Gut Check
![Jeremy \"Quality Start\" Guthrie](http://www.thelosscolumn.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/f6nhpxjs.jpg "Jeremy \\"Quality Start\\" Guthrie")
No meltdowns.
This is what #1 starters do, right? Stem the tide, right the ship, stop the bleeding, etc. And I have to say that I wouldn’t want anybody else on the mound tonight.
Quality Start Guthrie takes the hill with a four-game losing streak nipping at his heels, and I think he’s up to the task. Call it a hunch, but we’re not getting swept by the Pink Sox.
As of right now my plan is to be at the game, in my usual section 17, row A perch. Anybody else going?
This would be a good one to go to. Nice night, Q.S. Guts on the hill, it’s a Monday so the Yard won’t be as invaded.
Team needs to come up big for Jeremy tonight. Wait on that 79MPH Wakefield fastball if he can’t get the knuckler over. Bunt if you have to. Steal bases – he’s a good guy to run on.
GO O’S
Wow, I checked out how the Birds usually do against Wakefield. Not good. Hopefully they pull out of that tonight.
Here’s some numbers from ’03 to present versus Wakefield
Roberts 6 for 36 (that surprises me. I would think someone that is patient and works the count would be better against a knuckleballer)
Huff 6 for 33
Markakis 3 for 14
Ramon hits well 7 for 22, but he’s god aweful now so it doesn’t matter
Mora is decent though 9 for 33 (.273)
and Millar kills him 7 for 17 (.412)
The rest: (Payton 1 for 9, Cintron 0 for 3, Quiroz 1 for 2, everyone else has never faced him)
I agree though. I just don’t feel a sweep happening. It’s only June, hopefully we haven’t used up all the Orioles Magic yet. I hope there’s enough left that we don’t send the stupid Sox fans home that happy.
LETS GO O’S
Guthrie has been terribly unlucky. His ERA for the month of May was a mere 2.97 and he still came away with a losing record. On a good note however, of the two games he’s won this year one was against Boston. I think this is as good a time as any to feel a little Orioles Magic at the Yard, pull out a win, and not let this losing skid get any worse. Go O’s.
@ RD – ugh. I had it in the back of my mind that the O’s always struggle against Wakefield, but I didn’t realize it was that bad.
No matter — the O’s have to win tonight, and therefore they will win tonight.
It could just be that Wakefield has happened to be Good Wakefield when he faces the O’s. Because when he’s on point, the guy can dominate any team in baseball. But when he can’t locate or that knuckleball doesn’t knuckle, then he can be beaten pretty easily. But half the guys on this club can’t hit a curveball much less a freaking knuckleball, so there you go.
I’d like to get some bats in this lineup. I want Oscar Salazar and Nolan Reimold at some point. New blood. People who aren’t just infielders. DT seems content to spell Mora with Huff at 3rd anyway, so why do we continue to have Luis Hernandez, who doesn’t get in the game, and Alex Cintron, whose only big hit was the game winning Hawkins meatball that any of us could have served into the gap? Keep one of them for infield reserve and call up someone with at least the potential to hit a home run.
Interesting decision to be made with tomorrow’s starter, which DT hasn’t announced yet. Do we start Liz and send one of Cormier/Cintron/Luis/Trachsel packing? Do we move Albers into the rotation and just keep Trachsel in long relief? Do we release Trachsel, put Albers in the rotation, and put Liz in the ‘pen? In my opinion, Liz is still no where near being ready for the majors, but I’m not exactly pumped to be seeing Steve Trachsel pitch anymore. I also support keeping Albers and Johnson in their roles because it ain’t broke.
Wake’s career @ Camden
7-5, 3.98 ERA, 70K, 2 saves
just walked mora though
Huff doubles him in.
keep ripping aubrey.
we want to SELL HIGH!
I’d like to see Liz come in for Luis. Why not? He’s been alright at AAA, might as well see how much he’s progressed since last year at the big league level. Plus we’re gonna need someone to be the 5 guy until Loewen comes back, and it ain’t Trax, and I don’t want to see the delicate bullpen balance throw off – Albers has just been fantastic out of the pen. Keep him right there.
