Never mind the Super Bowl. Seriously. If you can muster any enthusiasm for a match between the Patriots and the Giants (which is to say between New York and Boston) then you have something going for you that I neither have nor want. If I’m rooting for anything it’s for one team to win 3-0, the next best thing to the game not happening at all.

But there’s good news. We are now in the heady territory where we start to pack up the Hot Stove and turn our attention in earnest to that most lovely moment when pitchers and catchers report. February 18th for the Orioles if you don’t already have it marked on the calendar.

I’ve been kind of hands-off this year with the Hot Stove because, to be honest, there hasn’t been much to say. I do appreciate that Duquette has made strides in the international market and I like that the team appears to have more depth than at any point in recent memory. The problem is that today — before anyone takes the field — there’s no clear logic to how the 2012 team will be significantly improved from the one that let us down in 2011.

Perhaps that’s not fair. There is actually a clear path to improvement, it’s just not necessarily a likely path.

If one or more of the young pitchers finally emerge, and if Markakis rebounds, and if guys like Hardy and Wieters stay strong, and if Reimold finally gets a chance and cashes in on it, and if…you get the idea. If a lot of things happen, this team could surprise a few people. Maybe even us.

It’s not even crazy to think those things might happen. But I was hoping — still am — for something this offseason that would help tip the scale. Shoring up the foundation is great but it only goes so far.

That said, it’s not even February yet. A lot can and will happen between now and Opening Day. Whatever those moves end up being, I’m starting to feel that familiar and welcome excitement about spring and the return of baseball. Because, truly, that’s a great thing no matter the win-loss expectations.

One thing I have to note up front: as much crap as I have given (and will continue to give) Baltimore sports fans for their en masse abandonment of the Orioles I am nevertheless impressed by the energy in this city surrounding the Ravens. Wherever it’s coming from — and wherever it may go — it’s good to see for now.

And, as it happens, I believe said energy will both stick around and grow. For a few more weeks, at least. I think there’s an air of destiny about this group and I think they’ll handle their business up in Foxboro. Sometimes with a team like this you can just see, or feel, something. Plus it’s Ray Rice‘s birthday today and that’s just too perfect.

Have fun today, ladies and gents.

Quick programming note: I’ll be joining a collection of the area’s finest Orioles bloggers onstage today at FanFest to talk about all things O’s. Which, for me this year, figures to be an interesting proposition.

Reason being, I’m not sure what I’ll have to add this time around. I’m kind of in “wait and see” or, more accurately, “wait and hope” mode. Every move they’ve made so far this offseason amounts to fiddling around the edges. I like that they’ve added depth and revamped some of the front office positions but I’m not going to lie to myself or anyone else and claim that there’s tremendous reason for excitement.

Nevertheless, I’m always grateful to the team for the chance to offer my two cents in a public forum. If you’re down at the convention center today, my panel starts at 5:25. Stop by and say hi — should be a fun time.

First thing’s first, which is that I stand by what I said about Tim Tebow despite what happened up in Foxborough yesterday. He didn’t exactly play well but the assembled talent around him did no favors. I’m eager to see what he does next year with a full offseason of preparation as the starter. Assuming the Broncos don’t get spooked and look in another direction.

With that out of the way, here we are. Ravens-Texans for the right to face the aforementioned Bronco busters. January football in Baltimore with the home squad heavily favored. It’s the stuff that dreams are made of, no? For many of you out there I’m sure it is. So, regardless of the outcome, congrats on this day. Enjoy it because they don’t come around often.

As for the game itself I think we all know that if the Ravens play the way they’re supposed to play they win by 10-14 points at least. I think we also all know that if they fall asleep at any moment on Arian Foster or Andre Johnson then, well, they’ll get what they deserve. This isn’t a hard game to analyze.

As for the pick, I think the home team pulls it out but not without some tense moments along the way. Let’s say 20-17 Ravens.

Your picks/thoughts are, as always, both welcome and anticipated.

The most obvious locally-relevant fallout from Tim Tebow‘s latest miracle on Sunday is that it deprives Ravens fans of a chance to see their team face the Steelers a third time. Which is probably disturbing news to some, probably a sigh of relief to others. I think it’s clear regardless that the Steelers were in no position to contend for a Super Bowl anyway and likely would have lost had they worked their way into a chance to come to Baltimore.

But that’s not the thing.

Rather, the story is that Tebow now stands as living and damn-near-incontrovertible proof that intangibles matter.

Here’s a guy who by every conventional metric should be a nobody in the NFL. Virtually nothing about the way he plays quarterback suggests success, at least based on what we “know” about the position. Yet here he is.

