I’m still puzzled by the lack of love for young David Hernandez. This is a guy that led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year and posted a 2.91 ERA in his time at Norfolk this year (his career minor league ERA is a respectable 3.87).

I get that he tends to give up a lot of hits and sometimes struggles with his control, but not to the point where you can write him off as a prospect. Anybody that can strike guys out like he does has a shot to stick. Maybe he’s eventually ticketed for a Boat Johnson role, but I want to see what he can do as a starter first.

He’ll get his chance while Koji is on the DL, and I think tonight represents an important step. He’s had enough starts up here to excise any butterflies and should be ready to go out and do what he does best.

My barometer of a Quality Orioles Start these days is six innings and no more than four runs, and that’s what I need to see from Hernandez tonight to feel good about the outing.

He’ll be opposed by one time Top Prospect Ervin Santana, who has struggled mightily this year (1-3, 7.47).

(photo via)

Just got finished reading a mildly interesting article in Forbes that blames the Orioles‘ attendance woes on the arrival of the Nats. Aside from the analysis here tending towards the overly simple, I’m astounded that the author (Tom Van Riper) actually gets the name of the Nationals’ owners wrong. It’s the Lerner family, Tom. Not “Werner”.

Beyond that, it seems to me that any kind of real analysis of attendance issues with either team is impossible until one of them gets good. If the O’s are in contention next year in August and are still only drawing 15-20 thousand per game, then maybe we’ll have something.

Somewhat related, here’s a long and absorbing piece on Peter Angelos, courtesy of the Daily Record. Some interesting nuggets in there, particularly Angelos’ assertion that he’d “insist [people] refer to me as a competent lawyer first. The Orioles are strictly secondary. Or maybe third or fourth.”

No doubt one of the whiners will grab that statement and complain that he’s not giving the team enough focus. This will be the same person who previously insisted that he had ruined them by meddling.

Meanwhile the black-and-orange are headed to California and a date with the Angels. It’ll be Jeremy Guthrie and John Lackey tonight in the first game of a seven-game west coast swing.

(photo via — you have to check out more of this fella’s work)

I’m not going to attempt to fully recount what happened last night. Truth is, the comments on yesterday’s post do a better job than one person ever could. That’s an organic, real, exhilarating read right there. True fans doing what you all do best.

Even in the light of day I feel no less excited. This fan base — the dedicated and frustrated alike — both needed and deserved a night like that. I wish I could eavesdrop in every office building, on every street corner, and in every pub today. For one day, at least, this really is Birdland.

Greatest comeback in Team history. Biggest comeback ever by a last place team against a first place team. Proof that Oriole Magic not only has a pulse, but is prepping for a massive reunion tour.

Speaking of Oriole Magic — I’d say now is a good time to link this again (mp3).

Phew. What a night.

And now we have Day Baseball on tap, with the Berger Cookie (he’s nearly earned that moniker) up against Josh “I have a hemp necklace, brah” Beckett. Let’s go get ‘em.

Listen here, unsigned “staff” writer from bostonherald.com: I demand satisfaction!

Smoltz, of course, has the advantage of facing the Orioles, a team the Sox have dominated of late. The Sox have held the O’s to just two runs over the last three games and are 5-0 against them this season. In fact, the Sox have won their last seven games against the Orioles and 11 of their last 12.

Facing the O’s is an “advantage”? Those are fightin’ words, right? Right…?

We’ll see what Rich Hill has to say about it.

Also, you may have noticed via Camden Chat that Matt Wieters likes country and Nickelback.

I still love the kid but did he just publicly admit to liking Nickelback? That’s like giving an interview where they ask your favorite foods and you say “a lot of spaghetti and a lot of moldy fish.” I mean, have at it but probably better to keep the info in house.

But, seriously, I love the kid. It’s just…Nickelback. Damn.

I’m feeling light-hearted today. Better than light-headed.

So are we happy with taking 1 out of 3 from the Red Sox?

