Teixeira’s List is Narrowing
As noted by Tomás in the last thread, the Angels have reportedly dropped out of the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes. This appears to be a real dropout, as opposed to the “will they or won’t they” dropout the Red Sox handed us last week. Emphasis on appears.
Assuming it’s true, the list is now down to two teams who haven’t claimed to be out: Orioles and Nationals. The Yankees continue to lurk, but their role seems to be more about the needs of a hopeful media than anything else. The aforementioned Sox may or may not be out, but at the very least it’s clear they won’t be the team that outbids all others in order to make Scott Boras that much richer.
I become less certain each day that a huge bid for Teixeira is the best move. I would love to see him here, obviously, but the price is outlandish. There’s one point I come back to that makes me think it might be OK: while the price is ridiculous in 2009, it might look like a deal in, say, 2013. That assumes that (a) we’re in a position to contend in 2-3 years, and (b) MLB doesn’t experience widespread salary deflation.
Some folks assumed the Alex Rodriguez contract with the Rangers was a harbinger of continued escalation. In fact it ended up being the high-water mark from which everyone else subsequently retreated. That’s worth thinking about.
Risk/reward…risk/reward…risk/reward…
In other news, mercurial big man Daniel Cabrera has signed with the Nationals. I wish him well.
And (as the Sun notes in that Cabrera link), one of baseball’s all-time great characters has died. Dock Ellis will be missed. I once had a conversation with a director friend of mine about developing a screenplay based on Ellis’ life. It never materialized, but here’s hoping someone does it. There’s enough material there for something amazing.
Finally, the O’s are apparently in the running for both Braden Looper and Tim Redding. I’d have no problem with either one (or both), but I still think that making a play for Ben Sheets makes sense. Injury history be damned.
Still believe we’re going to land Tex; just a strong gut feeling, but I certainly wish this would be concluded.
Believe his signing is worth it, both from a cost/benefit perspective from the business sense, and also simply from the psyche perspective – this would be a huge commitment to winning on the part of the Os.
Any of the aforementioned hurlers seem pretty worthwhile at the moment, and would help in this upcoming transition year.
Cabrera is worth the gamble the Nats are taking, but despite his incredible arm, he lacks the athletic ability, e.g., muscle memory, to replicate a successful delivery on a consistent basis. StClair is an outstanding pitching coach, but. . .Cabrera has been tutored, unsuccessfully, by some of the best in the game.
I think he’ll sign somewhere either today or tomorrow. Unfortunately, I’m starting to think this delay is really just Boras trying to get the best possible deal out of the Sox any way he can. He’s using the Nats bid as leverage at the moment, coupled with his claim that Tex still has a sentimental temptation to sign with his “home” team. Unless the Sox totally draw the line, I still have a horrible feeling he ends up there. But I know nothing, of course.
Getting tired of the OH “we have to get Tex or this franchise is a failure/we’re never going to win ever” attitude. It really grinds my gears. There is plenty to be hopeful for in the coming years with or without Tex.
Greg, I agree.
I think you have to do better than Tim Redding. He was released by the Nats, for gods sake. Think about a pitcher like that in the AL East. Not pretty. He can eat innings, but so could D-Cab. I also feel roughly the same way about Looper, but with what else is available, I guess he’s a good option, but just completely underwhelming. I’m with you Neal – I really don’t understand the O’s seeming lack of interest in Sheets. At least make him an offer. I really think he could turn out to be a steal.
You aren’t going to find out who the Orioles are serious about pitching-wise until the Tex dabacle has concluded. Fortunately, no one else will be moving in the FA market until Tex is gone either. I would expect that once Tex goes, Dunn, Sheets and Garland go quickly in succession.
Of the free agent pitchers, I personally want to see Looper and Uehara the most. Really I don’t feel that comfortable with any of them, but we’re talking about upgrading over Brian Burres and Brad Hennessy. Realistically, if we got Redding and Garland (for some modest price) I’d be okay with it, even though I don’t think that those guys’ upside is particularly strong.
But we’re talking, most likely, about the difference between right now (~67 wins), what we could have in my ideal world of Tex-Uehara-Looper (probably ~78 wins) and the fallback position of Millar-Redding-Whoever (most likely about 73 or so wins).
My point being, we’re going to need Liz and Olson to really step up this year to sniff .500 in any case, and I just don’t see it happening. We’ve got to wait and see who develops out of Bergesen, Hernandez (who I really wasn’t that impressed with when I saw him back in July), Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz (who I was especially impressed with from what I caught of the AFL).
Sci – the O’s can’t make Sheets an offer.
To do so would actually constitute an effort on their part to SPEND money.
All they’ve been doing for the last 18 months is cutting payroll and saving money, not spending it.
