Hernandez Looks to Play Stopper
I’m still puzzled by the lack of love for young David Hernandez. This is a guy that led the Eastern League in strikeouts last year and posted a 2.91 ERA in his time at Norfolk this year (his career minor league ERA is a respectable 3.87).
I get that he tends to give up a lot of hits and sometimes struggles with his control, but not to the point where you can write him off as a prospect. Anybody that can strike guys out like he does has a shot to stick. Maybe he’s eventually ticketed for a Boat Johnson role, but I want to see what he can do as a starter first.
He’ll get his chance while Koji is on the DL, and I think tonight represents an important step. He’s had enough starts up here to excise any butterflies and should be ready to go out and do what he does best.
My barometer of a Quality Orioles Start these days is six innings and no more than four runs, and that’s what I need to see from Hernandez tonight to feel good about the outing.
He’ll be opposed by one time Top Prospect Ervin Santana, who has struggled mightily this year (1-3, 7.47).
Almost forgot: Nolan Reimold was named Rookie of the Month.
Anybody think he’s got a shot at Rookie of the Year? I see no reason why not if he keeps playing the way he has, but I’m admittedly not sure how strong the competition is.
Rookie of the Year Mid-Season update (as done by damn near everyone):
Your serious contenders: Rick Porcello, Elvis Andrus, Nolan Reimold, Brad Bergesen, Ricky Romero, Vin Mazzaro, Andrew Bailey, and Brett Gardner
Of them, Andrus and Gardner aren’t hitters (Gardner is playing waay above his skillset at the moment), leaving Reimold as the top positional player (and it isn’t even close). Of the pitchers, Porcello is the most known, Bergesen has pitched the best, and they’ve all done well.
There’s a chance if BB and Reimold are both in serious contention in three months that they split a vote and it goes to someone else…but I suspect that a positional player is more valuable to voters than a young pitcher. Reimold is the favorite right now (Bergesen is not too far away, though)
Also: Still not a believer in Hernandez or Berken. It’s funny that I’m touting their stuff and your touting their stats, but it’s telling that almost no scouts think that right now Hernandez or Berken are major league starters long term.
Sure, I want to see what they can do, but I’m not expecting anything.
AW! So close!
Stupid Angel stadium with ridiculously high walls…still can’t complain about a double!
Never doubted you for a second LUUUUUKE!
@Andrew – That is odd, but I think I’m not so much touting his stats as using them to offer some context for my gut feeling that he can be productive. I read a lot about him last year and the consensus seemed to be that as long as he trusts his stuff and attacks the zone he has a chance to be very good. The asterisk was that nobody was quite sure if he could stay consistent.
That would seem to spell setup role, but Spring ’10 is the time to look seriously at that option. Until then, let him start and let’s see what he can do.
As a side note, I have a question for you: what would you call a “good” WHIP? Meaning, where would you like to see that number for a pitcher you feel comfortable with? I have my own sense of it, but I’m curious what the stat-heads think.
@Tomás – Gotta love Luuuuke – he straight mashes the ball.
Early lead is just what the doctor ordered for air-NAN-dez. Got my fingers crossed as of now.
UGH, Finally!!!
Is what Joe Angel just said true? Has Hernandez faced 11 batters and thrown a breaking ball for strike one to seven of them?
I believe Matt Wieters just got his first Major League intentional walk. Save the ball!
Hernandez just got his Guthrie on a little bit, giving up that homer. But, the inning is over and the damage was minimized.
I wonder if he comes back out for the seventh at 97 pitches/69 strikes?
My guess is no, which would mean he went six full, threw a lot of strikes, and gave up three runs, six hits, one walk, two Ks. Not bad at all.
Gotta love Trembley giving the kid a chance in the seventh. I’m surprised and pleased.
air-NAN-dez’s final line: 6.2 IP, 3 runs (all earned), 2 BB, 2 K, 107 pitches and 73 strikes
Hell yes! Wieters throwing out Figgins to end the inning = awesome.
Damn the Boat for taking on water.
The Brim is in effect. Bottom of the order up, Angels down by two.
And there it is. Back in the win column. Time to finally go to bed.
Anytime one of our young pitchers get a ‘W’, it’s a good night.
I’m more leaning towards Neal regarding Hernandez than I am towards Andrew’s view of him, and no it’s not just because of the solid performance tonight. The thing to like about Hernandez is his mound presence, his ability to not get rattled, and his ability to keep hitters off balance by throwing the change and curve. I think he still needs work on all of his pitches, but he throws strikes and it’s an easy-looking 94MPH on that fastball. I see more of a major league pitcher in Dave than I do in Berken, who is a similarly-skilled pitcher but just gets behind in a lot of counts.
Whatever the case, one thing is certain at least at the moment: those strikeouts that Hernandez posted in the minors are not translating in the least to the majors. But that’s ok as long as he understands how to pitch, which it seems he does by using all his pitches.
I like that DT sent him back out there and I also like that DT kept JJ in the game after giving up the run and allowing another base-runner after that. Johnson has moments like this and it’s not a bad idea to let him work it out. I do sense that the All-Star break will be nice for the back end of our bullpen, though.
I did not see any parts of this game. I was out drinking and playing Pokemon Monopoly and watching Rocco’s Modern Life. So there’s sort of your disclaimer from me.
About Hernandez: I don’t expect him to be a starter long-term, but if you’ll remember I said the same thing about Bergesen and I’m all too happy to be wrong about him (although I’m not sure how wrong I was). No offense, Dan, but I don’t think there’s anyway your saying those things about Hernandez if he struggled last night.
Which he did not do. What he also did not do was really show me anything new. In his 4 starts, he has 10 Ks and 10 BBs in 23.1 IP. This is not impressive at all to me. For the time being at least, those huge K numbers from the minors have not translated to the big leagues. The walks have, though.
Like I said, I’m totally open to him convincing me he can be in the starting rotation with the big boys, but so far he has not.
Neal: Obviously the closer the WHIP to 1.00, the better, but the seamhead community (as far as I can tell…not that I want to speak for anyone) doesn’t really care about WHIP because hits are a function of luck. For me, though, anything under 1.3 is pretty respectable, I guess.
If you want to talk about BB/9, under 3.0 is pretty good to me.
By the way, major props to Chris Tillman, who apparently reads my stuff and didn’t like what I had to say. He responded to my quip about him struggling by throwing an incredibly good game last night: 7.2 innings of scoreless ball with just 100 pitches, 4 hits, 7 strikeouts, and 1 walk, which was in his final inning. This was the longest outing Tillman has had in the Orioles organization, and matched his career high.
Roch is saying that Tillman is probably next if Berken falls apart.
@Andrew – Tell me you didn’t just say “hits are a function of luck.”
I mean, hits allowed are a function of luck. They are – it’s part pitcher, part hitter, part luck.