Are the Orioles Moving Too Slowly?
I spent a little time this evening reading through the comments over on Roch‘s blog. Generally speaking, that’s not a good idea. It’s interesting now and then, though, to get a snapshot of what the more vocal segment of Orioles fandom is thinking. Right now they appear to be thinking that Andy MacPhail isn’t moving quickly enough to upgrade the club.
My first temptation is to dismiss that as more of the same, but then I wonder if there’s something to it. I applaud the Millwood trade. That fills one glaring hole. If I’m being honest, though, I’m getting concerned about the remaining issues.
First base. Third base. Back-end bullpen. That last one seems like it won’t be too tough. The first two…not so clear.
Some folks are clamoring for ridiculous trades, like getting Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Not only are those trades not going to happen, they shouldn’t happen. The Orioles are at least a year away from being in a position where a blockbuster, farm-draining acquisition would be good strategy.
That leaves us with two options, both of which work for me. On one hand it’s guys like Nick Johnson, Troy Glaus, Garrett Atkins, etc. On the other it’s creative, out-of-the-blue trades like the one that brought Millwood. I have faith that MacPhail is diligently considering both options and probably one or two more.
In general I like that measured approach. He keeps things on the level and his track record that way is strong. Yet there’s also something to be said for identifying the player(s) you want and acting decisively to get them.
He did that with Millwood and it was a great start. I’m hoping now to see a little bit more of that kind of action. The sooner those questions get resolved, the sooner Dave Trembley and the whole organization can start formulating a game plan.
I’m not advocating a move just for the sake of it. But if the shot is there, take it.
I don’t think he moves too slow during any one particular offseason (so far), but I am starting to wonder about the overall speed of the rebuild. I know it isn’t a similar situation at all, but if you compare Jack Z’s job in Seattle to Andy MacPhail’s job in Baltimore, Andy starts to look a little…well, slow. And again, they aren’t similar situations at all. At all. But I am starting to wonder if this rebuild really needs/needed to be three or four or five years long.
Oh, and there’s the bottom line, which is that I just don’t think the current iteration of the Orioles franchise can succeed in becoming a viable competitor for any longer than one season (which would be called a “fluke”) in the AL East, for a lot of reasons. That won’t be a popular opinion here, but I can’t deny what I feel deep down.
But overall I haven’t found too much fault in Andy MacPhail’s approach. There have been signings and trades I haven’t liked, yes, but overall he’s been very good to the O’s, even with his conservative approach.
It’s definitely hard to ignore that feeling of anxiety when you start to see names fly off the board. Lackey, Halladay, Matsui, etc., all gone within like 24 hours or so. Teams are busy right now and it feels like the O’s are dragging a little.
But it’s important to keep in mind that the options for the O’s this offseason aren’t great. When the Andy has his eye on something he really wants, it seems to me that he gets it done quickly. Examples being the Tejada trade, the Ramon Hernandez trade, the Millwood trade, and going hard after Tex when everyone one else was. So I think he certainly has the ability to act quickly when he wants to, and it’s times like these when there are a lot of similar options (like the FA 3B candidates) that he bides his time to find the best fit.
But I won’t lie that I’m getting a little nervous. There’s plenty of guys out there and it almost doesn’t matter which one you pick. Just go get it done. I’d like to see us pounce on Bedard quickly if we think his medial records check out. Capps having like 11 suitors doesn’t help that one move any faster, if you think he’s a guy Andy should be going after (debatable).
My quick fix offseason includes signing Glaus, Delgado/Johnson, Bedard, and a closer. That’s a strictly non-trade approach though, and if Andy is considering trades, that’s a significantly longer process.
It’s a really big year for the O’s and for Andy. You could argue that we need to go after a big name and sell the farm now, and you could argue we need one more year. I think we have to see some kind of marked improvement on the field before we sell the farm because, unlike, say, the Mariners, we play in a division in which selling the farm and striking out can set us back far more years than biding our time to find that perfect moment to go all in.
This offseason doesn’t need to be anything special. It just needs to start happening, is all, and it’s early yet. We all basically have a good idea of who we’re going to get to fill needs, so it’s not like we’re missing out on those big names that are off the board. But damn it’s a cold stove right now…
@Andrew – What are those reasons? I don’t mean that as a challenge, I’m just curious. My take is that he’s building (or trying to build) an organization that has the kind of depth you need to compete in the AL East. Lots of prospects, lots of room to have a next man up if/when they don’t pan out. What about his approach makes you think that a one-year fluke is in the offing?
@neal s – A lot of it is the division. Let’s face it: the Orioles are always going to be second-class citizens (at best) in the AL East. In this era of spending and intelligence, there’s just no reason why the Yankees should ever go through a dry spell, and combined with their history they will always be the premium destination of any baseball player.
Combine that with the fact that we have three of the absolute smartest front offices in this division (Tampa, Boston, New York) and frankly I just think the challenge is too great in this division for anyone to build a consistent winner outside of the big two. As great as Tampa Bay is in basically every aspect, you all saw how futile they were last year. And that’s what I think the Orioles’ ceiling might be.
