Hot Stove Season: It Begins
Friday, November 14 (which would be tomorrow or today, depending on when you read this) marks the much-anticipated start of baseball’s second season: free agency. And with it, our Orioles Hot Stove hopes get rekindled for another run of “will they or won’t they.”
By now we all know the shopping list, which I’m grading in the following order:
1. Starting Pitching
2. Shortstop
3. First Base
4. Organizational Depth
And depending on how talks go with Brian Roberts regarding a contract extension, we might have to add Second Base to the list. I personally hope it doesn’t come to that, but the possibility exists that he will be traded. Jeff Zrebiec, in fact, thinks that’s exactly how it will go. One can’t help but wonder what kind of inside information he’s got, if any.
The full list of available players can be found here. With that, here are my predictions for how this will all play out, based on informed speculation.
The O’s will be in play for both Teixeira and Burnett
I don’t believe the team will be shy about spending this offseason, and I think that includes making serious and competitive offers to both of their marquee targets. Of course they figure to be bidding against the Yankees in both cases, so whether or not they even get close to either player remains very much an open question.
There will be pitchers.
Whether via free agency (Jon Garland, anyone?), trade, or the waiver wire, there will be several new faces on the hill come spring training. I put the over/under on pitcher acquisitions at four, and I’m tempted to bet the over. Even if they land a Burnett or a Garland.
The overall approach will be measured and conservative.
That’s what AndyMac has shown so far, and I can’t see it changing. This will frustrate us at times but it is the best strategic approach for the long-term. Even if it means missing a few targets.
I don’t think we should mistake this for a lack of aggression, although that’s something we’ll have to evaluate case-by-case.
MacPhail won’t forget that this is still a rebuilding team.
This is the one that probably nobody really wants to hear, but it’s true. This offseason is about building on the foundation for success that was laid last year. There’s a plan in place — finally — and it doesn’t involve desperation moves. Look for MacPhail to spend as much time on #4 above as he does on the other three.
Finally, I’m intrigued by one name in particular from the free agent list: Japanese shortstop Tomohiro Nioka. He’s still relatively young at 33 and his numbers in Japan are very solid. MLBTR says he might not be coming to America, but if he does I hope the Orioles give him a look. Given the paucity of options at the position, this could be just the out-of-left-field move we’re looking for. I wouldn’t count on it, but it’s worth considering.
With that, we’re off. I pledge to do my best to get Hot Stove news up as soon as possible after it breaks, but I also trust you guys to get it into the comments if I’m not around.
Let fly with your own offseason vision in the comments. I have a feeling we’re in for a ride.
But wait! The Yankees today traded Wilson Betemit and two middling minor league pitchers for an outstanding A pitcher and Nick Swisher, in what amounted to basically a salary dump for the White Sox. Brian Cashman was quoted as saying that Swisher was acquired to be played everyday at either the corner outfield spots or first base, possibly making spot starts in center. This, in my eye, effectively takes the Yankees out of the Mark Teixeria bidding, leaving – from what I’ve gathered – the Angels, Orioles, and maybe Red Sox as serious bidders (although you can expect some other mystery team(s) to join in on the fun…off the top of my head, I’d say maybe the Cubs, if they can get rid of Lee? Tex doesn’t especially make sense for most teams)
I read about that trade, but I’m not convinced it changes anything. If there’s any team that can make Nick Swisher a spare part and still have Teixeira as the everyday first baseman, it’s the Yankees. I could obviously be very wrong but I think they’ll still be there.
Granted, but even the Yankees must have some sort of budget that they don’t want to go over this year. Are you telling me they acquired the overpriced Swisher and are going to offer a $150 million plus deal to both Sabathia and Teixeria this year, when they have 2 other players who are probably destined to end up at first within the next 3 years (Posada and Jeter)?
I’m not saying they won’t. But Tex became secondary to the Yankees today, and I am saying that if I were Brian Cashman, I would forget about him.
picture an organization with a little dick and half a billion dollars to over-compensate and you have the yankees.
@BBM: bravo, my friend.
@Andrew: all true, and at the very least this isn’t bad news for the O’s.