Everyone, say it with me – you get to 100 pitches, you’re basically done. No sense in pushing the line, because that’s when your effectiveness, or barring that your health, becomes an issue.
Another Quality Start for the Stormin’ Mormon, who is probably going to go murder someone after the game, and it should be whoever Trembley put in charge. Goddamnit.
Three straight singles! Killin okijima!
Markakis, Mora, Huff
Lets go MILLAR
Awww, no high five Jacoby?? HAHA
AJ, you look *beautiful* swinging like that in the black sox.
C
L
U
T
C
H
A.J.
This is looking like a win that will sting in seattle and I’ve been digging these.
Sherrill vs. Cash Ellsbury Lugo
Lets go 3 out 3 run SHERRILL SPITE SAVE
Superman Ellsbury wasn’t anywhere near close on that. He gets a Shelby Five, from Manny.
Wow…
…
I need to smoke a ciggarette.
I enjoyed Manny getting high fives for getting thrown out between 3rd and home…bet they coulda used that run, eh?
Of course I fucking played Pedroia instead of Jones tonight on the fantasy team. I swear to Cthulhu I am Stupid Stupid Stupid.
Big win – we needed it going to Minnesota. Let’s hope that the respite from these AL East powerhouses (this division is seriously ridiculous now, we should be allowed like 3 playoff spots just from these 5 teams) let’s the O’s get back into the swing of winning ballgames. Biiiig win.
Also, I’m starting to notice Adam Jones maturity at the plate. He isn’t getting quite as murdered on breaking balls anymore. Very exciting.
If you guys are still up, check out the hockey game on NBC; Detroit is hockey royalty and handing the Pens their asses.
Oh well, congratulations, thought we had it, but two bad decisions by Tito:
1. Not hitting for Cora with Sean Casey;
2. Not bringing in Hansen/Aardsma/Delcarmen vs Jones, who they were blowing away earlier in the weekend. A 95 mph fastball beats a 88 mph fastball, usually.
Anyway, before we move on to those first place Rays, a few thoughts on Camden weekend:
1. First of all, most Baltimore fans I met this weekend were terrific, probably better than we would be if flooded by NYY fans, etc. Several columnists and bloggers have praised the O’s fans for giving Manny his due on Sat. Kudos for that, but …
2. WHERE THE HELL DID THE ATTMAN’S STAND GO???? Don’t tell me they’re not at Camden anymore. One of the best parts of our 2007 visit. Oh well, do they ship?
3. The “Sweet Caroline” gag was funny … once, like last year. Thankfully, we were spared that on Sunday. Let John Denver be John Denver.
4. Speaking of the PA system, if you have to drown out “let’s go Sox” with the scoreboard and the PA, it’s lame, like being at a NBA game.
5. Kudos to the very nice woman in Sec 30, row GG who kept her O’s season tickets after her dad passed on, great lady, keep those tix!
6. Plug for the Hampton Inn – Camden, nice hotel, just get a room a respectable distance from Pickles on Sat night.
Anyway, we’ll see your boys at Fenway next week, come visit!
Thanks for your indulgence
Best,
CL
…..
I love hockey, you guys are missing the peak of probably one of the best Stanley Cups Finals in the past decade.
Oh yeah, we’ll all get a bus up there and grab some walk-up tickets, right?
damn cagey, way to blow all my stereotypes of New England sports fans!
Yes the PA system drowning out away team fans is hella-lame.
Also, best of luck against Kobe and the Lakers, let the greatest NBA rivalry re-begin!
@ AooR
LMAO
Yeah, what’s up with cageylefty being respectful, humble, and gracious? Stop making it hard to hate man!
It probably goes without saying but I’ll say it anyway: this was one of the best O’s games I’ve been to in awhile. I’d say the crowd was close to 50-50, maybe something like 55-45 Sox fans. But! When DigDug hit that double the place was mad. FlatBrim had the crowd fully at his back, and even when the tying run came to the plate it was still electric.
Great game, great win. NO MELTDOWNS.
