Who’s Your 25? (plus O’s-Tribe)
Chris Waters is on the mound tonight against Scott Lewis and the Indians for the third of a four game series. Waters has been an interesting addition to the team this year, having performed, on the whole, better than expected. It got me to thinking: where does he fit in next year? Or, does he even fit at all?
From there my mind wandered to that central question with which we’re all quietly grappling: what should this team look like next year? It’s early, obviously, but think about it. If you had the control right now, who would you send out there?
You don’t actually need 25 if you don’t feel like going that deep, but at the very least I’d like to know your starting nine plus five starting pitchers.
I figure we’ll revisit this topic a few times during the course of the Hot Stove season, and use it as a rough guidebook for the offseason comings and goings.
Give it some thought and fire away in the comments.
PS: here’s a link to MLBTR’s list of pending free agents.
I could be wrong, but it feels like interest in the Orioles — insofar as the 2008 season is concerned — is at its lowest ebb.
7-1 loss to the Indians’ version of Chris Waters. Damn.
I was pondering this very same question earlier today.
Bottom line is, next year doesn’t look a whole lot different from this year. Which is not to say it will be worse or even the same as this year. But we’re losing a grand total of 4 guys plus a bunch of scrubs for sure, and the free agent class leaves much to be desired for sure. We’re likely to say goodbye to Roberts and perhaps Sherrill, Huff, and Mora this winter via trades, and basically we’ll be another young rebuilding team, and the rotation is gonna look a lot like Guthrie-Cabrera-?-?-?, as if to somehow convince ourselves that Cabrera isn’t also a ?.
But – our young guys from this year (Olson, Liz, Penn) are another year older, hopefully more battle ready. And of course, our farm system will have another year of recovery under its belt, and will look that much better for it.
Basically, my 25 man roster on opening day (against the Yankees, if I’m not mistaken) will look probably like this (I’ll do as best as I can…and these are my guesses) :
Outfield: Scott, Markakis, Jones, Montanez
Catcher: Hernandez, Quiroz
Infield: Mora, ?, ?, ?, Juan Castro, Oscar Salazar
DH: ?
Starters: Guthrie, Cabrera, Olson, Jon Garland, Penn
Bullpen: Sherrill, Johnson, Walker, Ray, Albers, Liz, Bierd
There’s a couple wildcards in there, too. Troy Patton and Danys Baez – who knows what we’ll get from them? Chris Waters and Brian Burres might still be around, but more likely they’ll be in Norfolk. If I’m not mistaken, Jeff Fiorentino is out of options next year, but I like Montanez a lot more in the 4th outfielder’s spot.
Basically I see Roberts and Huff traded for some positional help to fill in those blank spaces, and maybe some more arms to throw into the space. I’m a little back and forth about Teixiera…but ultimately I doubt he ends up here for whatever reason.
3 more Wild Pitches and the Orioles can win the Triple Crown of Wildness for th AL. Most walks, HBP and WP.
Someone left that comment on Schmuck’s blog. That is totally ridiculous, and true.
I don’t think Roberts gets traded this offseason. I think they keep him and try to negotiate an extension, which is wise. Huff may indeed get traded, but he’s a bargain next year if he puts up numbers like this again (which he probably won’t, but it’s worth it to find out). And Cabrera cannot be part of this team’s plans again if they have any self-respect. Cut him loose for god’s sake.
The team seems to have finally given up for this season. Thus the fans give up. Every year, Neal, this is the time most fans lose interest. Football has started, and the O’s are pathetic once again. Sometimes I still do find it hard to believe how bad this franchise let itself get. Things are looking up overall, no question, but good lord…
Oh, I know this is when fans lose interest. I’d be lying if I said my interest was the same now as it was in, say, June. It’s just sad is all.
I can see myself saying, at some point this month, “hey, why not go catch a game tonight?” But I’m not sure I can see a whole lot of other people doing that.
@Andrew: Jon Garland is an interesting choice. I’d love to see him and maybe a Burnett or a Lowe here. Can you imagine how different this season would have been with two more solid, veteran starters? Crazy.
