Winter Meetings Update
Schmuck‘s on top of the news about the potential of adding a Japanese starter, including a very heartening quote:
Evans said he was impressed with the Orioles grasp of the “infrastructure” necessary for a Asian pitcher to make a successful entry into the major leagues.
“They are aware of the things you have to do on and off the field,” Evans said, “which is great to see for a team that has not been involved in this area before. I can’t say enough about what Andy MacPhail and John Stockstill have done.”
Nice.
That, and a deal for Izturis appears to be on the way. I like what I’ve seen so far.
Izturis should provide the defense we need at SS, and any offense will be a bonus. Know nothing of his personality or makeup, but hopefully he’s also a clubhouse asset and keeps a positive outlook.
That’ll be necessary until we get sufficient starting pitching; the bullpen is shaping up strong, but you can’t expect to get 6 innings out of your bullpen every game. . .or at least 4 out of every 5 games. . .
Sabathia accepts Yanks deal. 7 years/160 mil. Unbelievable. Seven years??!!? This will come back to bite them, guaranteed, although they can afford for him to give them two or three good years and flop. That’s why baseball is ridiculous. I hope they go ahead and give Burnett 5 years as well…
CC Sabathia = Bartolo Colon
Wishful thinking maybe, but I would love to see that contract bite them. They clearly didn’t read my Mike Hampton post from last week.
@everyone: I won’t be around much today, so please feel free to rock the breaking news and analysis. I’m already looking forward to reading it.
Man, the Yanks are probably going to land Lowe also.
I guess that takes them out of the running for AJ, though…
Generally I try not to worry what the Yankees are doing until October because there’s little that I can do except give myself an ulcer, and what they do do really doesn’t affect the Orioles very much.
That said, they could be frightening this year. Right now their rotation is Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain. If they add Lowe – which looks like it could very well happen by dusk tonight – and Sheets or Burnett (and they were supposedly willing to beat Atlanta’s foolishly high bid)…that’d be a rotation with 5 ace-caliber type pitchers (albeit one where everybody has at least an injury concern). If they made the playoffs, it’d be hard to imagine anybody beating them in a short series, and the last thing in the world I want is another Yankee championship.
The good news, from what I can gather, is that Sabathia’s signing puts the Yankees basically out of the Mark Teixeria sweepstakes, which should heat up now that he’s the undoubted premium free agent available. Everything I’ve read suggests that New York wanted either Sabathia or Tex but not both. And the second to last thing I ever want is to see Tex in pinstripes.
MLBTR, according to Steve Phillips of ESPN (who I trust less than a weatherman) says that Izturis is an Oriole, pending a physical.
Is there any talk of Dunn at this point? He’s kind of like Luke Scott, but a lot better, and he’ll come relatively cheap I think. He just might hit 50 home runs in Camden Yards. If you get Dunn, you just package Scott and trade him. And going after Tex does not preclude us from signing Dunn…
I’d be down for Dunn definitely. He’d frustrate with the strikeouts at times, but damn would he be a beast in Camden. There hasn’t really been any substantial talk about him, though, in regards to the Orioles.
Meanwhile, there’s this from Steve Melewski about Kawakami and Zaun.
And this from Ken Rosenthal’s winter meetings blog about Tex preferring to play in the East Coast. It would seem it’s down to the O’s, the Nats, and the Sox for Tex.
And… THIS. O’s offer ain’t no joke, boys. This is getting exciting.
Sorry, here’s the link:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2008/12/teixeira-negoti.html
I really don’t see any reason why Teixeira doesn’t end up here. I won’t be surprised if he doesn’t — don’t get me wrong — but as of now we’re in as good a spot as anyone else.
He doesn’t make the O’s an instant winner, but I think it’d be a good move.
I’m starting to get mildly concerned about the pitching, though. With Garland asking too much, are we down to Byrd and Looper and hopefully one of the Japanese guys? Would that be enough?
Trading Olson right now makes no sense.
Very cool stuff. I had a feeling Angelos would approve a huge offer. I love that we’re being aggressive here (if the rumor is true). I think the money/years might end up being just about equal between the three teams. Will Tex choose winning and not home over nonwinning and home? Who knows? If he chooses nonwinning and home, the O’s will win over the Nats.