I think Dan the Man put things in perspective when he asked that question a couple of posts ago.

The Sox arrive in Baltimore at 46-29, good for first place in the AL East. They’ve won six of their last 10, and on the season they boast the third-best team ERA in the AL (4.07). Across the board, their numbers are decent or better. They may have some of the most obnoxious, front-running, no account fans in all of Sport, but they can play some baseball.

So am I happy with taking one out of three from them? Absolutely not.

Every time the O’s play the Sox (and, though to a lesser extent these days, the Yanks) it’s a measuring stick. It’s a time to say things like “Bergesen sure has looked good, but how will he do against the big boys?” It’s an opportunity to gauge one kind of progress (that which we can see day in and day out) against another (where do they stand in relation to the true contenders). As angry and as upset as I can get, these are the wins I want the most.

So it’s 100% correct to say that they’re probably only going to win one out of three. But I’m not going to be happy with anything less than a series win, and on some level — right now — I actually expect just that.

It will take our best baseball to do it, of course. While I’m pretty sure even Felix Pie could get a hit off of John Smoltz these days, both Lester and Beckett have been all kinds of tough lately. On the flip side, only Bergesen (game three) has shown any kind of consistency this year.

Still, I’m feeling good about this series. Maybe there’s no way to really back that up, but I’m sticking with it.

Up first: Jason Berken and the aforementioned Jon Lester.

The Fremulon Insurance Prospect of the Week
Chris Tillman is one of our brightest hopes, yes? The young man has by all accounts dominated the International League despite just now being legally old enough to have a beer. However, he is entering (or has entered) the most important part of the season. In June, his numbers do not look quite so sparkly: 0-5, 3.89 ERA, and his strikeout numbers are down to 8.05 K/9 from 10.42 pre-June. The league is adjusting to him. He is still pitching very well, but things are dipping on him, and it will be very telling to see how he bounces back.

Norfolk Tides : 41-34 (2nd IL South)

• This is my theory about Michael Aubrey. I think that the Orioles see the value of their minor league teams competing for championships (the failure to do so led to the ending of their relationship with the Rochester Red Wings, which would later give me much chagrin), and picked up Aubrey to boost up the Tides chances in the “International” League. So, he’s not a prospect, he’s not really insurance, and we probably won’t talk about him again around here.

• Brandon Snyder hasn’t really picked it up since his promotion (neither has Jake Arrieta or Troy Patton, unfortunately), but that is to be expected with a 22 year old facing the best competition of his life. More troubling for me is the trend that has followed him around as a first baseman where his teams make a ton of throwing errors. The Tides have missed Snyder’s glove five times (all this week) since his promotion, showcasing why many think of him as a DH. I don’t expect Snyder to be a gold glover out there, but it’s hard to ignore that many passed balls.

Continue reading Break Up the Baysox: Week 12

One of my favorite quotes of recent memory came from a David Mamet interview in New York magazine. In discussing the “whole question of drama,” he defines it as such:

How does one make a moral decision? And further, that a moral decision is not the choice between wrong and right—that’s easy—but between two wrongs.

Such is the dilemma faced nightly by Dave Trembley, and, indirectly, by all of us. There are a great many wonderful things happening with this team, but they still have holes big enough to accommodate three sweat-soaked Florida evenings. There are nights where there simply is no winning move.

And yet there are some other nights (fewer in number but gaining) where the “easy” choice is actually an option. Maybe tonight is one of those nights? Having Brad Bergesen on the mound certainly helps. He’ll be up against Ross Detwiler (0-3, 4.76, 1.44 WHIP) in the first of three against the Nationals — a team I kind of like when they’re not playing the O’s.

(photo)

On my way out the door to handle some on-site duties for Ignite Baltimore tonight, so here’s the quick and dirty: Rich Hill vs. Sean West (2-2. 3.97, 1.26 WHIP).

Must win? Not really, but dropping three to the Fish would pretty much erase what we accomplished in Philly. I’d rather not see that.

I’ll be checking in after the game.