As to the hockey, I’m a huge Pens fan (going way back to when I was 12) and so I’m off to (hopefully) catch them stealing a win in OT. Of course now that I’ve said that…
Neal, I really wish I could like the Pens, but…I can’t. They’re damn good, I will give them that. And the Red Wings every year are epically good, so this game/series right now is just surreal.
@ cagey: All good points, and it’s great hearing a Sox fan’s – I mean an actual baseball fan’s – point of view on this board, especially one that seems to really appreciate the Baltimore baseball environment. You’re right that the PA blasting the Let’s Go O’s kick drum is pretty weak. The O’s fans that know what’s up know to start that chant immediately after the Let’s Go Red Sox chant dies down. Sadly, the PA is required to make it die down in the first place more often than not. If there’s one thing I hope you take back to Boston, it’s that while O’s fans have been down a long time and they’ve been thinned out by bad teams and anti-fan management, the core is still very much alive and it’s on its way back.
Speaking of that core, it seems to me that it’s no coincidence that the three games the O’s have won against the Sox this year have all been games where O’s fans have either appeared to equal or out-number the Sox fans. The two-game sweep early in the year and today’s game. Add that one to the chicken-and-the-egg argument: do wins bring the fans back or do fans bring the wins back?
And finally, a farewell to Luis Hernandez who honestly will probably clear waivers and be back in the system anyway. What other teams need a light-hitting, semi-pro shortstop/second baseman with defensive issues? He just couldn’t cut it, but I’ll be rooting for him. Trachsel lives another day, the wily bastard, with that 8.xx ERA. Who knows, though, maybe his stuff will be a little better coming out of the pen?
I haven’t heard anything from you in a while. The deadline is past for the Dew Tour Media Signup. I already wrote out a letter on behalf of the loss column. But haven’t sent it as of yet. Email me back please.
I’ll show you the letter and we can move forward.
Neal, I keep seeing the Dew Tour commericals and wondered why you hadn’t spoke up about it. I thought that was kinda your thing.
Pittsburgh’s coming back slowly but…ah, they’ll be done in game 6 for sure. Besides, who can root for a Pittsburgh team around here anyway?
It’s Radhames Liz time!!!!!!!!!
stats are dumb. The Boat was the last guy who deserved the “win” last night.
but what a game!
Could easily be, and really “should” be at this point, a momentum swing for A.J.
I had said before the series started that my expectations were low and I would “enjoy not getting swept”
We played competitive ball for 3/4 games.
Had we won the first game and lost the last 3 it would be a different story.
I think this MIN series is a good chance to clean up that road record.
AJ loves those three run doubles, doesn’t he? That’s his second so far this season, and he’s got a great batting average with the bases loaded. And he does look sexy in those black socks. Anybody catch where he laid off that high fastball? That’s his biggest weakness right now, even more than breaking balls, so that was huge.
@ Joe, regarding our Oki text conversation: I agree that it was very few pitches to load the bases on those three singles and the righty in the ‘pen had not yet had enough time to warm up. But then you have the Mora play at the plate and then the Ramon Hernandez walk to load the bases again. At that point, with Okajima’s bad bases track record with the bases loaded, and with another right-handed bat coming up, you have to make that change. Come out to the mound and stall if you have to.
Minnesota kills us. Big test coming up for Brian Burres, who’s had two terrible starts back to back. Two more of those and you’re looking at that farm system yet again.
It was good to see Ramon super pumped after scoring that 6th run last night. I loved the story before the game about how DT brought in a Juan Samuel baseball card as motivation for “certain players” because on the back of the card it was a couple sentences of how Samuel ran out every ground ball, even grounders to short down a bunch of runs with 2 outs in the 9th, played the game right, etc. And that’s what you want on the back of your baseball card. DT, man.
The Man,
Who cares about Tito’s mismanagement of the game? Seems to me that Tito decided that Oki had to clean the crap out of his own bed.
Oki protected their late lead with three straight singles to start the 8th. He’s supposed to bring in Javy Lopez to fall on the grenade? Why? What’s the big difference?
More importantly, I’m still in awe of The Boat’s “win” :
- Walk
- Single on the very next pitch
- Wild Pitch on the very next pitch
- Single, breaks the tie and gives the sox a 3-2 lead.
