O’s-Angels Rubber Match/Trembley
As linked by Ryan in the previous thread, the Orioles have faith in Dave Trembley and it looks like they’ll almost certainly be picking up his option for next year. Kind of a no-brainer, yes? Still good to see.
He’s done a hell of a job after all, a point which would be amplified immensely if the O’s were somehow able to pull off a win today and, in doing so, take a road series from the best team in baseball.
The task falls to young Garrett Olson and his frustrating inconsistency. He’ll be opposed by Ervin Santana.
I don’t think the Orioles will win this game, but I think they could win this game. I’m not sure I would have said that a few days ago. There’s a little bit of Orioles Magic back in the air.
(PS — I’d like to think that whoever writes headlines at the Sun is a Loss Column fan.)
HIGH-larious re: The Sun headline.
Great news! This is good slap in the face to anyone who thought there was a big enough “rift” between DT and MacPhail to not get this done. As if Andy wasn’t a smart enough baseball guy to know a good manager when he sees one.
Trembley is truly a gem of a manager, and I know MacPhail’s a smart guy. They’ll lock Trembley in and treat him right contract wise – the same way they will ensure Markakis is around for a long time as well.
I also have a gut feeling we’re somehow gonna pull off another W tonight . . I realize the odds are against it based on who the Angels are starting, and their record, etc., but. . .we’re gonna win.
Coming in, I thought tonight was our only shot. Now we have a shot at a third straight road series win. Santana’s very good at home, but all the same, if Olson pitches like he’s been…who knows?
I would’ve gladly taken a Chris Waters shellacking to get my suggested headline in the newspapers.
Actually that’s a lie. WTB
Jeez…what a night last night for the organization. Between the Keys and the Orioles, only 2 hits were given up. Whew.
Everyone seems to want to know if Waters act is a fluke or an indication of some outstanding, late-blooming pitcher we’ve inadvertently stumbled upon. I’d be leaning towards fluke, but he showed such poise and intelligence, not to mention stuff, that I have a hard time believing he happened to have his best outing ever just then. Once the league catches up with him he might get beat up (well, he will get beat up)…but in the meantime he can certainly be useful, more than Sarfate, Burres, Liz, Loewen, Patton, and Trachsel anyhow.
Today, Olson. Go 6. Offense. Score 6. Success!
ESPN’s John Manuel on Lou:
I’m working on our Eastern League best tools and Top 20 prospects, so I’ve talked to a lot of people lately on Montanez. It sounds like he can contribute as a 4th outfielder, or perhaps a starter on a second division team. His swing is short and he’s locked in, leading the EL in triple crown categories by a wide margin. He’s “only” 26, but he’s finally tapping into some of the talent that made him the No. 3 overall pick in 2000. I might be more optimistic than I should be, but the managers and scout I’ve talked to in the EL are saying the bat is for real
Montanez is getting the start in LF tonight, so it’ll be interesting to see what he looks like. I’m really glad he finally got the call – I just wish it was because Payton had been traded or released…
The rOller cOaster season continues
One minute we have a new superman
The next were back to Jimmy Olson’s Blues
This team is making me bi-polar. I love it but right now I really hate it.
well olsen blows today. all we can hope for is the bullpen to be stellar like monday and give the offense a chance to creep back into it. and its now 9-1 as a type this. lovely.
dude, WATERS, SERIOUSLY. He made every pitcher on the staff except guthrie look silly. He just threw strikes. Nothing special. Hmmm. what a concept, as 5 walked batters have scored in this game.
MONTENEZ. AB/HR ratio of 1.0. thats HOF type stuff. AJ on the DL aside, I thinks the O’s are ready for him to be here for a while assigning him number 3. not 74, or 68, or something ridiculous. What do you think, Millar is released, Huff moves to 1st, Luke DH’s, and Montenez starts in LF in 09′
I know Montenez has had 1 AB, and Waters has pitched only 1 game, but if this is any kind of sign of things to come from the rest of the farm system, then O’s fans will be in for a treat for years to come.
