Orioles Run the Gauntlet
Let’s focus on this much, at least for tonight: the Baltimore Orioles are 44-43 on July 7th. It’s true that’s only good for fourth place, but it’s roughly 8-10 wins better than any of us would have guessed.
I know things look bad. I know a 3-4 homestand against less-than-elite opposition is troubling. I know the starting rotation is jacked up and that the trickle down effect has strained a once mighty bullpen. It’s all true.
But let’s not panic just yet.
The next six games heading into the All Star break — three at Toronto, three at Boston — should tell us quite a bit. A split would be huge but 2-4 would actually be satisfactory. That’d leave us at 46-47 at the break — very, very reasonable.
It all starts tonight as the DC Cab motors across the border for a rendezvous with Dustin McGowan.
And since tonight is a Tuesday it means I’ll be in-studio with the Fighting Ungers from 6-8. Tune us in at AM 1570 if you’re in/near the city, or give the (probably still broken but try it anyway) internet stream a try at wnst.net. Today’s bumper music selections include The Roadside Graves, Elefant, Tom Waits, Sahara Hotnights, and The Postal Service. Should be a good time.
My biggest concern is what happens if a starter goes down. Penn comes up? Smells like bad times for this club if that happens.
Ha.. man, that’s a good point. I figure Cormier gets a spin in the rotation before Penn does, although he had a nice start yesterday.
I like your eclectic music selections, Neal. It seems to throw the Ungers a bit, and that’s always funny. I’ve been thinking it’s interesting that you are on NST once a week while still being able to criticize it a bit and have the occassional (now rare) spat with Drew in the comments. I think that says a lot, at least to me, about the quality of NST’s character. I’ve been a harsh critic of the station, but the more I listen, the more I realize I really dig the majority of the hosts on there and the general vibe of the station.
I had Guantlet 2 for the NES. ROCK.
Also, what happened to anti-spam question on the Viviano post? It won’t let me comment. I think, though, that’s hilariously fitting that there hasn’t been one comment on there. I’ll wait until it’s fixed to go into what I mean.
One last thing: things are bleak right now, but I don’t really see Toronto as a big threat. McGowan and Burnett are both hovering just under 5 with their ERA. Guthrie/Halladay should be a great matchup. I think we can grab 2 if our bullpen gets its shit together.
And with Boston – I dont think they’re as intimidating as they once were now that Tampa trounced them. Plus the O’s might even rather play them in Fenway than in Camden.
intentionally walk stairs to get to rolen?
is rios that fast?
i see that as a potential DP
enough second guessing, lets go boat
bye bynum
giving up leads late in the game? Welcome to 2007 Redux.
buck bynum
OK OK, I enjoyed the great games while they were there, viva la lost season and all that, but this stupid stuff hurts. Poor Trembs. I look forward to more Fahey than Boom-Boom Bynum.
Two plays at shortstop that may have helped save this game— completely booted. Castillo, Sarfate… couldn’t get it together. Cabrera looked awful IMO tonight, he was walking people like crazy, but somehow getting the DP. We gave them this game on a platter; the Orioles beat the Orioles tonight.
Well, the pitching and defense took the night off. That’s all. Turns out you need that stuff to win ball games. Seriously, though, without Matt Albers our bullpen goes from one of the best to one of the very worst. Everybody has to scramble to get put in roles that don’t make sense for them and the whole house of cards burns up. It happens to everyone.
And yes, there’s part of me that’s glad – if we get rung up from here until the end of the Detroit series they’ll be no excuse for not trading off everyone.
I’m kind of happy I didn’t get a chance to watch this one. Actually, very happy.
It occurs to me that I’ve been looking at the trade situation the wrong way. I’ve been thinking that we have two options:
1. Stand pat and try to make the most of a pretty amazing season, then examine where we’re at come October.
2. Continue with wholesale rebuilding at the expense of ’08.
In truth, there’s a third option: move guys in a strategic way that both restocks us for the future and fills holes in the present.
I think that we could get something legitimate for Huff, and we might be able to get something decent for Payton or Hernandez. We could probably score big by moving Roberts or Sherrill.
Maybe there’s a way to leverage those pieces in such a way that we stay competitive by getting major league-ready talent in the bullpen and at SS. Maybe we can straddle the buyer/seller line and actually get better all around — not just as a this year/next year proposition.
And by “maybe” I mean “we pretty much have to do this.”
Things look bleak for sure, but let’s not freak out. There are worse positions to be in than the one we’re in now.
True. But the wheels are off. I mean, come on.
Also why does everyone keep saying we can trade Hernandez?