Why go out and spend money on pitchers who can get people out when we have guys in Delmarva and Frederick who might be able to get people out in 2011 or 2012?
Of course, we have those two gems from the Japanese league. They will be cheap, or cheaper, I guess, which fits right in with our motto: “Why spend on quality when we don’t have to?”
the O’s will move on the pitching front once they’ve signed Tex, and not before. Again, the Tex domino falling will start a frenzy of other activity that has remained relatively dormant.
Looper would be an excellent addition. Don’t underestimate Redding. I used to live in DC, was a Nats season ticket holder in ’05/’06 before moving to Baltimore, so I still follow the Nats with some interest, and watched Redding pitch several times last season.
He’s pretty talented, and given some offensive and defensive support, he could be an adequate 4th or 5th starter on the Os.
Yeah, Looper would be a perfect signing here.
He’s 34, which is one year beneath McPhail’s age requirement.
Looper at 34? Sure. Derek Lowe at 35? No.
Looper is perfect. Career ERA (as a starter) a bit above the league average. WHIP of 1.3 per-inning. Gives up 20-something HR’s a year.
And he’s cheap at about $6 mil per.
Fits. Like a glove.
As for Redding…he’s better than Daniel Cabrera. Well, maybe not.
WHIP of 1.4 last year but he hit 27 HR’s – no, wait, he gave up 27 HR’s. 4.95 ERA…in the National League.
I’ll pass on him too.
But they probably won’t.
They’re both a perfect – and typical – O’s off-season investment.
Another gamble that won’t pay off.
DF –
Can’t disagree with your analysis of the past 18 months.
However:
The Past is a nasty place to reside for anyone, but especially for an O’s fan.
Please join us on the Path to the Future. There is plenty of room and we would love to have you!
***
I’m torn. Andy is at the table. He’s holding a good stack of chips, but from the camera angles, ESPN is making them appear smaller.
Part of me wants to go All-In, to “buy the pot” if you will.
As the game wears on and the other players tire of the Dealer’s charades, this “All-In” move seems more and more to be a fool proof plan.
But then the Other part of me reminds the poker-analogy-loving part that Texiera can’t pitch.
We need Pitching more than we need Texiera. Right?
-Joe
Yeah, Joe, I’ve been on that Path to the Future since about 1998.
You guys can stay on that path and as the Talking Heads once sang, “we’re on the road to nowhere…”
When the team starts spending the money they have in their pockets, I’ll be back.
They don’t even have to win for me to come back. They just have to act like they want to win.
Nothing – zero, nada, zilch – shows me they’re trying to win.
All that MASN money is just sitting around collecting dust while the best players sign with other teams.
I want a refund.
I haven’t watched much MASN anyway since July, 2006.
Well, it’s not really a “gamble”. It’s a stopgap. They don’t want Lowe because of the combination of his age, his extreme contracts desires (plus the extra it would take to bring him to Baltimore over New York or Boston) in terms of money, and the idea that we would probably need to sign him until he was 38…do you think, forgetting who the pitcher is (unless it’s Sandy Koufax) that this Orioles team needs to get bogged down with a big contract for a 37 year old in a couple years?
If we brought in Lowe (who’s numbers are pretty good….in the NL Worst, I mean West) and a guy like Looper or Redding or Uehara, we’d probably still be looking at 80 wins tops this year and then you have to deal with his decline phase that should be taking effect in 5…4..3..2..1..
Of course, if the Orioles had expressed interest in him, I’d probably be taking the opposite side in this, about how great he is and how he would put us back above .500 and what not. At least I can admit my failings to not be a homer, right?
Also, Drew, I tried to tell you, the payroll isn’t being slashed. Last year, yes – but it makes absolutely zero sense for a team that’s trying to hit the reset button to add payroll (Can we agree on that?). This year the payroll’s going back up to the 75-100 million dollar range (could be higher depending on Tex, pitching, Nick, and Brian)…I mean you can look at the numbers right now and say it’s at 55 million, but then you’re forgetting that we don’t have a catcher and that some guys are going to be getting big raises through arbitration, and we’re still working on signing some guys.
But oh well. Yes, the typical Orioles are slashing payroll like there’s no tomorrow. I have no idea how they intend to win without spending any money. At this rate, by 2010 the total payroll will probably be around 10 million dollars, and we’ll be finishing in the 40 win area. What a damn shame that’s going to be. I think I’ll turn into a Blast fan.
“Who took the money…who took the money awaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay – I’ve got a girlfriend, she’s better than that. Nothing is better than this.”
God I love The Talking Heads. But I love the Electric Six a little more, for all the talk about the past and the future and the plan:
“Because the Future is in the Future…and the Past is a Big Red Wall.”