I’m with Neal though, the pitching is a concern. Our starting pitching situation is still a disaster, of course, and with the decent options asking for and getting absurd offers, who are we left with? Looper is basically Benson – we might as well sign Benson again. Byrd is not going to help much at all. Who else is there if Garland is out? I’m not a big believer in those 33 year old Japanese guys…
Looper had a very good ERA last season if I’m not mistaken.
Don’t worry, you know Andy is going to focus on his pitching. There’s plenty of time left. Don’t forget about Ben Sheets, either. The market is so focused on the two biggest names, CC and Tex, that Andy has no choice to go after Tex NOW if he wants to sign him. Once both of these guys are out of the way, we’ll start to hear about pitching, I suspect.
Wow. And you know Angelos won’t let the Nats outbid him. He resents the shit out of that team. This is getting to be Wieters-last-minute-signing exciting.
neal i was going to suggest that you try to put up football threads mid-week if possible. that’s when i feel like talking shit anyway. after the game i’m either in a euphoric haze for three days or don’t feel like talking about it.
especially this week dude jesus!
1) There is one Orioles Hangout “insider” (approved by the site owner as having a semi-legit source) that believes Tex will be announced an Oriole tomorrow. Take with TONS OF SALT, but they’ve been right before. And they’ve also been wrong before. Hence the salt.
2) BBM or any of you football types, is there ANY way I can watch Sunday’s game from a computer?? I have to work that night and I’d love to avoid relying on a Gameday type of online program to follow one of the biggest games in Ravens regular season history. Please help.
Does adding Sabathia really help the Yankees? Does it make sense that CC’s 20-wins are just replacing Mussina’s 20-wins, and the only thing the Yankees have done otherwise is added Swisher and everyone else got a year older? Sounds to me that without another couple moves, they are hitting a 90-win ceiling without another pitcher added in the rotation.
Greg: You absolutely have to stop thinking of pitchers in terms of wins. Sabathia was a far and away better pitcher than Mussina last year – and Mussina was awfully good. The Yankees are upgraded for certain. Also, even so, you have to remember that having Chien Ming Wang around is a big deal.
Dan: Com’on, Orioles Hangout? You gotta be kidding me.
I’m assuming the meetings are basically over for the Orioles. I am satisfied. I really am. We’re a better team than we were, and we set up enough stuff that I heard about to feel good about the rest of the offseason.
Now: before Christmas, bring me a Teixeria road jersey.
@BBM: on it, man. Post coming tonight.
@DTM: there is no way — none — that Tex becomes an Oriole tomorrow. No offense to the Hangout, but aren’t they the same site that broke the “news” of a Roberts trade? I’d love to see it come true, but if it happens it’s going to take more time than that.
Or…is it?
@Andrew: I don’t think Greg is that far off base. Sabathia is better than Mussina, sure, but the fact is that the Yanks lost one good pitcher and replaced him with one very good pitcher. What does that mean for their bottom line, even if Sabathia is, as you say, “far and away better”? Two, three, four wins?
It’s true that you can’t measure the value of a pitcher by wins alone, but they do matter. Sabathia will take the mound every five days and will, more often than not, give the team a chance to win. Mussina did the same thing last year. The rest is up to the guys around him, most of whom haven’t changed. To that extent, they haven’t upgraded in any dramatic way.
As far as Chien Ming Wang, eh. We’ll see.
Hey, I said “TON OF SALT”, didn’t I? Believe me, I blew up on the Hangout once about the “insiders” and had a good conversation with one of the site operators, who assured me they ban anybody who claims to have insider knowledge that isn’t validated. That being said… yes, Tony himself was wrong on the Roberts trade and probably learned a hell of lesson from it. But there have been instances when they were right.
Right now, PGA is rumored to have entered the fray and that after Tex has received all the final offers, he’s said to have guaranteed the Orioles a final shot to top any offer. If nothing else, it makes for good trashy baseball drama. Thought I’d share, and I get that the OH can be full of shit, believe me.
How’s this for more shameless drama: The lights are on at Camden Yards! hahaha I can’t help myself… but it’s true, they are on.
Ok, let’s do this old trick where we compare nameless pitchers:
Pitcher 1: 253 IP, 251 Ks, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 17-10
Pitcher 2: 200.3 IP, 150 Ks, 3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20-9
And you guys want to tell me that switching out Mike Mussina (2) for CC Sabathia (1) is a wash? And you’re not high?
