The 40-Game Mark
I’ve mentioned this before but it bears repeating: when Mike Hargrove was here, I remember him saying that the 40-50 game mark is when you get your first chance to really understand what kind of team you have. I’m well aware that Hargrove’s teams routinely tanked late in the season, though, so we can agree now that this is an imperfect measurement.
Imperfect, but still worthwhile. 40 games represent (almost) 25% of the season. Meaning that we can stop saying “it’s still early.” It isn’t early — we’re entering the grind. The team has officially played enough games for us to step back and make some reasonable evaluations.
Let’s start with the obvious, which is the record. At 21-19 the O’s sit in third place, 2.5 games back of the division-leading Rays. Nobody figured on this in March, and if you claim you did you then you’d better come up with proof. For the rest of us, it’s fair to say that expectations have already been exceeded.
Once we dig into the details, though, it becomes something of a mixed bag. Let’s break it down.
The Good
The Orioles are 12-6 at home. They’re 10-5 in one-run games, after going 13-31 last year. George Sherrill has 15 saves already, when a lot of early prognosticators predicted he’d barely get 15 chances. Jim Johnson is pitching like an All Star out of the bullpen. Daniel Cabrera has been a revelation, Garrett Olson looks great, and Jeremy Guthrie has been solid. Nick Markakis — despite his deflated average — has reached base safely in 36 of 40 games. Freddie Bynum has taken preliminary steps toward solidifying the shortstop position.
And, most importantly, Dave Trembley has these guys playing hard and believing they can win no matter what.
The Bad
They’re just not hitting — the collective average is just .246, 25th in baseball. They’re only 8-7 against the AL East, with a lot more games to come against those teams. 10-5 in one-run games is good, but they’ve had way too many comeback wins. The baserunning has been a major issue. Adam Loewen is looking more and more like a disappointment. They lack depth — both here and in the minors — at a lot of positions.
I know I’m probably missing quite a bit, so please chime in with your own impressions in the comments.
All in all, though, I think the early verdict is in. The 2008 Baltimore Orioles are a better team than we thought they’d be. They’re exciting and inspiring, and they’re making the Lost Season a hell of a lot more interesting than some of seasons we weren’t willing to concede. They’re not going to contend for a division title, but they’re not going to contend for “worst team ever” status, either.
They’re also hanging on by a thread a lot of the time, and they will — bet on it — eventually face a stretch where the breaks don’t go their way.
I stand by my prediction of 70 wins for now. I’ll try to remember to do another “State of the Orioles” post like this at the 80 and 120 game marks (remind me if I don’t).
Where do you all stand?
I like what I see. There’s a lot of problems, and a lot of reasons why they’ll tail off – and I expect that and I’ve made my peace with the Lost Season. BUT they really have me believing, for better or worse, that the Losing Culture is going away. I really haven’t been this excited about the team this late since 2005, and I don’t think that there is a single guy on this team that’ll throw someone under the bus. All we’ve heard is how close knit they are and how much fun they’re making this year.
I like it.
i wish i could have gotten in on the previous posts, but being at game 1, and working all day today hindered that a little. But what a pair of games. I wish it was a 4 game set so we get stick it to em some more. Not really, dont want to get greedy. bring on the nats.
the 40 game point huh. Well, from what i can see, the pitching has carried us. Our offense is sputtering, but damn if it isnt clutch just as much. i.e. Luke last night, Payton today, and a few other come from behind wins. Come back wins areent a bad thing. it shows that we find a way to win, and thats what all the great teams do. If the pitching isnt solid then we dont have a chance for a comeback win.
I saw a stat today that said this year our Bullpen ERA is around the low 3′s i think. Last year, a whopping 5.07ERA. That has a lot to do with our place, and why we are 10-5 in one run games, and have won 5 more games to this point that last year. Factor that through out the season. 5 more through 40, thats 20 more this year, thats 89 wins. were past the early part now, and we are winning some quality games, and winning the games we should, like 3 of 4 from KC. Didnt chris ray lead the team with 13 saves last year? Sherrill has 15 already. Not Rivera, Papelbon, and many other great closers can say that.
About the offense now… We may not have the best average, but neither do alot of teams. Did you know carlos quentin of the white sox(who killed us by the way) leads the AL in HR’s with……wait for it…………9. Fucking 9. And were 40 games in. He’s on pace to lead the AL with 36 HR. Ok, A-Rod has been hurt, but even he hadnt been tearing it up. What about Papi, and Manny, and Sheffield, and Vlad, Giambi, Pena, Sexon(who does lead the leauge in pitchers hit by helmets), the list goes on. I said it before the season started, who knows what’ll happen with the game being played by clean ball players. If Cakes hits 2 HR in the game friday, he could be tied for the leauge lead. All im saying is if the playing field is leveled, then everone has a shot. Hence, the Rays, playing ungodly right now. and even the rangers, quietly have won 13 of their last 15.
