Hill Joins the Orioles
Rack it: the Orioles have acquired Rich Hill from the Cubs, for “a player to be named”. As well and succinctly put by Andrew in the comments, “throw him onto the pile of pitchers we don’t know what to expect from.”
There’s no downside to this move, really. Hill comes bundled with a mess of potential, and it seems to me like he’s a classic “change of scenery” guy. But if none of that comes to pass at all, oh well.
It’s a little strange that we’ve now made two deals for downtrodden Cubs prospects, but on the whole I’m all about MacPhail‘s “buy low” strategy. The guy is smart.
Let’s run down the rotation candidates as they stand now:
Guthrie (lock)
Uehara (lock)
Hill
Penn
Waters
Liz
Hendrickson
Hennessey
Patton
Albers
Pauley
If I’m not missing anybody (and I might be), that’s nine arms of varying quality and potential, all competing for three spots. If we can’t exactly have quality (I’m not 100% sure yet that we don’t), we damn well better have quantity.
Time to lock in on Braden Looper. He’d make a solid addition to the staff, and he’d provide more than a one season stop gap.
This guy’s a warrior, and this would only be his third season as a starter; he’s gonna peak with the O’s if we can sign him.
My prediction:
Guts, Uehara, Hill, Waters, Penn
@ AiR
In regards to your rotation, I’ve seen a bunch of Pauley up these parts and I don’t see him cracking this rotation. He might be a serviceable 5 or a decent long man though.
@Joe the Guy – That’s my guess, too. I don’t think there’s any chance that Hendrickson makes it. He was brought here for the bullpen and as insurance only. The arrival of Hill takes a fringe guy like Hennessey and puts him even further out on the bubble, and both Patton and Albers will probably need some time in AAA or the bullpen.
That’s how it looks on February 2nd, anyway. It will be fun to watch these guys hash it out.
That’s a pretty solid pick for the rotation.
To me it looks more and more like Baez does not have a spot on this roster.
Bass and Simon are also still factors, as is Burres, if they decide to send him to AAA. But yeah, you gotta figure they really aren’t in the picture. Bass I do like as a reliever, though.
Joe: Um, well, I’ve seen a lot of Hayden Penn and I don’t see him cracking this rotation. Your move.
Dan: I can’t imagine the O’s putting Burres back on the 40 man, especially since he’s been terrible in Baltimore. He’s basically a AAAA pitcher and probably just one step above Bergesen as far as backup plans go.
Drew: I hope you’re still reading, because I’m still reading your blogs. My response to you is simple, and I’ve said it lots of times: we don’t judge pitchers just by wins anymore. In fact, if you’re smart, you don’t use wins at all. Ok. Steve Trachsel has more career wins than Daisuke Matsuzaka. What does that tell us? Nothing. Jon Garland has more wins than Guthrie, but you and I both know that Guthrie is better than Garland.
I’ll further break down Drew’s point, which is that he’s angry that the O’s got Hennessey, Hill, Hendrickson, Pauley, and Uehara instead of Sabathia, Lowe, Garland, Burnett, and Sheets. Let’s start with Sabathia and Burnett. The Orioles stand no chance at outbidding New York in anything right now, and everyone is pretty much aware that Burnett’s deal is going to burn the Yankees anyway. Garland: two words describe him, and they are “trending down”…his WHIP last year, combined with his price tag would’ve driven me nuts. At first I thought I wanted him, but then you get past the name recognition and think about it and realize you’re glad he’s not here. As for Lowe and Sheets: I agree with you. I can’t honestly make any argument that is both rational and against signing those guys.
So Drew’s argument is really we should’ve gotten Derek Lowe and Ben Sheets instead of Koji Uehara, David Pauley, Rich Hill, Brad Hennessey, and Mark Hendrickson. Which is valid. But if say from the get-go that for whatever reason (money, age, health, etc.) that Andy MacPhail didn’t want Sheets or Lowe, I’m pretty pleased with the guys he DID get. Heck, we could’ve gone the way of the Pirates and sat on our hands all winter and said “Good enough”.
No. This has been a damn good offseason. Let’s hope it leads to a productive and encouraging season. They don’t always follow one-another, but they usually do.
I see no reason to just dismiss Penn out of hand, Andrew. I don’t expect a lot from him, but if he’s healthy then he has as good a shot at the fifth spot as anyone else. In six minor league seasons he’s got 8 K/9 to just 3 BB/9 — 436 K to 161 BB total. He gives up very few home runs and his 3.87 ERA is respectable. On top of that, he’s still only 24. He obviously didn’t do much when he was up here, but there’s a reason he was considered a high-ceiling prospect.