We need to not keep harping on the many, many failures of the past decade and not keep deluding ourselves with some Eden that’s just magically going to appear in 2010 or 2011 or whenever…that ETA always seems to get pushed back every couple years anyway…
We need to say right now, we have a 67 win team, what can we do right now to improve this year, keeping in mind that there are years after 2009 to worry about. I think most of us can agree signing Teixeira helps us a lot, and that finding some pitching would help some more.
But there ain’t a lot of good pitching out there, keeping mind that second rule: we have to remember that whatever long term deal we sign in 2008 is still going to be there in 2010, and such a bad club can’t really afford another albatross contract for an old player.
We’ll let the results of the off-season speak for itself.
No matter what happens, if they don’t spend money on quality players, I’m going to beat them up and others will take their side and say, “we’re rebuilding for 2012″.
I think they should wait until 2112 to get good. Then, they could bring the members of RUSH out to the mound and commemorate their great album, 2112, by having Geddy Lee sing “Lakeside Park”.
That’s exactly my thoughts: let’s grade this offseason on February 1st, when it’s over with. That way we won’t be talking about non-specifics: we’ll know the payroll, the roster, and what mistakes were probably made, and where the team is probably going to finish. Until then, there’s not much to talk about until Tex signs…
OH MY GOD: ORIOLES SIGN TEIXEIRA!!!! BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!
THANK YOU GOD THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!!
…nah, I’m just messing you.
There is ALWAYS plenty to talk about, AooR.
Well, yes, I know that of course. I merely meant in terms of “Is this a successful winter or not”, how can we say right now? But sure, there’s lots to talk about: Teixeira negotiations coming to a wrap(?), what pitchers should the Orioles be targeting, the Ravens fucking up the Cowboys(!), the Ravens going into the playoffs, hopefully (and honestly, I’m only scared of one team in the playoffs: the Colts…if we get past them somehow, I think the Ravens can go all the way, I really do), and where do the ducks in Central Park go during the winter? Does a big truck come around and load them all up and take them away or what?
railing about the O’s past mismanagement is now fruitless, especially since MacPhail has an excellent track record, and since his moves here have been solid.
again, I am convinced he’s going to win the Tex derby, and have chips to play to sign some decent pitching to carry us until the homegrown hurlers can bring some real excellence to the mound.
Good job Dan. You’ve pissed off Roch. WTG.
MacPhail has an “excellent track record” (here)…
Yeah, I guess if last place, an all-time low attendance record and not spending the fan’s money constitutes “excellent track record”, than you’re spot on with that one.
Waiting around to judge the off-season until February will only delay the inevitable frustration that comes with the team refusing to spend money on quality players.
But we can wait until February 1 and snicker at that point.
“Yeah, I guess if last place, an all-time low attendance record and not spending the fan’s money constitutes “excellent track record”, than you’re spot on with that one.”
Completely unfair. The team on the field since MacPhail’s hiring is largely the combined masterpiece of Flanagan and Duquette. After 2009, all of the contracts that they were responsible for will be gone (all $47M of em) and then you can begin to judge MacPhail for all of the problems associated with the ballclub’s makeup. And he didn’t even draft most of the people he has to work with in the minors either.
Yeah, you can’t berate Andy MacPhail for the product he was given, nor for the previous 10 years of losing. And I’d struggle to reasonalbly argue that ANY one man could turn this ship around in 1 year. And the losing bred the attendance. As for the money…meh, I’ve been over this argument a billion times now and it means nothing to me, either way.
And lastly, waiting around for February 1st doesn’t delay anything. If anything, it cancels out the possibility of premature emasculation. It’d be like saying on October 30th the Orioles were a failure because they hadn’t traded Ramon Hernandez and I couldn’t fathom a way they could possibly trade Ramon Hernandez (and I couldn’t…so this is a true story). But then they did. Luckily for me, I didn’t put their feet in the fire for that “lack of action” too soon, or now I’d look mighty foolish. Savvy?
I can berate Andy for not spending any money. What he inherited was a team that wasn’t very good and what he’s produced thus far is a team that’s not very good.
That’s not a low blow, just a fact.
He arrived here in June of 2007. He’s signed one guy so far (Izturis) to a bonafide decent-money contract. The rest of the time, he’s slashed payroll.
He’s failed to re-sign Roberts (which costs money) and oversaw the kick-in-the-nuts-55k-raise to Markakis and has not been able to extend him (which also costs money).
If the team spends $100-$125 million on player salaries in ’09, I’ll gladly step aside and say, “now he’s doing his job…”
They have the money but they’re not spending it.
That’s right out of the Charlatan101 textbook.