By the way: I didn’t forget about doing a mid-week NFL post this week, it’s just that the uniform stuff to precedence.
I would like to at least see the MLB/AAA rotations look like this:
1. Guthrie
2. Free agent (happy with Burnett, Garland, Pavano here)
3. Free agent/Waters/Cabrera
4. Liz
5. Olson
Swing: Penn/Burres (cut/trade one or the other)
AAA
1. Albers
2. Patton
3. Bergesen
4. Berken
5. Tillman
Swing: Hernandez (cuz he’s destined for the bullpen anyway)
At the moment the Orioles can’t take anymore crap from Burres, Olson, Penn, Liz, Waters or DCab, bring up a AAA guy. We have so many options, I can’t believe that they would all suck so badly.
I mean, if we sign two FA’s, that gives us 15 pitchers to fill out a five/six man rotation. Why is this so damn hard?
Picking up some news:
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/11/13/orioles-unveil-new-uniforms-to-help-them-climb-out-of-the-al-eas/#cont
Interesting quote from this article:
“It’s a really special moment,” Powell told the estimated crowd of 2,500 today at an Orioles fan rally at The Gallery at Harborplace. “Even though I put it on for 17 years, I get just as much of a thrill putting it on this morning.”
2500? Really?
And I wanted to point out that the Yankees signed Nick Swisher to play 1B, so that should be a huge weight off of the Teixeira situation.
The 2500 attendance is standard PR “overblow you’re own numbers to make yourself more impressive looking” nonsense. Everyone does this. All the same, I’ve heard there were probably nearly 1000 people there, which is pretty cool considering the time it was, that it was mid-November, and Baltimore is supposed to be full-on Ravens-mania (which we are).
If Albers is healthy, I want him in his early relief role again. That’s a big, big IF – but he was my most valuable Oriole when he was around, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that when he went down the bullpen as a whole started to suck and the team fell apart.
Man, I hate Nick Swisher with every fiber of my being. I’m not joking about this. He is my Nemesis. For one, he kills the Orioles, you can look it up. Two, he’s so cocky. Visibly and infuriatingly cocky every time I see him on television. He is the opposite of Brian Roberts. A small, good baseball player who does good for the community, but who is somehow an absolute douche-bag when he plays the game of baseball. It’s makes the most perfect sense ever that he is a Yankee now, and I will enjoy the shit out of rooting against him in the AL East. What an asshole. Am I alone on this one?
Lots of guys mash the Orioles. It happens when the pitching staff has Brian Burres and Dennis Sarfate in it. Now a low blow… (okay, had to do it once). I hate Swisher, too (as does my Yankee girlfriend), but mostly because he’s horribly overrated and looks like a stoner. And hey – now he’s a Yankee, so Unholy Trinity completed! Plus, if it helps take the Yankees away from Mark Teixeria, I approve.
Face it like this: going from Giambi to Swisher is an upgrade on defense but a huge downgrade on offense, and we’re talking about defense at first base, so yeah…I think the Yankees will be a little less good in total next year (so far…).
Also, it’s Friday, free agency: GO!
Just found a very interesting article, courtesy of Dave Sheinin at the Post. Read it here.
He thinks the O’s will be more than just players for Teixeira, but will in fact make him the highest offer.
If there’s one thing that’s going to help repair Angelos’ legacy, it’s presenting the fans with its hometown stud wearing a brand new “Baltimore” road jersey. Hell, let’s get it done. As long as there’s pitchers.
Oh sure, when I say I think the Yankees are out of it and that puts the Orioles at a big advantage, you’re all like “I dunno….”, but when a journalist says it you’re all like “Oh really….interesting…”.
For the record, just as I said last spring that the season would be a success or failure based solely on the September record (of which we crashed and burned), the offseason grade I will give the Orioles is based almost entirely on what the rotation looks like going into Spring Training. The lineup has 2 holes in it, yes, and I’ve badly wanted Tex to sign here for years now, but if we end up with Orlando Cabrera and Mark Teixeria along with Paul Byrd and some other scrub – that is a huge failure, in my eye.
That said, sign freaking Teixeria up, huh?