As far as Drew, looks to me like he took his toys and went home.
That makes me sad. He was fun to argue endlessly and fruitlessly with. Oh well.
I’m not dismissing Penn. I expect he can still be a valid major leaguer. But I see him on the exact same level as Pauley and Hill, honestly. They could all suck, but there’s really no reason I can figure out why they shouldn’t be able to to stick in Baltimore.
Well, Drew knows (both from the comments and from me personally) that he’s welcome here.
I guess I misunderstood your point on Penn. I do agree that he’s pretty much on the same level as Hill or Pauley at this point. My sense from him is that if he can put the health issues away he’ll be a solid pitcher, maybe either a #4 or #5 or a long man. Could even stick as a #3 if everything went right.
This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting spring camps we’ve seen in years.
Drew stars in his own one-man show. He likes to tell us charlatans that “20,000 O’s fans agree with” him. I think, more realistically, it’s the majority of the fans that don’t come to the ballpark anymore have simply forgotten about the O’s or are completely indifferent due to 11 years of losing. Sure there are curmudgeonly fans out there who hate on the organization, with some good reason, I guess.
But listen to the pulse of O’s fans in this city right now (and I’m not saying it’s a pounding pulse), and it’s not bitter or pessimistic or angry. Not in the least. O’s fans are largely optimistic about the direction of the team, they like Andy MacPhail’s rebuilding moves, they understand the plan. They’re on board. They’re willing to let past mistakes go because they see that things are being done right. They have the insight to see that giving up draft picks to overpay free agents who were never coming here in the first place is how we got into this mess. They see that acquiring young, cheap, low-risk/high-reward players, and spending money on big names when the team needs one or two more pieces to compete and when we’ve proved to free agents that we’re on the right track so that they want to come here, is how to win in this league.
I enjoy Drew’s jive as much as the next guy, and he’s certainly welcome here. But I don’t buy what he’s selling, because he speaks for himself, not Orioles fans. When push comes to shove, he goes back to the fact that the O’s have blacklisted him. And that has nothing.. nothing to do with O’s fans, and everything to do with himself.
This has been an excellent offseason, a great, if different, sequel to last season’s blockbuster trades. In less than two seasons, MacPhail has turned the bullpen from a severe weakness into a strength. He’s fixed center field and left field after years of Patterson/Conine/Payton/Matos/Fahey. He ended the Jay Gibbons and Daniel Cabrera eras. The defense is better. The offense is better. The pitching is abundant and on the way. The revolving door of inept managers appears to have stopped. To me, MacPhail has so obviously been a success that to say otherwise is like looking at the ocean and calling it a desert.
I won’t get into a big thing with the Drew bashing here, because I love the guy, but I think the instrumental thing to being an Orioles fan in 2009 is simple. You have to say “It doesn’t matter how we got here. The only thing that matters is how do we get better from here.”
I can’t blame anyone for being angry at the Orioles – or worse, apathetic. I really can’t.
I don’t know what else to say about that. I’m watching the Carribean Series on MLB Network and having a pretty damn good past couple of weeks, and I think the Orioles are better today than they were 1 year ago. I’m an optimist.
I’ll say this: Drew (who is still reading, I’m pretty sure) is probably loving the fact that we’re talking about him. Which is OK by me, because he counts as part of the community and I value that the same way I do with the rest of you. It’s pretty funny though.
As far as his point about spending money, I’m convinced that he doesn’t actually believe that. It’s red meat for the NST base is all. Nobody with half an ounce of baseball sense thinks the O’s would be better off if they spent on a bunch of high-priced free agents this year rather than do what they’ve done, which is continue to add depth and fill holes that were left gaping by nine years of bad decisions.
If they had just “stood pat”, so to speak, then I’d be right there with Drew. But the Pie and Hill trades, the Markakis extension, the Uehara signing, and the fact that they have so many pitchers competing for spots have me feeling pretty good about the spring.
I think what you said there, Andrew, is pretty much right on. It’s about the next ten years, not the last ten.