I guess bottom line is: HOW are the Orioles supposed to beat these three teams? What advantage could we possibly hold over them that would make us better than them over the course of three or four years? I don’t have an answer for that question, and I suspect you all might not, either.
Not that I’d be upset with turning into Tampa Bay. Shit, I’d settle for being what Toronto has been in the past few years. ANYTHING would be better than what we lived through this past decade.
And finally, there is a very small concern about the evaluation MacPhail has put on the table. Very, very small. And a ton of it is embedded in this Millwood thing, and I’m probably just overreacting. But Kevin Millwood is (in the AL East) most likely a slightly below-average pitcher who will probably throw 170-180 innings, but he’s being billed to us – you and me, from MacPhail and Dave Trembley – as a top-of-the-rotation arm, and he just isn’t. I don’t know if I’m overreacting to a trade that I’m not a fan of, or if it’s just a marketing move, or if Andy MacPhail honestly believes Millwood is a top percentile starter…but it’s been bugging me. And I am sorry to be the party pooper, but I’m a little drunk and feeling sad and honest – like Paul Kemp.
All valid points. We’re just going to have to see how it plays out, and that point in which we can contend does always seem to be juuust out of reach, even with Andy’s quality rebuilding effort. But we’ll see. The Orioles were competitive for good chunk of the 80s and early 90s. Has the game changed so much that that era can’t really be factored into any argument now? You guys probably know the answer to that better than I do because I wasn’t a huge O’s follower at that time in my life.
On another topic, I heard a good segment about Erik Bedard on Rob Long’s program this morning. His position was clearly against signing Bedard on account of his well-documented flaws. Hearing him so feverishly against signing him, and having the respect that I do for Rob Long, it got me thinking. He made four solid points and basically, do we have good enough answers for/arguments against them:
1. Erik Bedard could be a bad influence on the younger pitchers by being a)surly in general, and b)unwilling to pitch deep into games.
2. Erik Bedard, at 31 in March, is basically what he is at this point, that is to say a guy who averages 136.7 IP and 23.5 starts per season.
3. Erik Bedard can be categorized as being part of that Orioles “losing culture” along with Tejada, Mora, D-Cab, and even Roberts or Huff, and we just shouldn’t be in the business of recycling these guys.
4. Seattle is clearly thinking about contending next year with the acquisitions of Figgins and Lee, etc and it makes you wonder why they haven’t even so much as contacted Bedard’s agent (apparently) when they’ve had him for the past 2 years, seen his potential, and want to contend next year.
Part of me would just be excited to have him back with his enormous potential and his hilarious interviews, that I feel I’ve overlooked these points. Are they enough to say that signing Bedard is a bad idea, or is his potential still that enticing that we’re willing to go back there?
#3 sums it up
@dan the man – Yeah there’s some downside, but Rob’s argument basically comes down to “he’s kind of a dick and gets hurt a lot”. And, well, that’s okay with me because his job in Baltimore hypothetically wouldn’t be hampered by either of those traits.
I don’t really believe in a “losing culture” as a long-term excuse for actual losing. I think the Orioles have been losers because of their lack of talent-base. I further don’t know if I’m ready to accept that professional players, specifically young pitchers, really follow any example they see in front of them like little lemmings. And from what I’ve read, Bedard was pretty good friends with a lot of the team even after he left, so I don’t think he’d be like a clubhouse cancer or anything.
Anyway, the entire, focused point of 2010 is to develop Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and 3E1N as a springboard into 2011. They need to be given a maximum amount of innings to work through their lumps and get established. Adding Bedard, a big injury risk with added injury risk, makes sense for the very fact that he wouldn’t cut into the workload of those four the same way a true innings eater (like, say, Joel Piniero) would.
But I can see the point, if the front office really thinks Bedard wouldn’t fit in this clubhouse (they ought to know better than any of us), than it probably would be best to find someone else.
@Andrew – Fair enough, I accept that rebuttal. I basically agree, although I found myself being swayed against Bedard after hearing those points. Fact is, if it’s a 1 or 2 year deal with some incentives and it’s pretty cheap, what’s the real harm? If he gets hurt, well fine, Jake will probably be ready to go. My issue is if he’s healthy, effective, but won’t pitch innings for whatever reason when a guy like Arrieta is probably out there ready to run into a brick wall for the team. BUT, I do have some faith that Trembley would nip any of that Bedardian behavior in the bud fairly quickly, especially after hyping himself up to be a stricter manager next year.
Also, I must have missed something because I have no idea what 3E1N is, although I imagine it’s Bergesen by deduction.
@dan the man – Sorry, yes 3E1N is Bergesen’s nickname on CC, I believe because of so many misspellings such as Bergsen, Bergeson, and Bergenson. I like it because it sounds a lot like H1N1.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the past Bedard’s innings issue has been that he’s basically come into the dugout after 5 or 6 and said “I’m gassed. I’m done.” and that was It for him, right?
