The Mid-Season AFC Playoff Picture
That impressive Ravens win on Sunday naturally has a lot of folks talking, and the most bold among them have started to let slip with the “P” word. And why not? They’re 5-3 (tied, believe it or not, for third in the conference) and have allowed only 137 points (17.125/game). At this stage of the season, only two teams in the conference are clearly better: Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
So what I figure I’ll do now and every week (or so) until the end of the season is handicap the playoff picture and decide who’s in, who’s out based on current stats and trends. Not “here’s who makes it if the season ends today,” but rather “here’s who I see making it when the season actually ends.”
Heading into week ten:
Locks
It would take an unprecedented meltdown for the Titans not to make it. If you can call a team a lock this early, it’s them.
Probables
The Steelers head up this group, although their schedule is absolutely brutal. The Broncos are only 4-4 but they play in a weak division and lead the conference in total offense. The Ravens have to be here as well, as a wild-card, based on what they’ve shown so far — second in the league in total defense, second in the conference running the ball, and getting contributions from up and down the roster. Based on how things look right now, they belong.
Bubble
The entire AFC East goes here, with three teams (Jets, Patriots, Bills) tied atop the division at 5-3. I could easily see all three getting in, and I could just as easily see two of them falling off and only the eventual winner getting in. You’d be crazy to count out the Colts or the Chargers despite their struggles, and the Jaguars remain a dark horse.
My (very rough) predictions as of now: Titans, Steelers, Broncos, Ravens, Jets, Colts
As a side note: the Chargers’ defense is astoundingly bad. I had them in over the Colts until I looked that up. They’re in serious trouble.
Titans, Steelers, Patriots, Chargers, Ravens, Jets
Titans – lock
Steelers – unfortunately win AFC North
Patriots – I hate them, but I think they beat their division head to head in upcoming weeks to give them an edge.
Chargers – astoundingly bad defense, but LT getting healthy finally. And Denver’s defense is also VERY bad.
Jets – Favre has some magic left
Ravens – I’m Wacco for Flacco
Titans – lock
Steelers – lock for the playoffs, but not necessarily the division
San Diego – Hard to say who’s worse; San Diego or Denver, but I’ve got my bet Denver isn’t as good.
New England – Worlds better than the Jets.
Baltimore – Could probably end up with a better record than anyone in the AFC West, and likely better than the Jets. Tough schedule though.
Indianapolis – I never count them out.
Anyone see the Suggs comments about Harbaugh and winning on the road? I read it over on Casey Willits blog over at WNST. He basically said the coach is the difference because he’s done a good job getting them ready.
Love to see that stuff.
So the Raiders cut DeAngelo Hall. Would that make sense for us if McAllister goes on the IR? I still lean to ‘no’ just because Harbaugh is trying to change the culture in the club house, and I don’t think bringing him in will help. But it would be interesting. Not sure how the funds would shape out or if its even feasible in that sense, though.
Yeah, but the Raiders organization is interesting. They bring out the worst in players. He and Washington were teammates, and it might help the situation. I don’t remember what he said, but Washington had some choice words about the Raiders organization after he got picked up by us.
yeah the more i think about deangelo hall the more i wish the ravens would sign him if possible. seems like the absolute worst case scenario would be adding a guy approaching cmac’s talent, with possibly less baggage than cmac, and no injuries.
honestly don’t know that much about him at this point but to greg’s point it might not be a bad idea to never do what the raiders do and often do what the raiders don’t (employ deangelo hall for instance).
god the raiders are the worst.
The Raiders are the single most embarrassing franchise in major professional sports. There’s nothing about them that you would ever want your team to do or be. Terrible.
I can’t see any reason why the Ravens wouldn’t at least get in touch with Hall’s people to kick the tires. The only problem would be money, since a long-term contract will cost serious coin and I can’t see what’s in it for Hall to just come here for half a season.
excellent point about the terrible state of the Raiders. I guess they should probably call him. It completely slipped my mind that Washington played with him there last year.
Just as I got on board w/ D. Hall, McAllister goes to the IR, and the Redskins sign D. Hall. Oh well, Washington has filled in well, and Walker hasn’t been quite as aweful as I was expecting. Hopefully Rolle plays well in his return.
Also I saw Landry may be headed to the IR now. Leonard has filled in really well and I don’t think we’re missing too much not having Landry in there. But it seems to me, that if he can avoid the IR and return, his presence may just light a spark in the secondary during that tough stretch we have coming up. I’m pretty much talking out of my ass right now, but it makes sense to me.
Hall is probably the most overrated PLAYER in the league, not just corner. According to Stats Inc, he had 40 passes for 566 yards completed against him in 8 games with Oakland (http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/ordine/blog/2008/11/cb_hall_doesnt_seem_like_a_fit.html).
That means his opposition is on pace for the Pro Bowl (80 catches for ~1150 yards). Considering he’s faced KC, BUF, BAL and ATL as the #2 corner on his team, I’m pretty comfortable in thinking he sucks. Glad he didn’t sign with the Ravens.
yeah steve i agree. after reading a lot about him last night he seemed like way too much of a gamble – and he has in fact sucked for the last two seasons especially.
plus imagine the 15 yard penalties that smug fuck hines ward could draw out of him.
@bbm… here we are having a good conversation about DeAngelo Hall, and you have to bring up Hines Ward and fill my body with rage and hate. Thanks.
eh i’m back to loving to hate him. he took a pretty brutal hit the other night – that always helps things.
I’m just being picky, but the Bills are actually a top 10 passing team this year, albeit very quietly.