The goal all along was to get through this season, get to .500 next year, and contend for the playoffs if not make it the year after. I think we’re a year ahead a schedule.
You cant take anything away from the O’s after their last two games. We beat their ace, made Manny choke in a moment I thought we were toast, made ortiz look like a cryababy, clutch hitting against great pitchers, solid D by crabcakes, and clawed back from 3 down each time to win. thats what good teams do. God I love this game.
Jim Johnsons new nickname, Houdini. Cause he’s an escape artist.
Neal, i think we have already hit that stretch where the breaks didnt go our way. we were at 2 for 11 going into the KC series, and were back to 2 games above .500. not to say another stretch isnt going to bite us, but the team is rolling again at 5 outof 6. potentially 8 out of 9 after the nats series. meltdown averted, which is a plus.
check out the vid of the boston fan getting pummeled, escorted out of camden on enchanting sunshine’s blog.
Did we already establish that JJ was “The Boat”?
Just a bit of analysis on the homerun totals through March and April:
370 games played last year total for March/April, 1.840 hr/game
417 games played this year total for March/April, 1.796 hr/game
april/march ’07: 681
april/march ’08: 749
Here are the links Wayward O mentioned:
the blog and the video
Awesome.
And oh yeah: JJ is definitely The Boat. That one’s gonna stick.
I’m NOT down with the recent soxfan hate
Why?
Because (IMO) the same people who are complaining about a stadium full of pinkhats also complain when the place is empty.
I want their money. Nothing else matters and that’s how we should taunt them when they run their mouths.
As for the Orioles -
I’d like to see a breakdown of Bedard/Tejada vs. Sherril/Jones/Scott etc.
AJ and Luke Scott are the only omissions from your breakdown (and the initial comments) that stuck out at me.
You can’t compare the intangibles of the Tejada/Bedard trade, such as the fact that they both had piss poor attitudes most of the time and I think it affected the way the ballclub performed, regardless of their own individual statistics. Also Bedard wanted to see free agency as opposed to signing an extension, it didn’t make sense to keep him around for a sandwich pick this year.
How about the fact that our offense is the red flag thus far, combined with the fact that Old Man Miggy is batting .345 with 5 HR and 31 RBI (all numbers that would lead our team at this point)
Bynum is our only starter over .300 – and that’s because he’s only 6 games in.
as for power – or lack thereof – fifteen year old Dustin Pedroia has similiar RBI thus far as our team leaders (Huff, mora, millar)
That’s PATHETIC.
sure – it’s nice to see The Stick leading the team with 7 HR but besides that – as Tim “the tooman” Taylor might say, we need more power
is Scott, Albers, Patton, Sarfarte, Costanzo still a good haul – considering the fact that Miggy’s offense could be exactly what we’re missing right now?
Joe the Guy:
With all due respect my friend, three things.
1. The Oriole fans far outnumbered the Red Sox fans in the past two games. And nothing gives me greater pleasure than seeing a cocky, drunk Sox fan get tossed from a game under a hail of “Boston Sucks” chants because he likely ran his mouth. I agree that we should taunt them by saying hey thanks for the cash, dick. But there’s only so much Sox fan hate because the O’s have been playing away games in Baltimore for years, with thousands of “Let’s Go Red Sox” chants drowning out the fucking stadium loudspeakers. They’ve shown utter disrespect (not all of them, and we’ve all had run ins with friendly, intelligent Sox fans, and the hate is clearly directed at bad Sox fans) for the most part to O’s fans and to Baltimore. Sox fans, more or less, are Yankees fans now because of their two recent World Series championships, and its sad to see a once-classy fanbase turn into rabid yuppy bandwagoners.
2. I’ve never complained when the stadium is empty. I don’t care if people aren’t there – why should they be? They’ve been duped for 10 years by the organization itself and they don’t trust it. I don’t agree with that line of thinking, but that’s the situation and it’s going to take time to get them back. If there are tons of loud, cheering O’s fans like there were for those two Sox games, then GREAT. It gives me goosebumps listening to when, after a couple minutes of “Let’s Go Red Sox” chants, they are drowned out by more pleasingly fast tempo’d and relentless-sounding “Let’s Go O’s” chants. But if thousands of Sox fans flock to the Yard, I can’t complain about because the Orioles organization gets a few more bucks from beer and popcorn and $11 tickets?
3. Miguel Tejada would not be hitting with that much authority if he were still an Oriole. This is a clear case of a downtrodden AL East hitter getting a much-needed change of scenery in the sunny and hitter-friendly NL Central. He’s still doing more for this team being off this team than being on it. If there’s Miggi, there’s no Luke Scott, no Matt Albers, no Dennis Sarfate. I’d much rather have those three than Miggi’s slew of GIDP’s and steroid stigma. Not to mention we got off the hook for like $16 million, nowhere close to what Sox fans will bring to the organization by flooding our ball park.