I’m sitting here DOING LINEUP MATH:
40-Man pitchers:
Orioles SP #1 Guthrie
Orioles SP #2 Hill*
Orioles SP #3 Uehara
Orioles SP #4 Hendrickson*
Orioles SP #5 Pauley
Orioles LR Penn
Orioles MR Baez
Orioles MR Sarfate
Orioles SU Walker*
Orioles SU Johnson
Orioles CL Ray
Orioles CL Sherrill*
Tides SP #1 Bergesen
Tides SP #2 Berken (non 40-man)
Tides SP #3 Waters*
Tides SP #4 Albers
Tides SP #5 Liz
Tides RP Hernandez
Tides RP Hoey
Tides RP McCrory
Tides RP Mickolio
Tides RP Perez
Baysox SP #1 Tillman (non 40-man)
Baysox SP #2 Arrieta (non 40-man)
Baysox SP #3 Patton
Baysox SP #4 Spoone
Baysox SP #5 Beato (non 40-man)
Keys SP #1 Matusz
Out
SP Hennessey
SP Miller
SP Bass
SP Simon
1) Would the Orioles simply go with an 8-man bullpen/3-man bench to include Hennessey? Or to add Looper?
2) Do you think that we would cut Walker and/or Baez to add two of Miller, Bass or Simon? Cutting Walker would only leave us with one LHP in the bullpen, mind you.
BTW, lots of depth. Crazy times.
Wow nice work, Greg. What are the asterisked players, BTW?
Completely forgot about Miller. He was decent in a few appearances right at the end of last season. Also forgot about Hoey. Wonder if he comes back healthy this season. DEPTH, man. Imagine that. You really think Hernandez will go to the bullpen for the Tides? He probably does project as a reliever in the bigs, though.
Less than 2 weeks!!!!!
There are only two ways, as I see it, that Hendrickson finds his way into the rotation.
1. He blows up in the spring and flat-out earns a spot. This can also be said for the other 8-10 candidates.
2. He doesn’t embarrass himself and nobody else steps up.
Scenario number two worries me. I believe Hendrickson is here as the long man, so for him to find a spot in the rotation because nobody else beat him out would be a bad way to start the year. I’m really hoping that doesn’t happen.
Pauley making the rotation wouldn’t surprise me, but I think Penn has the edge going in. I think that comes from having been here before, even if he didn’t have much success. It will all come down to performance, of course.
I don’t see Hernandez as a bullpen pitcher. I’m sort of staking out a position as a fan of that guy, and I’m not sure I can fully explain why. I just like what I’ve read and I like his numbers. I think he projects as a solid #4 in the majors, and I think he’ll probably find that spot in Baltimore next year.
Great breakdown, Greg.
Asterisks are LHPs, of course.
People are saying that David Hernandez projects as a reliever. If there is a roster crunch because of all the pitchers, there’s a very real chance he could get plugged in to the long relief spot until someone gets bumped up to the big show.
@Greg – Ah, gotcha.
I love that we have several tiers of young pitching.
Tier 1: Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta
Tier 1A: Patton
Tier 2: Bergensen, Hernandez, Berken
Tier 3: Spoone, Erbe, Beato
And these are all guys that don’t project to be with us on Opening Day. Impressive.
Just flipped to the Caribbean World Series and wow, those uniforms are disastrous. It’s one thing to have ads on the uniforms (a la soccer), but to plaster them all over the place is just ridiculous. I mean, the name on the back above the numbers for Mexico is “Corona”. For every player.
Do you have a link, Greg, on Hernandez? I know he’s struggled a bit with his walks/command, but my aggregate sense is that he projects as a starter. Not a top-rotation starter, but not a reliever either. And, in fact, if he has some issues with control I’d think relief is the last place you’d want him unless it’s as a long man, and I think his raw talent is better than that.
I don’t have a link, but I read Hernandez projected as a reliever, too, Neal. I’m interested in seeing what he does this year at Norfolk (I assume?) after such a successful year at Bowie…although I feel like he was beating weak hitters with a good fastball and mediocre other stuff. But that’s just me, based on a combination of things I’ve read and that one time I saw him.
You think those are disasterous unis? Maybe you should check out Blagovecich night or Montreal throwback night in hockey…yeesh.