“He arrived here in June of 2007. He’s signed one guy so far (Izturis) to a bonafide decent-money contract. The rest of the time, he’s slashed payroll.”
Drew, in addition to slashing payroll, he also has restocked the farm system with talent. Way to be shortsighted there.
Man, I drop one pissy comment in Roch’s blog and I get slammed by the masses! Seriously though, I love Roch. He does great work. I voted “yea” for him on TLC. I go to his site multiple times per day. But the dan the man that posts over at Roch is an asshole. He’s not the real dan the man. Honestly, I give Roch a lot of shit over there in the comments, but only this offseason because he’s been a sad sack all offseason. I never said he had to be cheerleader, I just think he can do better. Have a better tone. Write better. He has an opportunity to drive the Orioles fanbase, but he doesn’t, really. He was much better over at the Sun, for whatever reason… more opinionated, more passionate. I haven’t enjoyed reading his less-than-news blogs recently, and I’ve told him so in the comments, half because I want him to do better, and half because it’s funny. And this Tex thing has made me certifiably insane. The end.
Didn’t know that “restocking the farm system” cost you any more money this year than last, but I’ll let you go on with that theory if it makes you feel better. You employ scouts, they go look at players, you sign a few and hope they work out. It costs money, sure. But it’s part of doing business. MacPhail’s not the ONLY guy in the league “restocking the farm system.”
That said, he’s done a nice with the farm system. Unfortunately, Ethan will be in high school by the time we see most of the recent picks contribute.
You guys seem to always be willing to defend MacPhail for not spending any money when it’s the most obvious of all of his shortcomings.
And the team, of course, has contributed to that by not following through on their promise to spend money (“to compete with Boston and New York”) generated via MASN.
I’m sure once Teixeira isn’t signed, everyone will clamor “that was just way too much money for a player.”
But if we get him, it will be, “MacPhail really knows what he’s doing.”
All of those pitchers are still out there waiting to get paid.
Tex is there waiting to get paid.
Roberts would like to get paid.
So would Markakis.
Well….when are they going to start spending money?
Drew. Please stop.
You want the Orioles to be like the Yankees. The Orioles want to be like the Rays.
Knowing that the Rays have had considerable success with limited payroll gives all the reason in the world why they shouldn’t have to spend a lot of money to get the same results as infinite payroll.
–”He arrived here in June of 2007. He’s signed one guy so far (Izturis) to a bonafide decent-money contract. The rest of the time, he’s slashed payroll.”
Correct. I agree with his choice to do so.
—He’s failed to re-sign Roberts (which costs money) and oversaw the kick-in-the-nuts-55k-raise to Markakis and has not been able to extend him (which also costs money).
He hasn’t failed to resign anyone. They just haven’t been resigned. Until one or both hits free agency, MacPhail hasn’t failed.
–If the team spends $100-$125 million on player salaries in ‘09, I’ll gladly step aside and say, “now he’s doing his job…”
Such a sad sad way to look at things. Spending money is not the equivalent of forward progress in the MLB.
Well, that’s interesting.
I guess the Yankees haven’t been very successful over the last, what, 15 years or so?
And the Red Sox, they haven’t really done much in this decade either.
The Rays won the division once. Hats off to them. They have a decent nucleus, no doubt. But they’ll have to spend money on those players in 2-3 years or they’ll all skate out on them and they’ll be battling the Birds for the basement again. You either spend money or lose. Eventually, it catches up to you.
The O’s are in no way, shape or form even remotely close to the Rays, except for the fact that both teams draw 12,000 fans for any home game not involving the Yankees or Red Sox.
The comparisons stop there.
And you’re basically arguing with the wrong guy on this.
The Orioles were the ones who said, “we need to start our own TV network in order generate more revenue and spend that money on players to compete with New York and Boston.”
You should be arguing with them. That’s their stated philosophy.
I’m just asking them to follow through and spend that $2.65 a month they get from me, you and 6 million other people.
So, asking the team to spend the money they’ve raised from the fans is a “sad way to look at things”…OK, then.
The empty seats in the stadium tell me fewer and fewer people are on board with “doing it like the Rays”.
Well, Drew, how does one explain raising payroll while at the same time rebuilding? The two don’t go hand in hand. Once the rebuilding process is done (which is to say, we build a base of major league players that have come up through the farm system via international scouting efforts as well as the domestic draft…and you retain the strong farm system in addition to that core of major leaguers) then it makes sense to start spending that money. But if you had your way, the Orioles would be spending 80 million dollars on guys like Derek Lowe and Jason Giambi.
And then what do you have? You have an expensive, old, still ineffective roster that you can’t really adjust the way you’d like to (it’d be like having 10 Melvin Moras) where you just have to ride out those contracts that you already regret before you can start to think about signing good, young free agents. So, please, because I don’t understand your thinking beyond “They took my money and aren’t spending it!!!”, explain to me how the Orioles are suppose to rebuild AND increase payroll at the same time.