I don’t get why everyone sort of just forgets about Chien Ming Wang or detracts from him or whatever. He’s a groundball machine that puts up sub 4 ERAs and 200 IP in the two years he’s been a full-time pitcher with a 1.3 WHIP to go along with it? He’s a very, very good sinkerballer. It’s like a universal thing to say he’s a not impressive pitcher that I never got – I have a ton of respect for his talent, if none for his uniform.
“You absolutely have to stop thinking of pitchers in terms of wins.”
No I don’t. When it comes to competing for a Cy Young… then yeah… wins don’t matter. But when it comes to a team competing for a playoff spot, all that matters are wins. If Mike Mussina gets 20-wins with a 3.50ERA, and Sabathia gets 22-wins with a 0.53ERA… it really didn’t make a whole damn difference if Sabathia pitched 14 no-hitters and Mussina won 8-games with scores of 16-12. Sabathia only realistically can replace Mike Mussina’s 20 wins and maybe throw on 2-4 extra. Unfortunately, those four extra wins still wouldn’t have given them a wild card spot for 2008.
They need to upgrade at their 4th and 5th starters to be very competitive, but losing Wang for the season hurt a lot. But the fact remains that Sabathia really only supplants Mussina and tacks on about 4 wins.
I hope you can feel my head exploding.
@Andrew: I know you’re a stat head, and I respect that. It’s the kind of stuff I love to read, even if I often disagree. But tell me specifically where you find fault with what I said here:
Sabathia will take the mound every five days and will, more often than not, give the team a chance to win. Mussina did the same thing last year. The rest is up to the guys around him, most of whom haven’t changed. To that extent, they haven’t upgraded in any dramatic way.
I never claimed it was a “wash”, but Greg’s right. Sabathia gives them — realistically — 2-4 more wins next year. He’s a great pitcher (right now) but it’s not as if this move dramatically alters the makeup of the team. It makes them better, but it doesn’t suddenly make them great.
Ok, let’s start with this…
Do you think if we trade Jeremy Guthrie and his 10 wins away for Brian Moehler and his 11 wins we are improving the Orioles – or at least not ruining the pitching staff with nonsense?
How about the idea that the starter’s job is not to get the win, but to give his team the best chance to win as possible. Do you really think that if CC Sabathia is thorwing 14 no hitters he still ends up with only 22 wins? What is he doing on those other 13 starts that he’s stinking so bad? Or, perhaps more realistically, do you think that if Mike Mussina is giving up 12 runs in 8 games he’s getting 8 wins? I don’t, because no team is scoring that many runs on average in the history of the game.
Not to mention the bullpen drain difference (OK, I will mention it). CC threw about 1 and a half innings more per start than Mike last year. That really adds up in terms of bullpenery.
Now let’s clarify, because I fucking hate talking about the Yankees getting better. Does this signing make them better than they were last year? Yes, it does. Even if it’s only 4 or 5 wins – that’s probably enough last year to put them very close to or at the wildcard over Boston. Does this signing put them over the top? I doubt it, because while the probably rotation of Wang-Sabathia-Chamberlain-Burnett-Pettitte looks pretty good, their offense looks a little weak, and Boston and Tampa are both very, very, very good themselves.
But really, this is more than just a small upgrade, in my opinion.
Who wants to bet Tex decides on a team tomorrow?
6 pack of your favorite beer?
I wonder if Boras would pressure Tex to make a choice sooner so as to beef up ManRam’s market? It would seem that if Manny were in higher demand sooner, Boras would stand to make quite the fee on these two clients, and I wonder how much more he expects to get for Tex than his initial offers have been for.
knowing very little about baseball anymore here is my first impression of the yankees signing:
never give 161 million dollars and a seven year contract to a big fat guy. i think my theory will be proven right within three years.
@DtM: you’re on for the six pack.
@Andrew: great point about Boras. I don’t know if he’s the kind of guy who would pressure for a quick sign, but I think the market as a whole has to factor into his decision.
@BBM: yep.
@everyone: just heard on the radio that the Nationals offered Teixeira 8 years, $160 million while the O’s offered 7 years, $150 million. Wow.