He rescued the Broncos from utter irrelevance early in the season. That was crazy. He then sputtered down the stretch, giving rise to a tide of “I told you so.” Then he spent the first quarter of Sunday’s game looking like he couldn’t author a big play in a pickup game.

That second quarter was insane. Not only did he author big plays, he basically authored only big plays. Then he settled down again, the Steelers crept back in and then…well, you know how it ended.

You look at his final stat line — 10 for 21 for 316 yards and two TDs, and a rushing TD on top of it — and it just doesn’t make sense. A completion percentage below .500 coupled with two scores and a 31.6 yard average? What the hell? How is that even possible?

The answer is, it shouldn’t be. But every now and then you see this, guys who just do, conventional wisdom be damned.

Steelers linebacker James Farrior summed it up when he said, “They made more plays than we thought they were capable of making.”

Now, generally speaking, one of two things happen to guys like Tebow. They either flame out quickly or they end up rewriting the rules. Michael Vick — as much as I loathe him for his off-field conduct — deserves credit on the field because before him a quarterback’s running ability was always considered a bonus, never a primary threat.

More locally — and as a way of making a broader point — Cal Ripken rewrote the rules for shortstops. Before him, the idea of a big guy with some power playing that position was unheard of.

You can’t quantify guys like that because the surprise is what makes them who they are. Received wisdom binds us to what we can measure until someone comes along and shows another way. There really aren’t any rules, there are only things we say won’t work until someone shows us that they actually will.

I don’t know what the future holds for Tebow but I’m going to come right out and say that you, I, and everybody else would be crazy to doubt him. His skill set may not make sense but he gets the job done. After what he did against the Steelers, who am I — who is anyone — to say it can’t continue?

Enough folks have already been proven wrong going down that path. I’m not trying to join them. He might very well flame out but as far as I’m concerned he’s doing special things on the football field and the only logical response to it is, “what the hell, let’s see what this kid can do next.” Because, truth is, you never know.

I’ve been noting with a wary eye the raft of recent trade rumors surrounding Adam Jones (warning: Sun paywall link). There’s no doubt he’s one of the team’s best trade chips and could bring a decent haul in return. And, yes, a team in dire straits like the Orioles has to do the due diligence of considering any and every offer. But no matter. Trading Jones would be a mistake. A mistake of significant enough magnitude that it would seriously erode already iffy confidence in Dan Duquette‘s ability to handle the task at hand.

Jones’ bona fides as a player are understood. He can be generally expected in a given year — on a bad team — to hit around .280, belt 20+ HR, drive in 70-80 runs, and play credible (occasionally spectacular) defense. He’s not on what you’d call a Hall of Fame pace but he is a top-third player at his position.

But his on-field production isn’t why I say don’t trade him. Not by itself, anyway.

Jones is a star in the broader sense of the term. In an era when most players rank somewhere between “meh” and “boring” on the personality scale, Jones comes across as genuinely interesting. One glance at his Twitter feed shows as much. Put him on the Mets or Angels and I can guarantee he eventually lands in the front segment on SportsCenter for blowing a bubble while authoring a Web Gem.

Most any team would be happy to have a Gold Glove, All Star center fielder who’s actually fun to watch both on and off the field. That the Orioles have such a player, despite their woeful state, is a gift.

One that, I’ll grant you, would be more valuable if they were winning. Jones’ personality isn’t worth as much on a bad team as it would be on a good one. But this is precisely why they need to keep him around for as long as they can. If they start sniffing around .500 again then a certain percentage of lost fans will trickle back in, looking for players to fall in love with. As much as I appreciate Wieters and Markakis et al, they’re not exciting personalities. Jones is, and we need that both now and, more importantly, in the future.

The right move is to try — with two seasons of team control left — to sign him to a generous but reasonable extension. Lock him up for four years, buying out two free agent seasons, and turn him into a true cornerstone. Hope that by year two or three of that deal the team is back to respectability. A trade should be considered only — only — when all reasonable options to sign him have been exhausted. Get him out of here, in other words, only if he doesn’t want to be here.

I would like to believe that Duquette understands this. I’m fairly certain the communications folks do, though I haven’t had any specific discussions about it. But I’m worried. Worried that Duquette will rob Peter to pay Paul, worried that we’re about to be sold the fiction that Endy Chavez really has more upside than we realize.