Also, Joe, I’d expect the hitting to start to warm up soon. They’ve had a lot of bad luck, illness, and injury (in Ramon’s case) to deal with along with the standard excuse of cold weather and whatever. The team BABIP has been atrocious, which just says that a lot of these guys are going to start to see more hits more often.
Also, yea, I agree that there’s no way Tejada is his rejuvenated self if he’s still in B’more. No way. Plus who knows how good the pitching is without Albers and Sarfate? If batting is the red flag, then you have to say the pitching has just been lights out so far (except for Trachsel and Jamie Walker, notably).
Lost in the craziness has been the Jim Hoey thing. Sucks, huh? Here’s hoping he can bounce back from it.
I guess embedding doesn’t work. This is amazing on so many levels:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YacN3Ek2B_8
Yes. Yes it is.
Millar – Guitar and Vocals
Jones – Drums
Guthrie – Horn and Vocals
Loewen – Keyboards
Sherrill – Guitar
Sarfate – Bass
@Dan – nice lil nugget from the Lost Season Boys
@neal where’s this post’s pic from?
Where’s the pic of the young lady in pink from? O_O
@ Joe – I get the argument about spending money in our city, and insofar as it helps the locally owned businesses I’m with you. But that’s as far as I’ll go.
I can’t say that asshole Sox fans represent the majority, but there are certainly enough of them to justify a response. Having pride in your team and city includes letting those folks know that they’re not welcome. I don’t condone violence — let me be clear on that — but I absolutely do condone a vigorous response within the bounds of legality. And if a dumb, drunk Sox fan starts something, I don’t have a problem with him getting handled.
@ John – that pic is an original illustration by Daniel, with some finishing help from a dude whose name I can’t remember (they shared a studio at the time). Pretty hot stuff, no? That goes back to the early days of TLC and I thought now might be a nice time to bring it back.
For those who don’t know Daniel, he and I have worked together for years on comic books and other projects. These days he’s my go-to guy for Slant Six.
…WOW, I thought some Os might do a video like that after reading about that first re-emergence of Orioles Magic in the clubhouse on Roch’s blog, but …they actually did it! Totally totally awesome.
Dan, that Orioles magic video….awesome. I’m not regretting the Tejada trade one bit. Can you picture miggy in that video. i sure cant.
Seriously, he was nothing but drama, and a clubhouse cancer, no matter what numbers he puts up. he had 150RBI once for us and it didnt help. Dont forget about the whole “lied about his age” thing. It would have been just another negetive that people accross the media would associate with B-more. He wasnt happy here, and his play here reflected it. You cant ask for more out of Albers. And Scott started red hot helping us to that great 6-1 start. Sarfate just needs to find his command again, and he’ll be money.
The Bedard trade could be the biggest steal since the glenn davis trade. Only this one looks like its working in oir favor. AJ’s gonna be great, Sherrill is fucking awesome, and Tillman at age 19 is already in Bowie, and is supposed to be the next big thing. Bedard hasnt been lights out like he was last year, and has spent time on the DL already.
We just need to remember that we need to trust whatever choices mr. macphail makes. We are playing above expectations this year, and hope that the bats heat up with the weather.
As far as red sox fans, neal said it right. asshole fans arent the majority. I’ve had a couple conversations at games with red sox fans, just about baseball in general, or comparing our ballparks, and most are amazed at our park, and have nothing but good things to say. But yankee fans, fuck them. all of them.
I wont be around tomorrow, so on fridays game…. The O’s are hot, but i think its time for a blow out game since were playing the lowly Nats. I mean, i want to see the O’s take of of these games like 10-1, 12-3, 11-0. Something huge, 31-3. Also excited that DT is skipping trachsel spot in the rotation.
Last night, Jake Arrieta tossed seven scoreless innings, allowing two hits and striking out six. He’s 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA and leads the Carolina League with 53 strikeouts.
ARRIETA!
How long can we possibly hold down Oscar Salazar? Dude is batting .322 at AAA. I changed my mind, let’s get rid of Cintron. Luis might just be a better part-time guy, like he thought he was when Miggi broke his wrist and played great. He’s looked better since Bynum’s been called up. And he’s out of options.
Anybody catch Freddie Freebie’s sick little double play flip to Roberts in the last game? It’s so nice having someone at shortstop capable of turning a double play, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that in the last few games, the O’s have turned a hell of a lot of double plays.
Anyone going to any of the games this weekend? I’m going to try to make it out to one of them – maybe tomorrow when the weather is a little better.