Because decent catchers are hard to come by and Hernandez has a very solid track record. He’s not going to net a Bedard-type return, but he’s not a scrub.
I don’t have the energy right now to break down his stats compared to other starting catchers in the league, but my gut says he’s pretty much in the middle. I might be wrong, but for the sake of argument let’s assume I’m correct. If I am, then the prospect of a guy with a good reputation and decent stats could intrigue a contender. Let’s not forget that he’s not that far removed from good seasons and he’s still the best catcher we’ve had here since, what, Charles Johnson? Am I forgetting someone?
This is all off the top of my head and I’d need some research to know if it’s 100% true, but that’s my answer for now.
So he’s a “solid” catcher with stats “in the middle” but he’s also only a few years “removed from good seasons”…sounds like he’s having a bad season to me, and an expensive one, to boot. And syaing he’s the best catcher since CJ doesn’t mean much to me. Okay, so he’s better than Geronimo Gil and Javy Lopez. Whoop-de-doo.
For the record, Ramon is OPSing an underwhelming .668 – alarmingly good for 11th out of 30. It would seem that after the top 4 catchers, the position falls off quickly. But com’on. What team is giving up anything for a guy who is vastly overpaid this year and next and doesn’t represent a huge upgrade?
The same group of people who would trade for John Parrish or Steve Trachsel. Look at what we netted in those two trades: 4 minor league prospects- Moore, Cherry, Renshaw and Boucher. Hernandez has better stats than both those guys and catchers are hard to come by. You could expect AT LEAST 2 A-class prospects for Ramon. At the very least.
Yeah, Andrew, I think you have to separate your feelings about Ramon the Oriole from the market value of Ramon the catcher. You said it yourself: the position is thin league-wide. He can still hit a little and he can still play very respectable defense, which means that there might just be a team who will consider him an upgrade.
Another thing likely on MacPhail’s mind is to maintain a sense of progress with regards to the Orioles so that guys like Marky Tex actually consider coming here. Because if I’m Tex, I want to go somewhere to win and the O’s are showing that that place isn’t here yet, and I doubt Tex wants to wait the next 2 or 3 years of rebuilding.
Man, I can’t believe these losses. Complete 180 back to “expecting to lose”, in the span of about a week or two. Can anybody get an out? Matt Albers or not, somebody has to be able to come in for one freaking inning and get three outs. That’s not too much to ask in the least, and it doesn’t constitute as putting someone outside of their role. It’s just an inning of relief. I say we bring up Leicester for the long role. He’s been good in that role in AAA and he throws strikes. Then you can have everybody in their normal roles.
Its reality check time. I agree that playing .500 ball is respectable for what the expectations were, but there is absolutly no excuse for losing games that should be won. no excuse for beating ourselves. the sunday nats game, the monday KC game, the sunday texas game, and last night. Lets just hope the all star break can revive the team, and hopefully before the deadline we make at least one quality move. With McPhail at the helm im sure it will be quality.
I’m sure the cardinals are ready to deal now that the cubs and brewers have accuired ace caliber pitchers. St.Louis will want to keep up to stay in contention. dont know who we should give up, just saying they’re probably most likely to deal next.
Freddy friggin Bynum, Nice hands feet. Nuff said.
As for Ramon… heres a guy with better numbers accross the board then the AL all star starting catcher Jason Varitek. he’s only 2 years off of a 20+ home run season, and though he only had 9 last year, he only played about 100 games. His hot bat lately has upped his average to over .250, which would look a little more sexy to teams if we deal him. I’d be fine with quiroz being the starter the rest of the year. A number of teams could use a veteran catcher. Remember when we talked about “dead weight”. Ramon is one of those guys who if we dont dump him soon, he’ll be dead weight like mora.
I’d like to see huff stick around this year. Next year is his contract year, so god knows where his numbers will be then, there may be more upside to him this time next year. especially if we are more improved, and in a position to make a legit playoff run at the break. (like 5 GB or less). And his numbers could be huge if he bats behind say, oh, i dont know, mark texieria.
Leicester is a guy I totally forgot about. This bullpen is quickly devolving into last year’s staff though. I can only imagine Sarfate’s injury is right around the corner.
As for Ramon, to trade him we need to find a contending team that is in need of a catcher upgrade who could hypothetically upgrade with Ramon. So, let’s list the contenders in the AL:
Boston (set), New York (set), Tampa Bay (set), Chicago (set), Minnesota (set), Detroit (set), Oakland (set), Texas (set set set), and LA (not set, but wouldn’t be upgrading).
In the NL:
Philadelphia (maybe), Atlanta (set), Florida (no way they take on a big contract), New York (maybe), Chicago (set), Milwaukee (set), St. Louis (set), Arizona (not set, but wouldn’t be upgrading), LA (set).