“David Hernandez – RHP
Age HT WT
23 6-3 215
2008 Team: Bowie (AA)
Drafted: 2005, 16th round
Projected Role: Power reliever/closer
Notes – This 23-year old right-hander put up an outstanding season at Bowie (AA), leading the Eastern League in strikeouts (166), and coming in 4th in ERA (2.68) while holding batters to a .217 batting average. His fastball tarts off in the 92-94 MPH range and can touch 95-96 MPH on occasion. He’ll settle into the 90-93 MPH range, but his velocity will fall a bit in the 6th and 7th inning occasionally, especially when his pitch count gets high. Throws a two seamer that can go as low as 89 MPH but he can get some good run with pitch. Pitches up in the zone with his fastball a good bit, but gets swings and misses due to his ability to hide the ball well in his deceptive delivery. Was an extreme flyball pitcher through the first two months of the season (21% in April and 32% groundball outs in May) but then made some adjustments and was able to get more groundball outs and by August he was at a 49% groundball outs on batted balls. His breaking ball is a slurvy pitch that some scouts believe is a power curveball and some call a slider. He normally throws it in the 78-79 MPH range but can run it up to 82 MPH. He keeps his breaking ball down in the zone and when he misses, it’s usually outside and down to the right-handed hitter. He’s able to get some good late tilt and it can be a plus pitch at times. Command can be an issue with the pitch as he was unable to consistently find the strike zone with the pitch, but it can be a swing and miss pitch. Throws a 83-84 MPH changeup that doesn’t have much drop or fade and mainly floats up to the plate. He doesn’t appear comfortable throwing the pitch as an effective part of his repertoire and he doesn’t have effective command of the pitch. Has struggled at times over his career pitching from the stretch, but he made great strides last year working with pitching coach Mike Griffin holding runner to a .202 average with runners on and .161 with runners in scoring position. Hernandez is a hard worker but can get rattled at times on the mound and had several run ins with umpires. The one thing no one can take away from Hernandez is the fact that he misses bats with his fastball and slider and he put up some eye opening numbers in Double-A. He needs to work on the consistency of his off speed offerings, develop a consistent changeup, and drop his pitch counts if he hopes to be a starter in the major leagues. With his ability to miss bats with his fastball and slider, Hernandez has the weapons to be a solid back end of the bullpen guy. If he’s able to continue to improve the consistency of his off speed pitches, command, and limit his pitch counts, he may be able to find a niche at the end of a rotation.”
This is the OH scouting report. I think it’s private content, so heres to hoping I don’t get my membership revoked.
Ty Wiggington, wut wut?!?!?!
Who do we get rid of now? Scott or Huff?
Very, very interesting. Now we have this situation:
Aubrey Huff: 1B, DH, Backup 3B
Luke Scott: DH, Backup LF
Ty Wigginton: 1B, DH, Backup IF except SS
Ryan Freel: Backup OF, Backup IF except SS
Chris Gomez: Backup IF
At first, you figure Gomez is the first to get cut, but he’s the only guy that would be able to play SS on the team other than Izturis. Freel would be the next guy you figure gets traded or something, but he’s such a DT/MacPhail guy that that doesn’t seem likely.
So unless Freel can get by at SS, Luke or Huff get traded? Who knows.. this is mystifying, but as always, depth ain’t a bad thing.
Here’s my best guess:
4 man bench, nobody gets traded, platoon Scott and Wiggington at DH. That would be a monster frankenhitter. We already know Scott can’t hit lefties, well, guess who mashes lefties!
I can’t imagine Luuuuke is happy about this.
Backup C, Wigginton, Freel, Gomez? Yeah, that could work for sure.
I love this move. One of the many things it does is solve the 3B issue for 2010, which is critical. And don’t look now, but we suddenly have a pretty legit bench. I would think they’re seriously looking to trade Scott at this point, but keeping a four-man bench would not be bad at all.
Roch pointed something out that I think I knew, but didn’t fully realize: All 6 of last year’s shortstops – Hernandez, Bynum, Fahey, Castro, Cintron, and Torres – are no longer in the organization. It’s kind of refreshing to clear house of those guys, even though I liked some of them. No we’re looking at names like Izturis, Murphy, Gomez, and Blake Davis. That’s more like it.
typo: *Now we’re looking at names..
I CANNOT WAIT for baseball to start! It is so exciting just reading MLBtraderumors and seeing so many commenters act impressed by the Os offseason moves.
BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL BASEBALL…BASEBALL!!!
Concur.
Signing Wigginton could imply that a signing for a pitcher is on the horizon; giving the FO enough confidence to start with a 4 man bench and a 7 man bullpen. Looper?
here’s hoping we bring Looper aboard. . .
MacPhail’s being doing an awesome job.
@Greg – Are you the Greg that posted that in Roch’s blog also? I agree with this.
There’s some concern with not getting the kids the playing time they deserve with bringing in Wigginton and Looper, if they get him. Guys like Montanez, Reimold, and some of the pitchers would not have much of a chance, but it’s hard to complain too much when a)Wigginton is a proven major leaguer and is good deadline trade bait and b)guys like Uehara, Hill, and Looper are pretty good bets to get injured/be ineffective at some point in the season.
