Orioles In the News, At the Angels
Just got finished reading a mildly interesting article in Forbes that blames the Orioles‘ attendance woes on the arrival of the Nats. Aside from the analysis here tending towards the overly simple, I’m astounded that the author (Tom Van Riper) actually gets the name of the Nationals’ owners wrong. It’s the Lerner family, Tom. Not “Werner”.
Beyond that, it seems to me that any kind of real analysis of attendance issues with either team is impossible until one of them gets good. If the O’s are in contention next year in August and are still only drawing 15-20 thousand per game, then maybe we’ll have something.
Somewhat related, here’s a long and absorbing piece on Peter Angelos, courtesy of the Daily Record. Some interesting nuggets in there, particularly Angelos’ assertion that he’d “insist [people] refer to me as a competent lawyer first. The Orioles are strictly secondary. Or maybe third or fourth.”
No doubt one of the whiners will grab that statement and complain that he’s not giving the team enough focus. This will be the same person who previously insisted that he had ruined them by meddling.
Meanwhile the black-and-orange are headed to California and a date with the Angels. It’ll be Jeremy Guthrie and John Lackey tonight in the first game of a seven-game west coast swing.
(photo via — you have to check out more of this fella’s work)
It’s nice to see an investment such as the Orioles are 2nd, 3rd, or 4th on your radar.
DOUCHE!
I don’t know, man, I kinda like it. I’ve said for awhile now that Angelos isn’t the devil some folks make him out to be, and I’m glad to hear that he’s not obsessing over the team every day. That means that MacPhail is running the team and doesn’t have to look over his shoulder all the time. Isn’t that what we’ve all been asking for?
In other news, a top-notch Cuban prospect has defected. I wonder what the odds are that the O’s will be in the mix on him. You know the Yanks and Sox will go into hot pursuit, and probably so will the Angels and Dodgers. It seems to me that pretty much any team could use a 21-year old lefty who throws 100 mph. Unless he’s Daniel Cabrera 2.0 — that’s always a possibility.
I feel like the real, unbiased story of Peter Angelos would be an immensely compelling read if someone could go into it with a completely open mind…it’s felt in various parts like a tragedy, comedy of errors, rise and fall story, and who knows what else.
Of course, the tragedy has mostly been felt by the sports fans, so that open mind thing might be hard to pull off. And saying things like this:
Which is almost obnoxiously wrong.
Anyway, I’d like to think that, like a certain owner to the North of you all (South of me), there is still enough time for the story to end with Angelos as a winning, redeemed hero. That’s probably mostly my want, and not my think, but time will tell.
Anyway, it’s all just talk. The past is the past, and we like where the Orioles are right now, don’t we? Baltimore on the road jerseys, a competent untethered GM with a reasonable plan, a top ten farm system, a RSN that gets better every year, some creative PR works (2110 Eutaw Street is wonderful). There’s a lot to like.
There will be more if we can split this series with the Angels.
Some stats to chew on over the next few games:
- The O’s have the 5th best batting average in baseball (fourth best in the AL) at .272
- They only rank 14th in baseball in both HR (10th in AL) and RBI (also 10th in AL)
- Their team ERA of 5.00 is next-to-last in the AL and third-to-last in all of MLB
- Team WHIP is 1.47 — fourth-to-last in MLB, second-to-last in AL
Question is: are you surprised by any of that, or is it about what you expected?
And consequently, they are 15th in Runs Scored (10th in the AL), although at 365 they are closer to 10th than 16th. They are 28th in Runs Allowed at 418 (13th in the AL) and are closer to dead last than 27th.
Am I surprised? Not really. If anything, I figured the offense would not be that good.
@Andrew – When a paper like the Daily Record covers Angelos it’s coming from a much better perspective than you’ll get from most other sources. That’s a legal industry publication, and Angelos has been a lawyer a lot longer than he’s been a baseball owner.
I think the piece was pretty fair, but I agree with you that some of the quotes were pretty uninformed. Not the reporter’s fault at all, though — it just reflects what’s being said.
That said, I don’t agree about the DuPuy quote you cited. Do you really think a team owner shouldn’t be involved in key decisions? I think I know what you’re getting at — that baseball people should make baseball decisions — but every owner is “involved in key decisions,” not just Angelos. I think the question is one of scope, not necessarily process.
@neal s – I guess it depends on your definition of “key decisions”. To me, the owner should have a lot to say about things like the total budget and who is in upper management.
But it’s when you start to get into the things Angelos did, which is sticking his head into who the manager shouldn’t be (which is not the same thing as who it should be), and who should and should not be traded that you start to lose that definition and just get into “Angelos is involved in key decisions and also decisions way beyond his scope”.
By the way, these Angels’ announcers are just terrific in the Worst Possible Way. I could listen to these homers for days before I went on a homicidal post office rampage.
I think what the numbers say overall is that this is a team with a fair amount of talent and potential, but which is still finding its way. Add it up and you’ve got a team that’s far from depressing but which is, alas, eight games below .500 entering play tonight.