Also, I heard Ryan Freel on with Garceau and that chick from Miami today. He sounded like a very cool guy, kind of Millar-esque in terms of his attitude and enthusiasm. I think he’ll fit in here just fine.
I really believe McPhail, with Angelos approval, will get it done with Teixeira. . .just a gut feeling that MT will forego a couple of million – maybe 20 – to play for the O’s and be a major factor in the building of a baseball powerhouse.
The long-term plan and the folks to execute implementing that plan are in place, and I firmly believe they’re making a pervasive argument to MT.
Could just be wishful thinking, but I also believe he’ll sign this week.
fingers crossed.
ride on
rick
I believe the Nats offer, but I believe the O’s offer is old information. In fact, Roch says all teams are at 8 years. O’s will go 10/210 or more before this is all over.
I heard the same thing about tex this morning. Our offer is 1.4M annually (if its about the money)
If its about the years, we know CC got a scammy opt out clause after 3 or 4 of his 7 yr deal (pretty sure)
So if you figure Tex gets the same then the 8yr over 7yr doesn’t really matter
If its about “winning” – do we think the Yankees are capable of putting a quarter of a million dollars down on 2 cats?
I do.
Are the Sox capable of low-balling their young MVP, ROY, gold glove 2nd basemen to a 40M contract then turning around a week later and offering 150+ to the “hot” free agent? Then force your WS MVP aging vet to prove himself in Spring Training post-surgery, not to win a job, but to be traded. I think that these “baggage” related elements to Tex might be sort of bad for clubhouse dynamic. At least risky. But I think they’d do it.
The Moral of All This: we must be on the short list at this point, which is encouraging. The Mets have priced themselves out after Putz and Krod, another Terrible contract.
Im not going to believe any talk about an “economic crisis” until baseball players stop getting rediculous contracts.
Sorry. What were we talking about again?
The national media will say Red Sox until Tex is presented in a damn Orioles uniform. The problem with the national media is two-fold:
1. They are paid to say something, and say things frequently.
2. They can’t afford to hurt their reputation by being overly bold or wrong.
Thus, they play it safe. They go on track record. The Orioles have a bad track record of signing free agents and are a bad team. The Red Sox have a good track record and are a good team. When thought of like this, it’s a no-brainer and 99% of the national media or even local media will predict Tex signs with the Red Sox.
The truth is, nobody really knows anything. The Ken Rosenthals of the world might get some numbers directly from Scott Boras’ mouth, but that doesn’t mean shit. The Roch Kubatkos of the world might get some quotes directly from Andy MacPhail’s mouth, but that doesn’t mean shit either. In each case, Boras and MacPhail have no obligation to tell the media anything, and in fact may benefit from not disclosing the full truth.
Thus, we have safe predictions from media people based almost solely on track record and win totals. The Orioles, although they’ve made a strong offer, have been altogether unmentioned by some members of the media when they talk about Tex. Peter Gammons himself mentioned only the Angels, Red Sox, and Nationals just yesterday.
I’m not really blaming these guys, because in the end, part of being in the “real” media is having to play by the rules and protect a fragile image. I’m just saying let’s not read into the Tex Will Most Likely Go To The Sox stuff when it’s largley based on the Orioles and Nationals being “bad” teams. These guys don’t have any new information, they’re just figuring who would turn down the Sox.
Yanks are back in for Tex, according to Heyman (for whatever that’s worth). Fuckers. Ironically, I think they’d be fine if Tex went to the O’s. They’re just getting in to keep him away from the Sox. Baseball is absurd.
Yanks are never out. Even when they’re out, they’re not out.
At the point where you’re willing to offer $150 million, is there really any reason not to then offer $200 million if that’s what it takes? These numbers are so far out that I have a sense the O’s might just be saying “fuck it, we’re getting him.”
Which, I guess, is just fine by me.
Sometimes I feel like Heyman just follows Cashman around and when there isn’t news he’ll go nuts to try to make Yankee news. But I can’t imagine the Yankees would realistically be in it anything more than to drive the price up for the Red Sox or Orioles. It’s certainly in their interests to make both of those teams cripple themselves financially.