Thanks for posting/breaking down the Wigginton move. Busy day today but I’ll check in later on with a main post.
@dan the man – What kids? What kids aren’t getting “the playing time they deserve with bringing in Wiggington and [potentially] Looper”?
You give me a list of players getting blocked, and I’ll rip it to shreds. It’ll be fun.
Reimold: should be at Norfolk
Montanez: not a prospect. I’m not hating on him, but he’s 27 and had one good year in AA when he was way older than everyone else.
Liz, Penn, Albers, Hennessey, Hill, etc: their prospect status has gone down substantially, and besides, the rotation will have at least 2 spots in it for these guys to fight over
Patton: Our only real pitching prospect with any kind of chance of being blocked, I guess, should spend some time recovering in Norfolk or Bowie.
No one is getting blocked by Wigginton, as there are pretty much no infield prospects who are even close to ready. We are in an interesting position though with Liz and Penn in particular. (Patton should def hang out in the minors this season unless he blows everyone away in spring training.)
Everyone agrees that Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, and perhaps Spoone (with Patton as the wild card) are the legit arms of the future, so if Liz and Penn do not get their shot this year, they will probably never get it. Bringing Looper in would likely block at least one of them. So the argument about “blocking the kids” could be made here, if you still believe Liz and Penn have a future with this team. But in the end, they still have to earn their way into the rotation; they should not simply be given a spot. Twill be a very interesting spring training…
@sci – Just be careful, here. Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz are not locks. There is no certainty that they arrive in Baltimore and are successful in Baltimore. They are all very talented, yes, but all of them have the chance to become a big bust.
Of course you’re right about that, and in no way am I saying they are locks. I guess I’m just arguing for us NOT to sign someone like Looper this year, so that we can see what we have with Penn and Liz (and others) once and for all. Looper would be blocking part of that experiment. If we get to the end of this year and not one of these “tier 2″ pitchers has stepped up, then at least we’ll know where we stand and can permanently write them off. As it is, we’ve got a crapload of OK pitching prospects we have no idea about.
@dan the man – Actually, I’m not, but that’s kinda funny.
I think it’s good that MacPhail has aligned the system to reflect that the road to the MLB in the Baltimore farm system goes through Norfolk. This is why Wieters, Reimold, Montanez, Bergesen, Berken, Tillman, and Hernandez are all in Norfolk this year and not getting cups of coffee right out of Bowie. Norfolk should, from now on, be a pretty good team since we will be stockpiling our real talent there.
@Andrew in Rochester – Yeah, basically I’m saying what sci is saying. I realize Wigginton isn’t really blocking anyone, and that the “kids” I was talking about aren’t exactly top prospects. But that is why I played devil’s advocate against myself in the same post. I’m merely thinking out loud. I personally dig the Wigginton signing, and I’d be ok with a Looper signing as long as it’s nothing big that we can’t throw out the window if he sucks.
What’s going on with Sherrill? is anybody concerned about his contract issues?
@ryan97ou – Actually, yes, I am. I’m quietly hoping it gets resolved out of the arbitration room, because that’s not a good ending for anyone.
Neal: Take your time, there’s no rush.
Dan: I’m a little worried we say “let the kids play” and then everyone gets mad in September when the kids are exhausted and not playing well to boot. Again. Like last year.
@Andrew in Rochester – I’m really not saying “let the kids play” as much as I’m just musing about the stacked roster and a couple of guys who just might not get their shot after having good seasons. But that’s fine, it’s not like we’re talking about Matt Wieters here, and our offense is going to be very good. I agree with the line of thinking that we can’t just throw 4 AAA or AA guys to the wolves in the rotation and call it “rebuilding”. That’s not good for your bullpen or for the Brian Robertses and Nick Markakises who don’t deserve to have to endure watching guys like Radhames Liz and Brian Burres pitch back to back days.
@dan the man – My point is more nobody except our lord and savior Matt Wieters had a good year last and deserves a shot in Baltimore this year. Reimold, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Hernandez, and Bergesen are all not yet ready. Burres, Patton, and Liz had bad years last year. Chris Waters is this weird guy stuck in the middle of everything, but it should be noted that he is getting a good, long look in Spring Training, and also is not a prospect.
I’m fairly certain MacPhail is the kind of guy who will find a way to settle with Sherrill before arbitration. If he doesn’t, though, it won’t be a killer. I love ‘Ol FlatBrim but he’s not a “core” player. We could probably afford the hearing with him in a way we couldn’t have with a player like Markakis.