And I at no point went for a low blow on you there, just facts.
Drew, you will complain if the O’s sign Tex and then don’t sign Sheets.
You’ll complain that that the O’s should have signed CC Sabbathia if they sign Tex and Sheets.
You’ll complain that they should have signed CC, Tex, AJ, and Sheets instead of just Tex and Sheets.
You’ll complain that the O’s extended Markakis and Roberts, signed Tex and Sheets, but fired some of their game day staff.
I mean… come on. When does it stop, man? Give Andy time. He’s trimming payroll to get younger and sign talent and make smarter moves. It’s making dumb, expensive moves that got us here in the first place. There’s a new focus on the farm system and depth. And scouting. And doing it right.
Will you Ever Stop, Drew?
Stop what? Wanting the team to get better? I probably won’t ever do that.
If you mean “stop watching their every move”, I’ll probably do less of that once they start being competitive again and putting people back in the seats. And, generally speaking, the most competitive teams in baseball are the ones who spend money on THEIR players and others in the free-agent market who can make their team better both immediately and in the future.
And making dumb, expensive moves is NOT how they got here in the first place. Not hardly. Making DUMB moves like signing n’er do wells such as Omar Daal and Steve Kline and Deivi Cruz were reasons why they lost. None of those cats were expensive – they were just bad baseball players that we signed because we didn’t want the expensive ones.
When the team actually spent money on EXPENSIVE players in the mid 1990′s (when their payroll was $95 million – 13 years ago), the team actually won and made the playoffs.
The franchise got where they are today because they hired cheap front office people, cheap players, cheap managers and cheap everything else. They tried to outsmart everyone else in baseball by winning on a five-and-dime store budget and it didn’t work.
So when you ask “will it ever stop?”, I don’t know if you mean the losing, the bad public relations and marketing or the sagging attendance.
In my case, I want all of those things to stop – and improve.
When they do, I’ll have less to talk about, that’s for sure.
Counter-arguements:
Albert Belle
Sidney Ponson
Javy Lopez
Ramon Hernandez
Melvin Mora
Jay Gibbons
Sammy Sosa
Danys Baez
Jaret Wright
Kris Benson
All expensive, dumb moves which have in various ways crippled the team’s flexibility for poor reasons (meaning, that they made those deals when the reward was relatively low for such a high risk). But at least they spent money!!
Albert Belle got hurt. Have you looked at his numbers while he was here? His first year he played in every game but one, hit 37 HR’s, had 123 RBI’s and hit .297 with 36 doubles. His next season he only missed 21 games and his numbers were only down slightly across the board because he battled injury. He was an expensive signing who produced until he got hurt. He wasn’t a bad investment like, say, Barry Zito.
Other than Belle, all the other guys you listed were basically middle of the road players or guys who parlayed one great year (Lopez, 5th in MVP voting) into a big contract. Albert Belle and Miguel Tejada are the only players the club has signed to a double digit per-year salary in this decade. They were marquee players. One got hurt and the other gave up when the franchise stopped trying to be competitive and he said “f*ck it”.
And by the way, you should be ashamed of yourself for putting Melvin Mora on that list. He’s been a steal for them based on what they’re paying and what’s he done over the last eight seasons. And he’s hardly expensive. The guy has made a total of $20 million over the last FOUR seasons – they’re trying to give Tex $20 million for ONE year. THAT is expensive.
The guys you SHOULD list are the players the O’s COULD have had but failed to reel them in because, predictably, they didn’t want to fork over the money or give them a long enough deal. In most cases, the guys I list weren’t even pursued by the O’s because they just didn’t want to spend that type of cash.
Guerrero, Lee, Ordonez, Beltran, Oswalt, Lowe, Pudge — is that enough for now? Those guys all were marquee players who commanded big money and went to teams willing to pay it and all have been very good if not perennial All-Stars. Ironically, all of those guys have been to the playoffs at some point in the last three seasons.
You listed a bunch of scrubs – most of whom were overpaid by the Orioles but certainly not EXPENSIVE a la Belle ($15 mil) and Tejada ($12 mil).
But you’re right – the O’s have spent money on BAD players.
They should be spending money on GOOD players.
Like the Yankees and Red Sox have done. And they’ve both spent money on some bad players too…but they don’t run around scared of the own shadow because they made a bad deal on Pavano or Edgar Renteria, for example. They just keep spending money and, somehow (probably by accident), they keep being competitive and winning.
BTW, rumor floating around tonight is that the Nationals have added a year and upped their offer to $184 million for Tex.