They just said Montenez prefers to go by Lou instead of Luis. so we have a Loooooooooooooouuuuuuu, and a Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuke. Lou is now 2-2. HR/AB ratio is now 2.0.
besides the sweet originality of that sun headline, the best part of the article was DT’s quote about Waters remaining in the rotation…
“That’s like asking if on Halloween, they’re going to have trick-or-treating.”
Does that mean that after like one more halloween there might not be candy for my still young at heart dressed up ass?
2 home runs per at bat? That’s curious.
Olson stunk it up. So it goes. Bring on Texas.
Olson is one mistifying dude.
Sweet Swingin’ Lou! Goodbye Jay Payton.
Olson’s latest performance is another example of how important head and heart are to successful pitching. Olson has the tools. Now, he must use his head and his heart to become consistently good, which he’s capable to doing.
Montenez: nice start. He was hitting a ton in the minors, so let’s hope it translates well up here.
Anytime you have a winning road trip – you’re ahead of the power curve. Do that all season and couple it with the expected greater than .500 margin at home and voila! you’re in the playoffs.
Yup, bring on the Rangers. Go Guthrie! The real fireworks will be provided by the O’s during the game.
It’s important to remember that Olson is only in his second year (first full year) of starting in the majors. And he isn’t wild ala Daniel Cabrera, so there’s reason to assume he figures it out and stops nibbling. He really reminds me of Erik Bedard circa 2004. I don’t think he’ll achieve the ace status that Bedard got stuck with, but he’ll definitely wind up a capable major league pitcher for a while, unless he gets hurt.
Heard the best excuse yet as to why Sarfate remains in the rotation: here he has to work on his secondary pitches, because no starter can rely on just a fastball. I guess that makes sense, especially when you consider: 1) We aren’t going to finish .500 without Adam Jones and Matt Albers, and 2) Sarfate has to on the major league squad, so the only place he’ll get regular work like that is in the rotation.
But Hayden Penn continues to pitch well. He has to come up sooner or later, right? Most people I’m reading are penciling him into the rotation next year. For my part, I can imagine the rotation looking like so:
Guthrie-Cabrera-Olson (that’s a given) winner of competition: Penn-Patton-Liz-Albers-Waters-Burres (should be Penn, honestly), veteran free agent (one of: Lowe, Mussina, Burnett, Moyer, Garland, Byrd, Jennings, Hendrickson, Dempster…I wouldn’t have a problem with any of those guys, honestly)…but I don’t think there’s much chance of any of those guys except Olson and Guthrie being a part of the ultimate solution (maybe there’s a better choice of words for that). However, we sit here 2 years at least away from Tillman, Hernandez, Matusz, and Arrieta. And do you want 3 or 4 rookies in a rotation all at once?
football football football football football football football football football football football football football football fuck New England football football football football football football football football football football football
I wouldnt mind having any of those free agents andrew mentioned, except for Mussina. Seriously, Fuck him. We offered him something like 78mil and he left for about 84 mil. Ok, when you get say over the 30 mil mark, does 6 mil more really friggin matter. He left in search of a championship, to our most hated rival, which was more heated than it is now. Has he won one yet…nope, good ridance. Fuck him. If you wanna bring back a former O, bring back Moyer. He’s got more wins than anyone else on the team, and an AARP card.
Burnett looks like the most likely candidate though. Baltimore resident, I think I heard his family still lives here, and his kids are enrolled in school here. He leads the leauge in K’s, which means he throws strikes. Thats the name of the game right?
“Guthrie-Cabrera-Olson (that’s a given)” – Yes, correct.
Penn- Has to be on 25 man roster, so yes… or he pitches out of the pen.
Patton- Doubtful he starts in the majors without having pitched in a year. My guess: He starts at Norfolk for a little while, and if he’s any good gets a call up. I don’t know his contract status or his options, I’m just assuming.
Liz-Likely to be the 5th starter.
Albers- He won’t be pitching until after the ASG at the very earliest, so I wouldn’t worry about this. He hasn’t even done the surgery yet.
Waters- Jury’s out on this one, I don’t see how it’s possible to be terrible in AAA but good in the MLB. Once the scouting reports go out on him, I don’t think it will be very long before he looks human.