Angelos will authorize a very serious offer for Tex. I think he feels he can repair his image with the fans a little with this one. The Angels will be the main competition, I think. The Nats are certainly intriguing as bidders b/c they have a crapload of money, but I find it hard to believe he’d sign there over the O’s, if he’s considering losing teams in the area.
I say Tex, Garland, a flyer on Pavano or someone similar, and Orlando Cabrera. That would be a good haul if you add another random starter. I like Burnett, but the more I think about him, the more I think he’s just too big an injury risk for the money.
Not so fast, Andrew. I’m still not completely convinced the Yankees are out of it. What I thought was interesting about the Sheinin article was mostly the last two paragraphs.
@sci: hahahahaha “losing teams in the area”
I would be thrilled if we signed Uehara as well. No more criticisms about international free agency… would do a world of good for McPhail.
1:30 and still not even one 100M+ offer from the Yanks
what gives?
my bad…
just realized the hot stove cherry popped last year with Torii Hunter but not until November 21st
patience is a virtue.
Burnett will be the first of the big names to resign and I say he stays in Toronto. They’ll give him one more year to make it a 5-year deal at around $80 million total.
I have a weird feeling there’s a team out there looking in the Tex sweepstakes that we don’t know about. White Sox? Tigers?
Also, I keep hearing mixed reports about Furcal. What do you guys think of him?
I think you might be right about Burnett, but the Yankees are going to do their best. They might just do with him what they’re going to do with Sabathia — take it to levels that no other team can even approach.
Weirdly enough, I’m starting to feel like we have a better shot at Teixeira than we do at Burnett, which would have seemed crazy a few months ago. But there is always that chance, as you mention, that another team steps in from the void.
I would absolutely take Furcal.
Re: Tex
I was thinking about a mystery team that could jump in, but we already know that these teams are set at first base and therefore would be wasting money on Teixeria, so I see them out of it:
Red Sox (Youkilis, and if they moved Youkilis to third, then they still have Lowell, plus they’ve got Lars Anderson coming up soon)
Rays (Pena)
Blue Jays (Overbay)
Tigers (Cabrera)
White Sox (Konerko)
Twins (Morneau)
Royals (Jacobs)
Texas (they’ve got Smoak coming up quickly)
Philly (Howard)
Braves (Kotchman)
Mets (Delgado)
Cubs (Lee and Vitters behind him)
Cards (Pujols)
Brewers (Fielder McTub-Tub)
Astros (Berkman)
Reds (Votto)
Pirates (LaRoche…although they might not be happy with him long term, but Alvarez is behind him)
Dodgers (Ethier)
DBacks (Jackson)
Rox (Helton)
Pads (Gonzalez)
Okay, so the teams without a first baseman already entrenched or coming up real soon (despite what you might think of those players like Mike Jacobs or Adam LaRoche) are thusly:
Yankees, Orioles, Indians, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Marlins, Nats, and Giants
(By the way…look at the NL Central’s first basemen. Sweet Zombie Jesus that’s a load of talent)
Ok, so we can cross some of those teams off the board because they aren’t spenders (and we’ll play along and say the Orioles are for the sake of argument), leaving us with:
Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Giants, and Mariners (one could make the argument for the Nationals to be on the short list, but I won’t because there’s a 0% chance he signs there in my mind). Now there are conflicting reports about the Yankees being in on Tex, and it would seem that their focus is pitching, and I really do not see how they can sign 3 pitchers, including the most overpriced pitcher ever, to a total of probably right around $210 million or so and then put in another $140 million more or so on Tex. Obviously, the Yankees can do pretty much whatever they want because they’re the only financial giants in the game anymore.
Anyway, from what I’ve heard, the Mariners are blowing it up, which would preclude them from our list here, leaving us with
Yankees, Angels, Orioles, Giants
And those are the only teams I can honestly see in this thing. When the Yankees got Swisher and focused away from first base, our chances when way, way up.
Nice dissection there Andrew. I think you’re right, although Boston may enter the picture, if only to drive the price up. I think it’s really between the Yanks, O’s, and Angels for Tex.