I can see how that rubs a lot of people the wrong way, but if we’re talking about a guy who has a lot of injury issues, I guess I’d want him to let me know when he’s gassed instead of going out and “running through a brick wall” until his arm falls off. I mean, obviously you want a middle-ground type of player, but in my mind I’d prefer the cautious pitcher (so long as his stuff is as electric as Bedard’s was) over the Rambo one.
Don’t get me wrong, though, I’m entirely too biased in preference for Erik Bedard. He was my hands-down favorite Oriole, and he remains my favorite non-Oriole (when he beat the crap out of us in Seattle earlier this year I was almost rooting for him – it was weird, but I just can’t root against the guy), narrowingly, ironically beating out Justin Verlander (who is probably the exact opposite type of player and person).
So take my defense with a grain of salt, because I would jump through the ring of fire, the ring of ice, and over the dog doo stick to get Bedard back in an Orioles uniform.
interesting reading everyone’s comments. i generally agree this year isn’t the year to sell the farm….but we do need someone to play 3rd and a closer at the VERY least.
that said, i am just waiting…i’m sure macphail has something up his sleeve
Again I want to ask everyone as of today how many wins do you think the Orioles have in them in 2010 (as in, if they made no more moves. No Bedard, no third baseman, no first baseman, nothing). I’m just wondering what everyone else is thinking. I’m at 76 wins myself.
@Andrew – Yeah I’d have a hard time putting them above 80, that’s for sure.
I rarely recommend anything from the Orioles Hangout, but in regards to what Neal was saying about a snapshot of Orioles fans, this thread is actually a great representation of the stark divide that exists right now in Birdland. There are two clear camps and it’s pretty interesting the crossroads this organization is at right now.
@Andrew – I meant to answer this when you asked it before — glad you brought it back up. I’d say high seventies, maybe 78. In other words, .500 seems like a reasonable goal to me if the remaining upgrades come through.
@neal s – A follow up then, and I’m just curious still (not really making a point) – what would you have said pre-Millwood trade?
Personally, I’m not so sure, considering the available options, that getting over .500 is espeically viable without a real breakout performance from someone (Matusz, Tillman, Bell, Pie, Reimold). But that’s alright, I suppose.
I think we may surprise this year and get to 80 wins. I think the starters will be much better than most would think. Millwood might end up being #4 in this rotation. I’m predicting a big year for Matusz, a good year for Bergie, and a decent rebound year for Guthrie. I have no idea what to expect from Tillman, but if he falters, bring up Arrieta. So that’s four solid starters there and the potential to develop a good #5, which is nice. This is not counting Bedard obviously, whom I still think we’ll sign.
@Andrew – Pre-Millwood I might have been closer to 70, but I don’t think his acquisition dramatically changes my mind. I think, like sci, that we’ll see at least one young pitcher step up, that Bergesen will stay solid, and that Guthrie will bounce back somewhat. Those things alone should be good for a ten win improvement, and that would put us at 74. Add Millwood and maybe get a few more. Add bullpen depth and two halfway decent corner infielders and maybe 81 isn’t out of reach.
That’s all the rawest of raw speculation, but I think it at least makes sense.
@neal s – Interestingly, I, too, had the O’s had 74 wins pre-Millwood, but I kinda love the vastly different paths we took to our respective destinations.
Myself, I noted the Orioles had a pythag of 69 wins last year, figured a bunch of guys would get better, and only Roberts figures to decline, and subtracting Hill, Eaton, Simon, Uehara, Berken, Hernandez, and Hendrickson from the rotation would be a big net gain. But I also figured at least one player will disappoint, so I figured a five game bump was about right. I also figure Millwood is two games better than Berken and Hernandez combined, so that’s how I’m at 76.
Anyway, we all seem to be roughly on the same page. High 70s right now, probably high 70s and maybe 80 or 81 given some more signings, but nothing to really write home about yet. I’m glad to see that as a community we all seem to have our head on our shoulders. Honestly, that makes me really, really happy after all the arguing we’ve done around here this past year.
It’s going to be all about the rotation. If it’s healthy and productive and the young guys get better, we’ll have a shot at .500. Any solid additions to 1B/3B and the bullpen will certainly help. But I don’t any illusions of contention. I do, however, believe that the 2010 Orioles will be a better team than the 2009 Orioles in an obvious enough way to say, yeah we’re finally getting somewhere with all these young guys.
It’s QUIET right now, which bugs me out. Either Andy is up to something or we should all be preparing for the very real possibility of a disappointing offseason.
Jesus Christ. If it’s true that the Orioles are going to pay Mike Gonzalez 12 million dollars to play in Baltimore for two years AND give up their second round draft pick, I might have to take back all of the nice things I have to say about Andy MacPhail.
That’s just an indefensibly stupid move.
@Andrew – I just got a main post up about Gonzalez. I’m not sure how you can call it indefensibly stupid. That seems like an overreaction.