Drew, you are freaking insufferable and impossible to have a reasonable discussion with because of your ability to put words into people’s mouths and turn their questions back around on them. Are you aware of that? I think you are.
I’m just saying that at a certain point, if the O’s have signed all the good players they can, that you need to stop bashing the organization. I mean, if you were a media guy in Boston, there’s no way you WOULDN’T find something wrong with that almost perfect organization. It’s just…. at some point, you have to want them to get better in a way that’s not so negative. Without thinking you know how to run a baseball organization. Because you don’t. You’re a talk show host on the radio. You’re a fan. Just like us!
And there’s one aspect of baseball you will NEVER grasp, for some reason, and it’s this: IT TAKES TWO TO MAKE A DEAL.
And there’s no way PGA let’s the Nats win. Not gonna happen.
Dan, I think I agree with everything you wrote.
Except the part about PGA – “no way he lets the Nats win…”
He doesn’t care about that. He’ll make money on the back end from a MASN/Nats TV deal with increased revenue, advertising, etc.
Other than that, I think you’re spot on with everything you wrote.
My question is, do you think that’s a good way to live your life, or a good lesson to pass on to others: be so stubborn that you make people angry because they can’t have a friendly discussion with you.
But I do find it interesting that you agree with everything else. Unless it was an oversight on your part, I almost have you on the record saying that you agree that you need to stop criticizing the organization in a negative way if they do the right things. I’d love to see that day, because I do like how you talk football and everything non-Orioles.
@DtM: did you get your email?
For everyone else, please don’t shy away from helping test out the new site. I’d like as much feedback as possible before it goes live.
On Teixeira:
I did a breakdown awhile back (can’t find the link at the moment) that pretty much disproved the notion that spending=winning. It just doesn’t work that way. I challenge anyone to show me how spending more money leads to more wins.
It can’t be done. So while I think it’s true that the O’s need to be proactive in acquiring talent, the idea that it has to be high-priced is pretty silly. It makes for a fun debate, I suppose, but that’s about it.
The one place where I absolutely agree with Drew is the idea that we must — must — spend the money to lock up our homegrown talent. It will be a willingness to do that, above all else, that determines the long-term health of the team.
Dan, I’m only “stubborn” to you and incapable of carrying on a friendly conversation (with you) because we don’t agree.
If you and I sat around and talked about how great Tiger Woods is, for example, we’d have a friendly conversation.
If you and I sat around and talked about how great Alex Ovechkin is, we’d have a friendly conversation.
But when we talk baseball, it’s hard for the conversation to be friendly…if we’re talking about the O’s, that is.
And I look at you like your equally stubborn on the subject of the O’s and their (supposed) attempts to improve. I just don’t care enough to start getting all Jean-Paul-Sartre on you about “how you live your life” and “what you pass on to others” and all that other garbage.
“Freedom is what you do with what’s been done to you.”
So, when they someday get better and people start going to the games again and they follow through on their promises to the fans, then I’ll have no reason to – as you deem it – “be negative” anymore.
Still, Drew, what is your ideal plan for rebuilding? Is it floating out as many 100 million dollar contracts as possible while relying on the draft to slowly but surely restock the farm system? How do you rebuild without slashing payroll?
My list, by the way, is people who are overpaid for their contracts based on the service they provided. Some of these guys were rewarded with huge deals for little to no reason like Jay Gibbons and Danys Baez – they both stunk and still got a lot of money. Some of them are just overpaid for the production they give. Melvin Mora is a fine baseball player, but there’s no way he’s earning his paycheck with his below average hitting at a premium offensive position.
And as for Albert Belle. The reason his contract was a bust was because we signed an aging guy too much money when he was an injury risk. If you do that, you get burned. We got burned. You don’t make aging, injured players the highest paid players in baseball…it’s dumb. You get that one or two good seasons and then everything explodes. This is what I’ve been saying. If you go for the quick fix and sign the expensive, old players (like Derek Lowe), you end up stuck with a bad contract after a couple of years that you regret. A lot. Like Albert Belle.
How have you watched the Orioles the past 10 years and still think the quick fix is the way to fix things?
Andrew, I hate to do this to you but your lack of research is so glaring that I must do it.
Albert Belle was 33 in his first season with the O’s. He wasn’t “aging”.
In the four years prior to signing with the O’s, how many games do you think he missed due to injury? Four seasons…150? 100? 75?
Try 25.
In four years prior to joining the team – in his prime – he missed a total of 25 games.
You consider that an injury risk?
I know you’re trying to take the guy they spent the most amount of money on and prove a point to defeat my contention that they’re charlatans for not spending any money, but your Belle argument is baseless.
Now, if you would have mentiond Jaret Wright, I would have agreed with you.