- Bynum’s FC, makes a nice play to nab Manny at home.
- ANOTHER walk.
- Lucky GIDP because Tito didn’t PH Casey for Cora
Ugh. Lies. Damned Lies. and Statistics.
I think Bynum should get the Win (super heads up play) and Cora should get the Save.
Joe, stats aren’t dumb. Wins are dumb. That’s why us cultured baseball aficionados use K/BB and WHIP to judge pitcher and little else. I mean, are you telling me Guthrie is a sucktastic pitcher? He’s 2-6, that’s pretty dreadful, right?
Oh wait, 1.229 WHIP and just over 2 K/BB is pretty much waaaaaaaaay more insightful, eh?
It was weird, though, to see who I assumed were the best two relief pitchers each manager had in Johnson and Okajima come in and each be just terrible. Not even close to good. I really enjoyed Thorne’s comment “Good job by Johnson getting out of that” – my mom just about blew her shit “Yeah, he only loaded the bases and gave up the lead!”
By the way, the Boat stands tall with a 0.957 WHIP and 1.3 K/BB ratio.
I’m not terribly informed on WHIP and K/BB… what are good stats for that? What’s average?
Thanks Kona (go Celts!) and Dan –
Sorry, I like your city and people … cant say the same for certain other teams in our division ..
Best,
CL
I agree on Wins, Saves vs. WHIP and K/BB
I believe that under 1.00 WHIP is good and over 2.00 WHIP is bad (if 2 runners are on base each inning someone’s bound to score)
You have to take into account starters versus relievers, too.
The best WHIP ever was Pedro’s 0.737 in 2000, which is just nuts over 217 innings. That’s just sick.
Under 1 is disgustingly good, I imagine 1.5 is at or just below average, 2 is bad, for starters. Relievers, who need to have more 1-2-3 innings than not to be effective, obviously need a lower WHIP. Albers at 1.1 is pretty good, and Walker at 1.8 is just really horrendous. Olson at 1.421 is basically about average, and all of those guys’ WHIPs are pretty much what we’ve seen from them.
With K/BB, you can get as high as possible (including Carlos Silva’s ridiculous 7.89 in ’05, but I think generally over 2.5 is pretty good, but not great for a starter (the power pitchers we all know and love like Bedard last year was over 4 K/BB, Felix Hernandez gets over 3 basically year in year out, last year Beckett almost hit 5, so you get the idea).
For relievers, it’s different. Chamberlain and Rafael Betancourt in Cleveland were untouchable last year, with nearly a 6 and 8.88 respectively. Probably the greatest relief pitcher of our generation has a career 3.67 K/BB, that being Mariano Rivera, so that’s pretty much the high end. Jimmy’s K/BB ratio actually is pretty bad, but he’s getting away with because his WHIP rocks (and probably he’s getting a lot of help with BABIP).
Anyway, I hope that helped!
Speaking of using good stats to evaluate pitchers, what can we expect from Radhames (it, by the way, took me forever to figure out how to say that name) tonight and as long as he’s around?
He’s got about a 2.3 K/BB ratio ( nearly 9 K/9IP ) at AAA and about 1.33 WHIP and he goes about 5 and a half innings on average . And he was really dreadful last year in Bmore ( 1.946 WHIP and a 1 K/BB ratio at 9 K/9IP? Yeuuuuuuck)…so don’t get too excited about Liz just yet. I’d be real happy with 5 innings, 3 runs, 4 Ks, 2 BB, and satisified with 5 IP and 4 runs with 2 Ks and 2 BBs.
I don’t know where I got it from, but I was saying “Radhames” as “ROD-am”… like it was some foreign name with a silent S on the end.
Apparently it’s “RAD-eh-mus”. Cool name. He doesn’t really belong up here in the bigs yet.
No, he doesn’t, but who does? I mean this isn’t exactly one of the world’s top 10 rotations (yet), and most of our great pitching prospects are still very young (Erbe, Arrieta, Tillman)…so let’s just pray for a breakout performance from left field.
And, like an idiot I was saying “RAD-hames” everytime I saw it in print until I finally heard someone say “RAD-eh-mus”. Yup, I am very dumb.