But seriously, did they really acquire Nick Swisher to be a bench player, when that role didn’t suit him last year? Or did their gameplan change after they got CC? That’d be a stunning development for an experienced, steady guy like Cashman.
Anyway. I’m not saying the Yankees won’t get Tex, but I highly doubt it. Highly. Also I really, really, really might give up on baseball altogether and start following hockey or something if the Yankees sign Sabathia, Teixeria, Burnett, and trade for Mike Cameron and Nick Swisher.
I am, by the way, totally on board giving Tex anywhere up to about 8 years 200 million. I’d compare it most closely to the Tigers signing Ordonez and Rodriguez in 2004. Building blocks. A strong defense and offense can provide a very good foundation for our big three minor league pitchers coming up in the next few years, and Tex provides both. Not to mention the fan interest built, and the goodwill the Orioles literally buy by spending some cash. Plus I really would like to see what Drew complains about then. Probably that didn’t go after Derek Lowe…
I will quit if the Yankees get Tex, CC, Burnett, and Sheets. I’m kind of not kidding. The sad thing about the state of baseball is that’s totally not far-fetched.
Speaking too soon, I know, but isn’t all this fun?
If that happens, I’ll probably have to quit too. Turn TLC into a Yugo enthusiasts site or something.
I love Hot Stove season.
What is a good hockey team to root for, just in case? Everyone up here loves the Sabres (it’s weird to see Sabres jerseys with Yankee hats next to Sabres jerseys with Red Sox hats, Mets hats, and Bills/Giants hats, but it happens. Rochester fucking LOVES hockey – in fact, my school is a D1 ice hockey school (and pretty good, too) and D3 everything else. No football team at all – although back when we had one, the coach was Tom Coughlin. Ok, done bragging about my kind of crappy school). So I guess I could be a Sabres fan? I’m not going to get into Caps stuff or Flyers stuff…hmm…maybe a random team like Calgary?
I like the Penguins and Capitals myself, but if I was starting fresh I’d totally go with the Flames. Or maybe the Avalanche. Something that’s off the path but not embarrassing (like the Thrashers or Stars or Ducks).
It’s also fun to try to follow the various obscure auto racing series. Like German Touring Cars, for example.
Watching the Steve McQueen film LeMans and a bunch of Top Gear almost got me into Formula One Racing, but then I realized that Michael Schumaker makes the sport basically uninteresting.
Bowling has some real characters. I won’t call them “athletes.”
Imagine if Tex signs with Boston. He would go from hometown hero to the most hated Benedict Arnold ever. The booing at Camden would be absolutely merciless, if you could hear it over the cheering Sox fans. That one was for you, Drew.
The Mets took Rocky Cherry in the Rule 5 draft, thus ending the funny name era in Baltimore, and probably finalizing the Mets bullpen makeover, which looks pretty damn good for them now. They’ll be a strong presence all year now, to be sure.
I’m glad, actually, because for a while everyone around here would comment about how great Andy McPhail was doing because we got Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore and Jake Renshaw for Steve Trachsel. And Cherry was useless and is gone, Scott Moore’s been useless, and Renshaw is a low level minor leaguer still. It wasn’t exactly the greatest trade in the world, which it sort of got made out to be. I’m glad we can maybe now close the book on it, and maybe even start talking a little more objectively about how good or bad McPhail’s been for us. And for the record, he’s been pretty good…but we certainly don’t have much tangible evidence of that.
In fact, what we’ve got is a lot of potential in Adam Jones, a rejuvenated minor league pitching system featuring Chris Tillman, Luke Scott, and a bunch of money in pocket. Maybe I’m making sort of a too grandiose point vis a vis Rocky Cherry, but I think it goes to show that it takes a couple years to accurately and adequately identify what was great and what was poor of any given trade or signing or lack thereof. Case in point: not signing Pavano turned out to be one of the best things we ever didn’t do.
I think the fact that he got 3 bodies for Steve Trachsel still speaks volumes
Just like the fact that he got 3 bodies for Ramon
***
I think the point that you made that,
“it goes to show that it takes a couple years to accurately and adequately identify what was great and what was poor of any given trade or signing or lack thereof”
is correct, but also contradicts your earlier point that,
“Scott Moore’s been useless, and Renshaw is a low level minor leaguer still”
***
Still no pitching reinforcements this offseason. That is BAD.