@Andrew – No doubt, Angelos overstepped in the past. I think I agree with you on how to define “key decisions,” and I think what we’re seeing these days is that Angelos might finally also agree.
@neal s – At least they are neither overachieving nor underachieving. I’m not sure which is worse: to be the Marlins and know you aren’t as good as your record indicates, or to be Pittsburgh and know you’re better than it appears.
But I’m pretty confident I can be happy with playing at your basic skill level (as relates to your schedule, anyway).
This is WONDERFUL. Behold the Angels subtle digs at the opponent while not-so-subtly declaring the Angels The Best Team Ever:
On Guthrie: “He’s a speed watcher. He’ll peek up at the radar readings and he’ll get in trouble for overthrowing.”
On Juan Rivera: “He’s so strong. He’s just so strong.”
On Reimold getting a not-so-borderline call against Lackey: “Com’on! You gotta give that call to the veteran!”
On Guthrie 1-2-3ing the Angels, done very, very quickly and quietly: “Wow. God offspeed pitch.”
Speed watcher? That’s a new one.
@Andrew – You think these guys hang out with the White Sox announcers and just brainstorm these gems?
To me it’s just like a lot of modern culture – we the media think you the viewer are stupid, so we will now proceed to accommodate the lowest common denominator. Enjoy!
And on that note, I’m going to sleep and watching the rest of the game tomorrow morning.
My provider (Comcast) has it listed for re-broadcasting at 8am, if anyone else is interested.
@Tomás – Speaking of media, you (and everyone, maybe) might be interested in a piece I wrote today about the future of journalism. I’d actually love some feedback from the group here:
click to read
/end borderline irrelevant self-promotion
I was just about to write something about how nicely Guthrie has been holding things together, and then Guthrie serves up another tater to Abreu. 5-1 Angels, just like that. Tough to stomach.
And the wheels keep falling off with a single by Hunter.
We talk a lot about the struggles of Koji and Berken and HIll, and about whether or not Bergesen can keep up his performance. The thing is, though, that Guthrie has not been a whole lot better. I’m quite worried about what he’s got to offer going forward. I like him quite a bit, but games like this make it hard.
So… basically we went from having one good pitcher in Koji in the beginning of the year, to like 4 good pitchers at the beginning of the Hill, Bergesen, Berken era, and now we’re back down to just one good pitcher with Bergesen.
What does this team have to do to have even a middle-of-the-road starting rotation? It’s really disheartening. I also partially blame Wieters for calling an 0-2 inside fastball to Abreu. Ehm…. what?
Andrew, I just saw this in an OH thread.. Markakis and Jones have a combined 4.2 WARP. That sounds bad, what does it mean?
It sucks when you know a game is over in the fifth inning. Just listening to this one on the radio, I could feel the loss when Guthrie gave up that second homer.
I don’t read too much into this one, though. Long trip to the left coast, very solid pitcher on the mound, facing a team that’s good in general. It’s like that sometimes.
No doubt. But damnit, our top 4 in the lineup are a combined 1-for-fucking-16 in this game with 5 strikeouts. Lackey is good, but he has a 4.70 ERA. He clearly isn’t unhittable. It’s like… someone throw down a bunt or lean into a pitch or do SOMEthing.
@dan the man – Baseball Prospectus’ Wins Above Replacement Player, one of the more made fun of advanced sabermetrics, is actually one of the best (coincidence? I think not! Baseball writers hate the new wave of mathematical thinking and the geeks who are actively trying to destroy baseball behind it!). There are a couple of things going on with WARP that needs to be taken in:
1) A replacement level player is you’re average Joe AAA who costs the major league minimum (that is, this is a stat based on value per dollar spent) and is horrible at major league quality baseball. The 1962 Mets were better than replacement.
2) WARP takes into account hitting, fielding, and pitching based on runs (as opposed to hits or total bases…but of course runs above replacement is built on those things) and the idea that 10 runs is approximately equal to one win.
3) For a quick benchmark on WARP, 10 is MVP-esque, 0 is obviously very bad, average is 4ish. But that is over the course of a season.
4) You’ve probably vaguely heard of VORP, too (Value Over Replacement Player) which doesn’t take defense into effect (defense has been the real imp of the sabermetrics community, to the point where Dave Cameron is probably overcompensating by saying Nyjer Morgan is just as valuable as Adam Dunn) and doesn’t turn runs into wins. Just so you know.
Looking at the WARP1 leaderboard (WARP2 and 3 are for looking at players across years and so on): Pujols is at 6.7 (Dan Haren is leading baseball at 7.8…wow). Adam Jones is at a team leading 3.6, which is pretty good as that would be on pace for a very good 7.2. The problem is Markakis, sitting low at 0.6. Ouch.