To be fair, I’m not in the warehouse. Maybe for all I know Jones has already told the team through back channels that it’d take a ridiculous deal to keep him. But even if that’s the case, if Duquette trades Jones for anything less than a massive, lopsided return, he will be making a mistake that in all likelihood does as much harm as good, if not more.

Joe Flacco is a good quarterback. For his career so far he has 79 TDs to 46 INTs and has completed roughly 60% of his passes. In games he has started, the Ravens have won a lot more than they’ve lost. 43-20 in the regular season to be exact and, interestingly enough, 4-3 in the playoffs. There’s a “bottom line” kind of assessment to be made anytime Flacco comes up and that assessment is simple: he’s good. Maybe even very good. Certainly no worse than capable.

You would think, given Baltimore’s spotty historical record at QB, that Flacco would be (to quote) carried in the arms of cheerleaders. But he’s not.

Instead, he’s a constant topic. Radio callers and internet denizens alike wonder loudly and often whether or not Flacco’s “the guy” who can win this town another Super Bowl. They wonder because they look at Flacco and they don’t see the things they see in quote-unquote franchise quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady (among others).

They don’t see these things because these things do not exist. Flacco is not one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Anyone who’s watched him play over the past few years knows as much.

But let’s be clear about something: only a handful of QBs are truly great, truly elite. The fact that Flacco isn’t top-five or arguably even top-ten shouldn’t be held against him. It’s time for Ravens fans to realize that very good can be good enough.

Anyone waiting for Joe to “take the next step” and become a top-tier guy is waiting for the wrong thing. That’s not who he is. The expectation should instead be that he does enough. Because when he does, and when Ray Rice and the defense and the coaching staff do likewise, the Ravens are hard to beat.

Joe Flacco can’t put the team on his shoulders and send them to February with sheer will and talent. But so what? Most teams don’t have that guy. And even some that do — looking at you, Patriots — have such severe shortcomings in other areas that they’re not much better off. Ravens fans should be happy that they have a team built to win and a quarterback who can handle being a player in that scheme, even if he’s not capable of extraordinary things all by himself.

The Ravens might not win the Super Bowl this year. If they don’t, though, I highly doubt it will be Joe Flacco’s fault.

I’m a firm believer that all things move in cycles. Downs for every up, lefts for every right, good times for all the bad. With every reverse, of course, being equally true. We can’t have one thing without another.

Indeed, it’s within that constant push and pull that something akin to life happens.

Where we tend to get trapped, and where this idea becomes difficult to truly embrace, is in perspective. Timeframes can be distressingly long and outcomes can seem impossible in the face of process.

Take the Orioles for example. We’re so deeply embedded in the down part of their cycle that it’s easy to forget how good they once were, how they once stood among the elite of the American League. I’m sure nobody thought in, say, 1984 that the same franchise that just won the World Series would eventually go on a streak of 14 straight losing seasons (and counting). It’s not even a matter of that notion seeming impossible at the time; rather, who would have thought to consider it?

Yet here we are. And right now, the notion of them ever winning another Series probably seems far enough away that nobody is seriously considering it.

Similarly, I doubt many folks thought in 2006 that our country’s long-held notions of economic stability and what it means to be employed would soon be shaken so badly that we’d have to spend years rebuilding them.

And on we go. And as we go, we must remember the cycle. No matter how abstract a concept it might seem.

I had a hell of a Q4 in 2011. It started when my car blew up. It continued with the transition to a new job, which involved both placing my own small business on hiatus and also leaving the family business I’d helped out with for years (no small matter). I took major steps toward buying my first house. And got a new (to me) car. And confronted, engaged, and/or embraced dozens of other, somewhat less significant considerations.

Including, of course, my ongoing remake of what The Loss Column is and means. I said in a previous post that my goal was to post less but post better. Having no designs on competing with sites like Camden Chat that do such a good job of covering the Orioles day-to-day, I wanted to return TLC to its roots as a hub for longer-form thought pieces and good conversation, while simultaneously broadening the coverage to include more sports and more culture.

I feel good about where that effort is headed. I do, however, need to post more often and that’s what you’ll see in 2012, especially as spring training and baseball season itself get going.

Up, down, up again. As ever.

2012, my friends, is going to be an interesting year. Of this I am certain. I know it will be for me and I know it will be in general. I hope that translates into good things for all of you.

Be focused, be steadfast. And as far as this place goes, remember that your contributions and your time spent reading are the reason TLC exists. As long as you’re here, I will be as well in one form or another.

Cheers.

PS — I also want to invite you to visit my new(ish) site, which includes a link to my personal blog, as well as a link to a 2012 project that I’m extremely stoked about, Confirmed Stock.