Ha! I knew it – I absolutely knew you’d fire back with that. I was hoping you’d glaze over it quickly and let it be. But yes, I’m wrong. Albert Belle was not an injury risk. I tried to put a quick one on you, but you didn’t take the bait.
But he was aging. We signed a 33 year old to a long, long contract and it’s not that surprising that he didn’t make the whole way through it. If he were a pitcher going on 36, it’d have been stupider.
And I did mention Jaret Wright. What the fuck was that?
Oh, and anyway, Albert Belle exactly proves the overall point I’m trying to make. The Orioles overspent lots of money to bring in a big bat, thinking that to do so would provide the quick fix to jumpstart the franchise again. Belle was, after all, one of the great hitters of the previous couple of years. And how did we do with Belle those years? We finished in first place right? Or at least were in the wild card hunt for most of the season?
Of course not. Because you put all your cash into one or two expensive players and then you’ve got nothing left and you still stink because the other 20 guys on the roster stink.
Just pulling Albert Belle’s name out and saying, “why spend on players?” when Belle didn’t help them win is silly.
They didn’t win during his brief time here because they didn’t spend money on any other marquee players at that point.
Signing ONE GUY (like Teixeira) and only one guy doesn’t get you any immediate results.
If they would have signed Beltran, Lee, Oswalt, Lowe and made that deal for Beckett and Lowell (for Hayden freakin’ Penn…remember?) do you not think they’d be winning right now?
They would be sporting a $150 million salary structure right now, granted, but they’d be winning.
And, when discussing the team’s inability/refusal to spend money in the period 2000-2006, keep in mind they had NO MASN money to spend on players.
Remember, they have a hundred million dollars to spend right now because of MASN.
They never had that before.
But they DID have 40,000 people in the seats paying money to watch the team play.
They don’t have that anymore, of course.
Now it’s you who’s got your facts wrong. The deal was for A.J. Burnett, who hasn’t exactly been Josh Beckett. And Mike Lowell was dreadful in Florida for whatever reason. And Hayden Penn was then our number one pitching prospect. At the time, it wasn’t exactly a slam-dunk decision. But yeah, we messed it up I guess is your point.
So your point is that we should be able to sign 4 marquee players at any point (you cite Beltran, Lowe, Oswalt, and Lee) and therefore viola! competition! That’s all it takes to compete, I guess is your thesis. Buy as many big name producers as possible. We’ll call this the Yankee Way, because by and large that’s what they do. They develop some guys every couple years like Wang or Jeter or Rivera, but then they keep the good ones around with really big contracts. Other than that, they go out and find the best, most expensive players and pick them up (like ARod, Sabathia, Burnett, Giambi, Mussina, and Damon). And you know what – it works.
I have been tinkering with this general concept in my head for a couple weeks now – I might cash in my blog entry with Neal to write about it in February as a ways of summarizing “The Plan Offseason 2″ – but in the world of the AL East, there are 3 models of competition that seem to be working out:
1) The Yankee Way. Spend your way out of trouble. They end up with some bad contracts (especially towards their ends…anybody think Pettite was worth 16 mil last year?), but the sheer quantity of superstars make up the production. It requires the team to basically set aside a big fraction of the total payroll to “Useless Junk”, i.e. Carl Pavano, every year…but again, they have enough money to keep spending their way right out of that trouble.
2) The Rays Approach. As my girlfriend puts it “You can spend money, or you can lose for 10 years. Either way, you make it to the World Series”. They developed a ton of draftees, and now their farm system is easily the best in the business. Their payroll is tiny, but they put enough money into international scouting and player development that they’ve built up a strong core of guys from the draft. Of course, it remains to be seen if they can replace these guys in 6 years when everyone springs for free agency after Tampa can’t afford to keep everyone. The Twins and A’s do this stuff probably the best. Johan Santana leaves for the cash, just replace him with Francisco Liriano, and so on.
3) The Red Sox System. In my opinion, the Red Sox are the class of the major leagues as far as front offices go. They make decisions based on future production instead of past accomplishment, they have one of the best farm systems anywhere despite drafting in the bottom 5 year in and year out, and they spend enough money to keep the guys they want to keep. They avoid long deals for old players (generally…Tim Wakefield is sort of an outlier in a lot of ways). But they’re fine with letting Johnny Damon go and be rich, because they’ve got Jacoby Ellsbury coming up right behind him.
My thesis is that we need to aim for number 3, not number 1 which is Drew’s stated mantra (unless I misinterpreted). And the only way to get there is to let the farm system heal itself first. That’s phase 1. Phase 1 isn’t over yet.