For an idea of what Jones’ 3.6 means, here’s some other guys at 3.6 without comment:
K-Rod, Carl Crawford, Mark Buerhle
Notable Guys below Jones:
Teixeira (3.3), Youkilis (3.4), Moreanu (3.4)*, Jason Bay (3.4)
Oh, and this one makes me smile:
Bergesen has a 3.0, matching CC Sabathia.
*That’s not really fair because the centerfield defense is always more important than first base defense, but still, that’s fun, right?
@Andrew – Bizarre.
@dan the man – All absolutely true. I give weight to the travel, though. I’ve made maybe 5-6 trips to California and they are brutal. It doesn’t seem like much, but that five-ish hour plane ride and the time difference that goes with it can screw you up at first. That’s gotta go double for a baseball player who’s doing it without a day off beforehand.
It makes me wonder about the Orioles’ average RPoWCTWDO (Relative Performance on West Coast Trip Without Day Off)…
I kid, Andrew, I kid.
Yeah there’s no question. But it’s things like this that bug me about the Orioles.
1)Can’t find ways to win against a pitcher having a good night.
2)Can’t hit lefty starters or rookie pitchers.
3)Can’t win on Sundays or day games or final games of the series.
4)Can’t win after a long plane ride.
At some point, there’s no room for these excuses. We have to develop some kind of winning attitude. We look great when we’re making comebacks and hitting well. Other times, Roberts, Jones, and Markakis AKA The Core, look kinda listless. All three of them are playing worse defense and striking out more and stealing less bases.
This season is supposed to be about improvement and the only thing improving is Brad Bergesen. That’s it. Jones has improved, but he’s got a pretty hollow .300 BA and 44 RBI. Was it the right decision for him to bulk up in the off season? Reimold has been a nice surprise. Wieters has disappointed so far with his bat, glove, arm, and game-calling. The expectations were clearly too high but nobody could help it. DT has disappointed with some decision making and a lack of accountability on fundamentals, although that’s ultimately up to the players.
I’m a bi-polar O’s fan and I’m ranting, but that’s sort of a product of stunning comeback wins followed by clunkers. I just want to see some consistency. But now our schedule is ridiculously difficult and our rotation is bad once again.
BUH.
@dan the man – But isn’t all of that the very definition of a rebuilding team stocked with a mix of young talent and veteran role players?
The way I see it (more accurately, the way I choose to see it) is that these ups and downs are part of the growth process. The team is showing signs of life and doing great things now and then, but there will still be stretches where they can’t seem to get out of their own way.
We have to be here in order to get where we’re going, and it kind of sucks sometimes. BUT, it’s better than being where we were, which was going nowhere.
If that even makes sense. I’m off to sleep on it.
Yeah, and I suppose it’s worth mentioning that those ups and downs can be entire seasons. They not only have to get better at playing individually, but also as a team, and that can take a few years. Then they have all one day realize, “Hey, we have all the pieces, shit what are we waiting for? Let’s do this!” I feel like right now, everyone’s sort of waiting for the next few pieces to arrive, for Wieters to get his footing and then hopefully they realize they can compete if they bear down and focus.
Changing the subject real quick, if you guys haven’t checked out some of Lou Gehrig’s recently released letters back and forth between he and his doctor, go to ESPN and check it out, especially some of the “last days” ones. Pretty powerful stuff. Brave and positive until the end. Qualities not just anyone can exhibit in the face of a terminal disease.
@neal s – I’m not saying Angelos needs to be there for every move. I love the fact he’s letting Andy do his job. My whole thing with it is if it’s not his top priority, does he care?
@Kevin – Does it matter if Angelos cares or not?
Okay, that’s a dumb question, but let me put it better: Does it matter where his priorities are so long as he’s put smart people in charge and is devoting his financial resources to the cause?
Let’s face it, the ideal owner is the one who does only two things: he’s puts the best possible people in charge of each branch of the organization, and he gives them ample funding to accomplish whatever they want.
Anything after that is either meddling or being a loudmouth douchebag (we’ll call it Steinbrenner-Henry Syndrome). Anything less than that is being a horrible owner (Jeff Loria, anyone?).
@neal s – Nice piece all around. I think there are other factors at play, like the modern fallacy that ANYONE can be completely objective and that yellow journalism at the last turn of the century was some sort of anomaly instead of the standard, but you’re right in that a good chunk of it’s that modern papers fail to realize that individuals retain credibility far better than institutions.
Did you (or anyone else for that matter) catch The Daily Show segment on June 10th where for reasons unknown The New York Times let Jason Jones in to do a segment? It’s as funny as it is devastatingly scathing.
There’s a good summary of Brad Bergesen’s career and a good comparison to the underrated Nick Blackburn over on John Sickels’ blog. He has the very smart, well-rounded approach basically saying Bergesen is good and should stick around for a while, but is he this good?
This comes after Fangraphs – quickly becoming THE place to read good baseball analysis – talked about how impressive Bergesen’s sinker is and that he should be a great back-end starter for a long while.
Worth mentioning: Bergesen’s .269 BABiP is pretty lucky, though his FIP is only half a run worse than his ERA.