Burres- Likely to perform as swingman. Can’t really see him returning to the rotation, unless they feel they could use the lefty along with Olson and Penn/Liz moves to the pen.
I don’t see any free agents being signed… at what point does Jeremy stop being young and talented and becomes a veteran? 2009 will be his third year as a starter right? And DCab isn’t a veteran yet either? The presence is there, and you don’t need to hire an old guy just for the sake of having an old guy. Fangraphs wrote a blog about this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/proven-veteran-starters
Also don’t forget that Norfolk will be ripe with talent… likely to see a rotation of Patton, Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken, and maybe Waters. Tillman is too young for Norfolk at this point… I think he needs to work on his command. Leicester, Mitchell, Anderson, Kiesler and Bukvich… well I can’t say any great about them, so maybe they’ll finally be put to rest.
I consider the Stormin’ Mormon to be a vet starting next year. He had an outstanding rookie campaign, and now he’s shown that he’s no fluke.
Cabrera, sure he’s a veteran, but he kind of sucks. I only wrote “veteran free agent” because I think the team doesn’t have another guy who is ready to step into the rotation next year, and a free agent signing that isn’t outrageous (and with all those options, I think you can grab someone for not outrageous money) would be a good idea – sort of the thinking behind signing Trachsel earlier in the year (remember him?).
I wouldn’t be thrilled with Olson-Guts-Cabs-Penn-Liz. If that’s the opening day rotation, and you know it can only go downhill from opening day, that could be a long year (based solely on Penn-Liz). On the other hand, I said the same thing about Guts-Cabs-Loewen-Trachsel-Burres…although this year we had three decent options available (Penn, Olson, Albers) to fill in as needed.
Anyway, my point is I think a short term free agent deal would be a good idea, just to add stability if nothing else. As for Mussina, don’t ever get me wrong. The past eight years I’ve been rooting against the Yankees almost solely because I don’t want him to see him succeed as a Yankee. I really despise that he plays for the Yankees, but I would absolutely welcome him back as an Oriole if he returned for a farewell tour. I guess that’s just me. At any rate, this isn’t a Mussina discussion, but he will be a free agent next year, and the odds of the Yankees resigning him is low. So he is an option if he doesn’t retire.
Well the main difference between this year and last year is the absence of talent at AAA… it forced our hand on Trachsel. Now that we have a contingency plan in the event that Liz, Penn, Olson and Burres can’t hack it… we have four or five options in Norfolk to replace them with. I mean If our starting rotation at the beginning of 2008 was Guthrie/Cabrera/Loewen/Burres/Trachsel… and three of them are gone now… don’t be surprised if by May three of the original five aren’t there. I think we have many more options that don’t require us to sign any free agents. There’s too much talent to evaluate to hire someone who doesn’t figure into any long term plans.
I think you meant the difference between next year and this year?
Let’s say, for example, that our opening day rotation is Guthrie-Cabrera-Olson-Penn-Liz in that order. Our contingency plan(s) would probably be: Patton, Burres, Waters, Albers, Berken, Hernandez, Bergesen, Leicester, Bukvich, junk junk junk.
I can dissect all of these guys for a reason why adding one proven guy to the rotation wouldn’t be a bad idea, outside of Liz obviously needing more work (and perhaps being moved to the bullpen shortly), so I will, and then you can tell me why I’m wrong. Fun!
Patton/Albers: same issue, shoulder surgery. How many pitchers ever come back from torn labrums, and how manyof those guys are any good afterwards? I can think of one guy: Chris Carpenter. So counting on these guys is probably not a great idea yet if at all.
Burres: We’ve seen what Brian Burres can do, and what he can’t do, and he’s a bullpen guy/swingman. There’s no way he should ever be a regular in a major league rotation. However, once he gets through his current control issues, I think he’ll be a pretty good middle reliever as long as he doesn’t get hurt.
Waters: Obviously, we don’t have a clue about him either way yet. But he wasn’t really that good in the minors. You never know though.
Berken, Hernandez, Bergesen: Berken’s thrown just over 300 innings, Bergesen and Hernandez around 450. None of them even knows what AAA is. All three are in their only years in AA ball so far. So while I can see a late season callup, like what Waters just got, I want these guys to get their feet a little more wet.