There’s nobody out there at SS in terms of free agents, which is troubling. You have to think this will be addressed via trade. Even if Castro’s the guy for ‘09 we still need to find somebody.
I’d be against trading Roberts unless an overwhelming deal comes along. Huff can stay or go, but it should likewise be a great deal if he leaves. Losing those two guys would create big gaps that I’m not sure we’re prepared to fill.
They must (and will) sign at least one decent starter, no question. If they sign two, all the better. Then you fill out the rotation with two of the group: Patton, Penn, Olson, Liz, Bergeson(?), Tillman(?). The ideal young rotation is still another season away, but we can definitely have a decent rotation next year with the right signings.
If Tex doesn’t come here, I guess I’m OK with Millar/Huff for one last year at first and DH. But after that, you really have to solve those positions. I think Wieters should be given every chance to win the starting C gig in spring training, but otherwise it’s Ramon for one more year. Roberts at 2B. ??? at SS. Mora at 3B for one more year, and then 3B is another position to be solved. Outfield is Jones, Markakis, Scott, and Montanez. At least that’s easy…
That would leave SS as the only major lineup hole needing to be filled for next year (barring trades of course). Not an ideal lineup by any means, but it could be a lot worse. 2010 is shaping up to be really interesting. 3B, 1B, and DH will all have to be filled, hopefully by good, young players.
I like the idea of Guthrie plus Joe Veteran I and possibly Joe Veteran II, then an open competition for the remaining spots. It might just be the best thing not only for the kids but for the team. Make them spend the month of March (and, really, the whole winter) proving that they are ready to get the keys. That could be a lot of fun to watch, actually.
SS is a huge problem no matter how you look at it. We have nobody in the minors (no offense, Blake Davis) and the free agent pool is thin as hell. Somebody suggested a trade for Khalil Greene, and I kind of like that idea. He has a lot of talent, as I remember, but has scuffled lately. Could be a classic “change of scenery” guy. The only problem there is, what will it take to get him?
Teixeira isn’t coming here — I’m more and more resigned to that fact. It would be a great story but he’s probably not worth what he’ll get, and Andy knows that. Huff/Millar will serve us fine there — it’s not like they create a liability.
Wieters for sure next year. And if not him, I’m not so sure I’m comfortable with Ramon on any level anymore. He, likewise, could use a change of scenery.
I’ll comment on first base and pitching, since whether Roberts, etc. gets traded is really just guesswork right now, and yes, if anyone gets moved, it’ll be for a bunch of talent ala Tejada (more than Bedard, I imagine).
I really can’t stand the idea that we’re relying on Kevin Millar to stop gap at first base for yet another year (next year would be 4 years…he’ll be in the running for longest tenured Oriole soon enough – and everybody knows he would rather be a Boston first baseman)…but I honestly don’t know what you do there besides him.
Options:
Mark Teixeria
Kevin Millar
Oscar Salazar
Aubrey Huff
Trade
Luke Scott
Nolan Reimold
Javy Lopez (I kid, I kid)
some other scrub like Mientkiewicz or Casey or Hinske or blah blah
Ouch. We’re probably going to see Reimold go to Norfolk unless he tears it up in Spring Training, but at that point we probably already have a first base plan, and I don’t see Scott moving. Personally, I don’t see why we don’t give the job to Salazar over Millar if for no other reason than to save the dough and give it to Markakis. But yeah, Kevin Millar and his clubhouse personality and mostly soft bat (seriously, a 94 OPS+ isn’t going to cut it from first base in any league) will probably come back for one last ride into the sunset.
Not a lot of options in the pitching department. Guthrie’ll be back we know for sure. Nobody actually knows the gameplan in the Warehosue, but we all agree that at least one veteran guy needs to show up via free agency or trade somehow. Word’s been coming down that Trembley’s been thinking about Liz and Olson and whether they’re starters or relievers. Personally I see progress out of both of them, but Liz has long been thought of by smarter people than I as a reliever and Olson feels to me (in my gut) like a guy who can put it all together sooner rather than later.