I’m totally veering away from Burnett. He’s so injury-prone, and you know the Yanks’ offer to him will be crazy. I’m really kind of hoping the Yanks sign both Burnett and Sabathia to insane contracts, and then see them both break down. That will not work out for them, guaranteed.
We can sign reasonable guys like Garland and still be a lot better. Randy Johnson anyone?
Kidding…
My thing with Boston is, if I were them, I’d do nothing. They have a strong lineup and a strong defense and a strong pitching staff. They need a catcher, so I’d probably trade for Salty or Teagarden, but that offense didn’t need Varitek last year. There’s a lot of talk about how they need a new big bopper to hit behind Ortiz, but where do they play that guy? Ortiz, Drew, and Lowell are all coming off injuries and while eventually none of those guys are going to be any good, they’re all bascally untradeable for one reason or another (Ortiz is a fan favorite too much, Lowell is hurt and aging and overpaid, Drew is too important and hurt too often for his contract anyway)…I just don’t see where the Sox can or should do anything to help their 2009 effort. That’s basically a complete team already. Sure, I can see them driving the price up for any particular free agent to hurt the Yankees or the Rays (their direct competition) but why get into a bidding war against the Giants and the Angels and the Orioles? And like I said, it would seem the Yankees aren’t in it (at least right now) for Tex anymore.
I’d like to discuss
-this newfangled concept of “overbidding”
-the pressure of the player’s union
-AL East vs. AAAA
***
Basically, I’m saying that if it were me, I’d take 100M less to pad my stats in the NL and try not to think about the 40M I gave up.
I think the concept of “overbidding” is just ranting from a frustrated GM.
I don’t think the Players Union will let CC sign anywhere except for New York.
But I think he’s bound to be a bust. I think this is all good news for O’s fans.
O’s signed Donnie Murphy, a 25 year old shortstop who played with the Royals and the A’s and is a career .191 hitter, but in only 325 ABs over 4 seasons. No real confirmation from Orioles.com or MASN, but he’s listed as an Oriole on ESPN.
Nevermind, this was on Schmuck.
My take on CC and the Yankees:
The Yankees are definitely overbidding based on three things: the only other offer on the board was 100 million (yeah Milwaukee had a point there), and that jump up is a little egregious. Also, they need to overbid because it sounds like money is the only reason CC would go to New York – and here’s little chance he turns down such a large amount of extra money. Lastly, Sabathia isn’t that good – he’s not worth this “best pitcher in all of baseball” money. Roy Halladay is. Johan Santana is. Sabathia? Not quite. Not in my book. Sabathia’s numbers skyrocketed when he went to the NL
Central, and they will come much closer to reality in the AL East against the Bays, Markakises, Longorias, and Rioses.
Anyway, in general I try not to pay too much attention to the Yankees, since there’s nothing I can do to stop them, the way they act is maddening, and because what they do will generally not affect the O’s gameplan. If they go after Tex, that changes of course, but generally nothing will change.
I doubt the player’s union steps in here at all. It sounds like either way he’ll be getting a huge bloated contract and who cares what he left on the table as long as the deal is not eschewing the market (and it won’t be…don’t forget the Dodgers have a shit ton of money to spend, too).
Giving Sabathia “Santana” money is definitely going to hurt them. Sabathia was atrocious with the Indians this past season. It wasn’t until he went to the NL Central with at least 3 underperforming teams that he found a rhythm. The AL East offense will not be kind either. The Ray and Sox both have powerhouse lineups, and the Orioles were no slouches last year either.
I can only hope they do it. With Sabathia and Swisher, those situations definitely take some heat off the Teixeira race from the Yankees.
So this is kind of cool: My friend Jeff manages an auto detailing shop north of the city. A J Burnett rolled in the other day to get his car done, and he and Jeff had a nice talk. Jeff says he was really cool, and Jeff asked him point blank if he was coming to Baltimore. In Burnett’s words – “That’s the plan.” Just talk I know, but it’s an interesting story isn’t it?
Wowwwwwwwwwwwwww
I’ve heard like a gajillion of these stories now. A lot more than you usually hear, especially about the Orioles. It would seem interest is more than mutual here, but as always money talks…and we’ll be up against the Yankees.