So, we’re looking at short list of trade partners: the Phillies and the Mets. Brian Schneider is, all things considered, playing about the same as Ramon Hernandez (OPS+ 70 vs. 78, CS% 37ish vs. 21). So is that really an upgrade the Mets are going to give up money (a lot of it) and a couple of low prospects for? I doubt it, seeing as their problems are the pitching and bullpen, specifically.
So, Philadelphia. That’s the only reasonable place I can see Ramon Hernandez going. And I don’t see it. I just don’t. The contract jump the Phillies would have to take would be enormous, and while Hernandez is definitely an upgrade over Ruiz…I just don’t think Pat Gillick is going to get roped by MacPhail. He’s too smart for that shit.
Pray for injuries at the catcher position on playoff teams.
What I’m saying is it going to take more than an injury like that on a playoff team. Ramon’s signed for a lot of money through next year. Most of these competing GMs aren’t that stupid that if a guy got hurt they’d trade for an expensive catcher who won’t have a place on the team in 3 months, but will still be getting paid to have no place. Sure, Minaya and Hendry might be, but most of these guys are waaay smarter than your Bill Bavasis and so on.
I just hope there’s some way to get rid of the guy. His lazy demeanor behind the plate is souring the whole vibe of this team.
No doubt, I’m with you all. If we can trade Ramon for anything at all that involves someone else paying him (I assume not totally) and us not having him then we’ll have won the freaking lottery. I don’t think he has a bad attitude, though, I think he just isn’t mobile. It happens when you’re a catcher over the age of 30. But he just isn’t very good at anything right now (although his bat is slowly coming around), and that sucks when we need our defense to tighten up more than ever.
.500 on July 9th (who saw that coming?)
Bright spots in the future (weiters, chris ray’s triumphant return)
I can dig it.
Let’s move some dead weight and get ready for next year.
Stay Positive people.
***
Alright Andy,
Your 5 anti-Ramon posts in a row justifies the following Rant slash theory:
Let Quiroz start after all star break until september.
(We’re assuming they do “something” with Ramon, for the sake of this arguement let’s assume he’s traded to seattle for a DVD of erik bedard’s press conference and a Ken Griffey Jr. rookie card)
Quiroz is your guy to play out the rest of the deck.
Weiters backs him up. Plays 1 out of every 5 games, absolute maximum. ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM.
I was absent the day they had math class. I need to work this one out.
Half a season is 81 games. 20% of that is like 16 games. Multiplied by 4 at bats per game, brings us to my questions:
-Could Quiroz possibly be worse than Ramon has been?
-Isn’t 75-100 at bats for Weiters at the major league level, likely against nasty division opponents like the rays, pinks and yanks, FAR SUPERIOR training than whatever amount he gets in the minors?
Considering that his preperation is for playing major league baseball
That way you can RUSH weiters to the club, but not necessarily rush his development.
I disagree with that for the same reason MacPhail sent Moore back down to Norfolk: It’s better for Wieters to play everyday minor league ball then to play every fifth day major league ball.
No reason to bring him up to have him sit on the bench, we aren’t going to win a championship next year, and even adding him won’t bring us any closer to that goal anyway (eg Jay Bruce/Reds). We have so much to fix, our problems at catcher are merely the tip of the iceberg, so there’s no reason to put the pedal to the floor on Wieter’s progression to the majors. He’ll get here in due time, as will our shortstop, our first basemen, our bench outfielder. By the time they arrive you’re already looking to trade or replace Roberts at second base and Huff at DH. It’ll be awhile.
Was I only at 5 in a row? We can top that. I heard Ramon hates America and burns the flag every night after the game while singing softly to himself in Russian.
RAMON HERNANDEZ IS RUINING OUR AMERICAN HOMES.
HE IS THE CAUSE OF ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS.
Matt Albers didn’t tear his labrum: Ramon Hernandez tore it.
Adam Loewen? You can bet that Ramon broke that bone both times. Is it a coincidence that Adam didn’t injure his elbow until Ramon got here?
Ramon Hernandez was totally against the Trembley and MacPhail hirings.
Little known fact: Ramon Hernandez actually batted in 7 of the 30 runs Texas scored against us last year.
Aw shit you guys are going to get me fired.
It will play out like this:
The Guy: containing rowdy laughter
Bossman: what’s so funny?
The Guy: Ramon tore Albers labrum
Boss: That’s not true nor is it funny, you are fired.
Orioles Fun Fact!
Ramon Hernandez’s face can be seen in the smoke from the Twin Towers.
Oh, man…this is gonna get (has gotten?) ugly…