I don’t see Cabrera getting cut (even though he’s almost definitely run his welcome out), I don’t see Tillman or Hernandez or Bergesen advancing past Norfolk next year (Tillman still can’t buy a Boh and the other two will be around but not at the beginning of the year), so that leaves us with all of our favorite scrubs, which you all know about.
I guess it comes down to a few things: How healthy are Matt Albers and Troy Patton? How effective are they? Can Jim Johnson reconvert to a starter? Are we getting anything out of Brian Bass? Do we sign one, two, or no free agent pitchers? What about Hayden Penn?
I would definitely pen in Guthrie, Olson, and Cabrera for better or worse into the rotation. Answer those questions and you’ll have a pretty good idea of the rotation and the bullpen.
My 25:
1B A. Huff
2B B. Roberts
3B M. Mora
SS B. Fahey
C R. Hernandez
LF L. Scott
CF A. Jones
RF N. Markakis
OF L. Montanez
OF N. Reimold
IF O. Salazar
IF J. Castro
C G. Quiroz
SP J. Guthrie
SP D. Cabrera
SP G. Olson
SP R. Liz
SP H. Penn
SP/RP B. Burres
RP D. Sarfate
RP R. Bierd
RP D. Baez
RP J. Johnson
RP C. Ray
RP G. Sherrill
Possibly see DCab nontendered, FA pitcher in his place (Garland? Burnett?)
Possibly see Ramon at 1B, Wieters at C, Quiroz released.
Possibly see Tex at 1B, but not likely. Dunn said winning is priority #1 for him. Could see FO resigning Millar instead (will slash wrists).
Possibly see Reimold and Montanez not making it out of ST.
Possibly see Roberts, Huff or Ramon traded.
I’m counting on Walker being gone by next year.
Likely to see Liz, Burres, Penn and Olson moved to the bullpen or AAA, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken moved from AAA into the rotation.
Hoping Sarfate is DFA’d for Mickolio.
Wondering if Johnson will be great again.
Wondering if the FO dumps Baez before the season begins.
Damn. Forgot Albers and Patton. I would likely see this happening at Norfolk:
Bergesen, Berken, Hernandez, Albers, Patton to start. Albers and Patton are there strictly to rehab. Chances are, by the time they are back in the groove, one or two of Liz, Olson or Burres will have screwed up enough starts to option them to Norfolk. If Penn screws up; I have no idea what we could do. Put him on the DL maybe. Who could prove he wasn’t hurt?
Waters and Mitchell moved into Norfolk pen. Leicester, Keisler, Knotts, Bukvich… whatever other AAAA pitcher we have no use for, cut them all. I hope I never see another AAAA starting pitcher in Norfolk again. I want nothing but MLB ready prospects simmering down there. I’m serious MacPhail, don’t make me come down there.
I’d hold onto Sarfate…he was horrible, just awful as a starter, but he’s been useful in the pen. Interesting thoughts that Cabrera, Baez, and Walker could be cut – I wonder how many games Walker has cost us this year with his awful pitching. I also wonder what happened to him…maybe we just over used him last year? He was excellent, and now he’s just really, really bad. I guess that’s what happens when you take a LOOGY and make him your eighth inning guy (and sometimes closer)…I’d be on the lookout for the same thing to happen to Sherrill next year.
Hmm. If I were in charge, I’d probably cut all three and say “Fuck it, these guys suck and can’t help us longterm or shortterm, let’s put in some major league minimum guys and win some games.” But then I worry about Patton and Albers and the very strong possibility that they could give us nothing and both would retire because of injuries real soon. They could Matt Albers from the first half of this year, or they could be Jaret Wright from last year. Yuck. But I’d still probably cut Walker and replace him with Mickolio or Cormier.
Bottom line, as I sit here thinking about this, is that a lot of this is shuffling the deck chairs. We’re not going to be any good next year either. The rotation is still going to be inexperienced, and we’re still going to have offensive holes at short and first at least. If Roberts or Huff get traded, that’s our lead off guy and our clean up hitter gone.
What next year is is the chance to wait on Tillman and Arrieta and Matusz. Those are the guys we’re waiting on, combine them with Guthrie and one other veteran stabilizer and you’ve got your rotation…and we won’t be any good until we have a rotation.