Sorry for the long post, but I’m still refining my thinking here and needed to stretch it out a little.
if the O’s had signed Sabathia & Burnett would you be happy right now? (i wouldn’t)
what would you have done this offseason?
what do you think they should do from this point onward?
You’re right, it WAS Burnett and Lowell for Penn.
Glad we passed on that one. Penn has been exceptional for us.
Joe – had they signed Sabathia and Burnett in this off-season, I would be happy. Anytime you can have the 1st, 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in baseball on your team (that’s the CC argument), you have to be pleased. Burnett is better x2 than any guy we have on the mound, for sure.
So, yes, I’d be happy if the O’s would have signed those two.
And, then, next off-season, they’d have to go out and sign more guys along with the continual grooming of whatever draft picks we cultivate in 2009.
You guys defending the team for NOT spending money is laughable.
Mainly because all of you really DO know baseball and you follow it closely enough to know that the teams with the highest payrolls – (Yanks, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, Angels, Mets) are ALWAYS in the playoff race come September and almost always some portion of those six make the post-season.
There are certainly teams that DON’T spend money who catch lightning in a bottle (Marlins have done it, Rays did it last year) and contend, but rarely are there teams who spend a lot of money who don’t contend.
That doesn’t mean they spend every year and make the World Series every year.
But here are the facts:
The Royals don’t spend money and they stink and have stunk for a while.
The Pirates ” ” ” ” ” ”
The Nationals ” ” ” ” ” ”
The Orioles ” ” ” ” ” ”
Those are the four worst franchises in baseball and they all have one thing in common.
They don’t spend money on quality players.
Andrew goes into his version of War and Peace but it’s not nearly that complicated.
It’s only complicated in an attempt to try and justify your point for the team not spending any money.
Here’s the other issue. The Orioles HAVE the money. They have the money to spend on players but they’re not doing it. Mainly because their revenues are down based on their staggering attendance drop-off. And that’s their fault.
And people think “the fans will come back when the team wins”.
And I say, “the team won’t win until the fans come back.”
And the only way the fans are going to come back is if the club starts acting professionally and honorably by appearing as if they really ARE trying to win.
Right now, everyone who has stopped going doesn’t think the team is trying to win.
Heh. Sorry about the long post. I’m a little long-winded about baseball, I guess.
3 things:
1) You can’t sit here today and say “We really shit our pants when we didn’t do this move 4 years ago”. You have to put yourself in the position you were in 4 years ago, not knowing what you know today. I mean, people thought the Glenn Davis trade was a good one at the time.
2) Before you used to say that “the team won’t win until the fans come back” which would happen when Baltimore came back on the road jerseys. Now it’s that they have to appear to be trying. What will it be next? I would guess that it will take actual winning will bring the fans back…but I will admit that picking up Mark Teixeira would certainly enthuse the fanbase to some degree…
3) I’m not defending the team for not spending money. Maybe it looks like it, but I hate being grouped in with the Pirates and the Royals. And the biggest thing we’ve had to celebrate in the past few years (besides the Bedard rip-off) was SPENDING MONEY on Matt Wieters – that’s right, Andy MacPhail spent the money. It’s not a lot of money, I suppose, compared to Carlos Beltran – but the relative value of Wieters vs. Beltran probably looks pretty good on our side, don’t you think?
The “Yankee” way, as defined earlier, is clearly a model with limited utility, i.e., only the very rich can implement.
Agree that the BoSox, in the last 10 years have done a splendid job of franchise building.
However, I believe a combination of the BoSox and Rays methodology is optimal. Building and then sustaining the team’s farm system is the #1 imperative in order to build and sustain a championship franchise.
The farm system can provide a continuing source of players for the big league team, and/or trade bait for the occasional free agent necessitated because of some postional shortfall, e.g., pitching the most likely culprit.
MacPhail’s got the O’s on the right track with the farm system, particularly by hiring and keeping excellent scouts. Their collective ability to judge talent is obviously critical to signing the right players to develop.
We won’t have to worry about dissecting this stuff much longer.
According to the Washington Times, Mark Teixeira is making his announcement today. ESPN reporting it’s either Washington or Boston. Sort of like the high school kid announcing his college…which hat will he put on?
Once that word comes down and he goes to either of those teams, we can then beatup the Orioles for not participating (really) in the Bring-Tex-Home campaign and once again ask out loud (but we surely won’t get an answer since they only take questions from people on their payroll) “when are you going to spend that MASN money you’ve been raising over the last 2+ years?”
The pisser of the decade is this:
The franchise has been dismantled and NO FREE AGENTS worth their salt have wanted to sign here in the last 3-4 years.
In this off-season, two of the top 7-8 players available in all of baseball wanted to come here and both had geographic connections and we STILL couldn’t get them.
It should be made into a movie.