Frankly, I’m not even sure Burnett is the right guy to go after. He’s had 2 pretty good years, both contract years. He’s proven to be brittle. But he’s entering his prime now – if he’s really finally putting it all together, like his agent claims, now would be about the right time to do it. And he’d certainly be an upgrade over Daniel Cabrera and Alfredo Simon and whoever else is waiting down there.
Anyway, I guess we’ll just wait and see…but I swear I’ve heard private stories about Burnett wanting to play for the O’s at least a dozen times now.
Damn, I thought I had a unique little story there. Oh well.
I’m not convinced about Burnett either. Just too injury-prone, but I’ll take anyone decent who actually seems to want to play here.
You know, I don’t think it’s really a good plan to worry about whether someone is going to get injured or not. All you can do is hope that Burnett comes here, provides a solid #1 to Guthrie’s #2, and pray for the best with the 3 4 and 5. I have a strong reason to believe that with full seasons under their belts, Olson and Liz will look sharper, Albers will return in full form, Burres will be able to see the catcher signals, Penn will stay healthy … and in the event any of that doesnt work out … Water, Patton, Berken, Hernandez, and Bergesen will be waiting to pick up the slack.
You see, unlike last year, the Orioles actually have AAA depth, and I think that will help carry us into August and September … perhaps helping us to win at least 80 games. I think that would be pretty nice actually.
Winning Team Hot Stove
I think this is rather different than the general “Burnett says he wants to come here” rumors because this is only 2 degrees away from Burnett himself. This isn’t Burnett’s agent telling ESPN that he’d be interested in coming here. This is Burnett in Baltimore telling sci’s buddy that it is, in fact, his plan to come here. I think it’s pretty significant. A rumor, sure, but a significant one.
Greg, I tend to agree with you on the injury thing. We’ve had all of our young pitching prospects get injured worse than Burnett has ever been injured, so.. what the hell, let’s get him.
My point is, would you have second guessed the trades we made last year, if you knew Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Adam Jones would all spend significant time on the DL last year?
I mean, anyone can get injured at any time. If we sign Teixeira to an 8-year contract and his first hit as an Oriole winds up with his left leg falling off while jogging to the base… that’s just not something you can worry about. People get injured who have never been injured before, and injury prone players can go for a whole year without being injured (like Burnett did).
Take AJ Burnett for what he is as a pitcher, not as a potential DL’ed pine rider.
Taking injury history into account for a long-term investment is just good business. Would you sign Mark Prior and then rely on him to be an anchor for the rotation? (Burnett’s history is not as bad as Prior’s, but you get the point.)
That said, I’m all for taking a chance on Burnett, especially as he seems to really want to play here, as long as the terms are relatively reasonable. I’m just not totally sold on him as a long term investment to anchor the rotation. That’s all I’m saying.
I mean that I’ve heard lots of stories just like sci’s where it’s a friend of a guy I know who met Burnett while he was in the Wegman’s in Hunt Valley or something like that. Even Drew had one about Burnett talking to Brian Roberts about how he was looking forward to 2009 in Baltimore during the season.
I’m in favor of taking a chance on Burnett – depending absolutely on how much we get fucked in the ass on the contract – simply because we don’t have anyone who can do what he can do even if he only starts 20 games. But there’s no way in the world I want to give him 4 years 55 million…but on the other hand, I don’t know what the Orioles payroll budget looks like in this and the coming years. That’s sort of the big, important key to the puzzle that we don’t have.
I don’t think anyone is asking Burnett to be a long term investment. But if he stays healthy and performs in the rotation for the next four years, there’s nothing wrong with him being here.
At his best, Burnett had a K/9 ratio of over 9. He lead the AL in strikeouts. Thats an awesome statistic. He would certainly be a quality number 1 starter for the Orioles for the next four years and that would thrill me.
At his worst, Burnett gets injured somewhere along the way forcing management to shut him down and start someone like Bergesen in his place.
You have to take injury history into account, but I don’t think it’s a deal breaker.
Anything over three years is a long term investment for a pitcher, in my opinion. But you are right, he’d look great in the rotation, and uninjured, he’s got a good four years in him for sure. What the hell, let’s just go get him…