So, our backup plan is: Burres, Waters, Leicester, Hernandez, Bergesen, Berken. If we can just push everyone back one place it makes our available depth so much better, especially considering Cabrera and Guthrie haven’t shown much signs of being injury prone, and can both throw a ton of innings no sweat. Add in another guy like that and while it isn’t a competition rotation, it is more stable. I would kill for stable right now.
What’s more likely? A stable or competition rotation?
That’s up to MacPhail. I’d personally rather see competition rotation.
I think Penn and Liz will make the rotation, Burres will be the swing guy based on his age. 2009 will be a long season either way. I don’t see how we’re going to get a FA pitcher that everyone approves of without offering him a long term contract.
Chad Bradford to Rays for PTBNL
Yeah…I just saw that. What a weird move:
Here’s a link:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-bradford0807,0,6178870.story
That’s a curious move. I thought we’d be able to get something better than a PTBNL for Chadford. Goodbye mustache, I’ll miss you.
Obviously, if you can’t get any of the guys on my list without giving them a 3 or 4 year deal, you don’t do it (With some exceptions; I would totally be behind a 3 year deal for Derek Lowe, for example). So what I said depends on that. But my thinking is not “what would the Orioles do if I were in charge” and more “What do I think the Orioles will do”. They showed that they didn’t want their young pitchers flying without a net this year by signing Trachsel. Next year I assume they’ll be thinking the same thing and go out and get another vet to fill out the staff.
Further, competitive rotations are often stable to some degree. It’s a prerequisite. The 1998 Yankees, one of the frustratingly greatest teams in the past 50 years, were anchored by 200+ IP from Cone, Wells, and Pettite each. The ’97 Orioles, who really just dominated baseball until the ALCS, were similarly anchored by Mike Mussina, Scott Erickson, and Jimmy Key. Hand in hand.
Also, for those that want AJ Burnett… picking him up out of free agency loses us a second round pick… similarly with any Type A free agent. I’m not sure a stable rotation is worth a pick.
I see what you’re getting at, Greg, but AJ Burnett is absolutely worth it. Picks in the MLB draft just aren’t that valuable on account of (a) how hard it is to predict performance after the top, say, 10-15 guys, and (b) how many of them you get (like 40 or so).
I say give Burnett his 4 years and his $10 mil per, because with him and Guthrie 1-2 we’re in much better shape.
A point on Bradford. Oftentimes in August a player to be named later is a player that can’t pass through waivers. So we might be getting someone useful, but can’t actually receive him until after the season. In that case, it would be someone on the Rays 40 man squad. If that’s the case, I’d be willing to guess it’s one of Barlett, Zobrist, Aybar, or Niemann. Actually none of those seem quite right for this scenario. Any other guesses?
The free agent compensation is something I totally forgot about for some stupid reason. Starting pitchers are valued via: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts from the previous 2 seasons (and it’s among all starting pitchers, not just free agents). The top 30% are type A and cost us a second rounder, and nobody else costs us anything. So I’d cross Burnett, Dempster, Lowe, maybe Moyer, and maybe Byrd off the list. Well, that just got a lot hairier than I would have liked.
But I still think it happens, and honestly, it probably should happen.
Sounds like, from MacPhail’s comments via Schmuck, that this was a salary dump. Curious that Andy says he could “use the dough” when we’re talking about 5.5 million dollars in total. That’s not really that much. Sounds like we’ll be looking to extend Roberts or sign up Markakis or go after someone on the market this year for sure.
Exciting.
Rocky Cherry called up today to take the place of Chad Bradford. Would have expected Penn, but now I guess we’re stuck with yet another start from Dennis Sarfate.
I assumed either Cherry or Mickolio was coming up, and then getting sent down when Penn comes up. Although, I think we’ll see what Sarfate can do when he’s not pitching against the best offenses in the league (his next start is vs. Cleveland, right?). I’m glad its Rocky Cherry: his name is outstanding, and Kam needs more time at AAA.
So, cool. Hopefully Rocky is better than he was last year. He is the gift of Trachsel, after all.