Orioles Lukewarm Stove Roundup
Looks like the Brian Roberts for Gavin Floyd rumor is nothing more than that — rumor. And, apparently, a pretty stale one.
According to this Hot Stove digest at MLB.com:
A rumor that has spread like wildfire — Gavin Floyd for Brian Roberts — was doused by the Daily Herald, which reported that White Sox general manager Ken Williams hasn’t even spoken to anyone with the Orioles since November.
There’s some more info available at the Chicago Tribune — including an absolutely bizarre statement that “The Orioles also are looking for outfield help.”
Umm…what?
In other news, the O’s appear to remain in the running to land one (or both) of the Japanese starters on the market. No real good links for that, just a compilation of what I’ve been reading for the past couple of weeks. I’d put the chances at somewhere around 50-50. It’s an educated guess.
Beyond that, things are moving very slowly. Not just with the Orioles, but with baseball free agency in general. The ripple effect that was predicted after the Mark Teixeira domino fell simply hasn’t materialized. Even decent second-tier guys like Lowe and Dunn remain “in negotiations,” perhaps as a result of widespread hesitancy to meet their salary demands.
Andy MacPhail has roughly six weeks to dig up anywhere from 2-4 veteran arms. That’s plenty of time for sure, but it’s going to pass faster than any of us think. I have to confess that I’m starting to sweat this a little bit.
saw clips of the two Japanese league pitchers and they look pretty good, albeit against that competition and the fact that the videos were highlight clips. . .nonetheless, as stopgap guys to help eat innings and keep the game close until our decent bullpen can step in, they seem okay.
I’m completely at a loss trying to see where MacPhail is going with this team. I’m a pretty big MacPhail supporter too. If you think the starting pitching is a mess, wait till next year when all we’ll have in the infield is Cesar Izturis.
You bring up a good point Greg – the infield is a major problem. We’ve kind of glossed over that with all this (justifiable) concern about the pitching for this season. If Roberts goes, we have an aging Mora at third (with maybe Rowell in the minors behind him, if you still believe in Rowell), Izturis with nothing behind him, no 2B to speak of, and someone like Huff at 1B. The cupboard is bare. It’s really scary. Any trade we make must bring back an infielder or two at this point. We’ve drafted for pitching, which is fine, and the future is really looking pretty good there, at catcher, and in the outfield, but as far as I know there are precious few infield prospects coming up through the system.
While this is completely, depressingly true, I have to figure it will change in the next 12-13 months. It’s not like MacPhail doesn’t know that problem is coming.
Right?
@neal s – Can you really assume that MacPhail knows this? The Orioles have been completely oblivious for ten years about what they need to put a contender on the field. It’s almost like, you expect them to know, but at the same time you want to call them up and make sure.
@Greg – MacPhail is a lot of things. Stupid is either not one of them, or very, very low on his list. That he picked up Justin Turner – who is not The Answer at 2nd, but could be An Answer at 2nd – shows that he’s not oblivious.
I’m glad to see Koji Uehara picked up. I’m not at all sure what to expect from him, but it seems like the type of deal that has a lot of upside to it. Anyway, I’m certain that he’s an upgrade over Dennis Sarfate and Brian Burres as a starter.
The thing I think I like about what the Orioles are doing is that these are pitchers who should be able to slide pretty easily into the bullpen if they can’t cut the mustard. They’re certainly not shoe-horning themselves into anything.
So now the Opening Day rotation is looking like:
Guthrie
Uehara
Liz
Olson
Penn/Albers/Patton/Waters/Hendrickson/Hennessey/Bass/Simon/Baez
Which is, you know, not especially good. But Olson and Liz *should* show distinct improvement, and hopefully another pitcher can get picked up (I’m still thinking Looper). Add in the idea that the backup plans in the minors are going to be stronger than last year, and the pitching is at least going to improve somewhat. Hopefully.
Anyway, we don’t know the terms, but of course I’ve liked the idea of signing Uehara for a while now.
Yeah, that Uehara guy is pretty good.
Last year, in Japan, he got sent down to the minors at age 33.
Probably just needed a tune-up. Lots of quality major league pitchers get banished to the minors at 33.
Plus, now at 34, he’s still young enough to make an impact in the big leagues.
That’s what Derek Lowe gets for being born a year too late, I suppose.
You just keep on trollin’, Drewski.
The Uehara move is very solid. Not necessarily for what he’ll bring to the rotation — though that should help — but for what it says about the way the Orioles are doing business. They’ve opened up a new market and in order to do that I’m certain they had to make a credible pitch. It should pay dividends down the road.
@Greg – it’s a fair point, but everything has to be judged in pre-MacPhail and post-MacPhail terms. We’ve known from the day he arrived that 2010 was the target year for all of the restructuring and rebuilding to start paying off. If they finish that season and nothing has changed then…well, we can cross that bridge when it comes.
I would have like to see them take a chance on Pavano for a 1 year deal. Too bad. Looks like the Tribe got him for a cool $1.5 mil.
From everything I’ve read, Pavano is a dope. You can overlook that for a guy who performs at a high level, but for a guy with a terrible injury history who’s years removed from success, I have no problem with taking the pass.
I’d agree with Drew about Lowe (though I’d do it sans creepy mancrush), but Lowe has basically come out and said he wants to play for a contender.
That leaves us with, probably, a Looper or a Redding or Byrd.
Josh Fogg is a free agent as well, I believe. He would seem to be a potentially valuable stopgap.
Ick. I detest Josh Fogg. I’d rather have Byrd or even maybe Steve Trachsel.
What’s really strange to me is that nobody seems to be willing to really make any strong offers on Lowe. I’ve only heard the Mets being in on him at all, and they didn’t exactly give an outstanding offer out. I wonder why?
10 Million, 2 years, plus incentives to make it worth up to 16 million. That’s pretty cheap for a starter, but if he doesn’t work out in the rotation that’s rather expensive for a reliever. He’d have to really fall apart to get out of this rotation, though. I approve.
Oh, Peter Schmuck hit on a good idea – I’m alarmed I didn’t realize it earlier when I was struggling to put the pieces together. The Yankees dropped Shelley Duncan, an enormous man-child who is hideous but can really crush the ball, and we need a first baseman! How convenient!
The worry with Duncan is that he’s old for a prospect, so his AAA numbers are already a little suspect and he was not very good when he was up with the Janqs. Oh and he sucks at defense, if that matters to you.
We could certainly do worse (paging Oscar Salazar), but actually now I’m inclined to pass and find something better and with a little more upside. The odds of Shelley Duncan becoming the next Carlos Pena are slim.
Josh Fogg isn’t likely to do much, but he’s at least as good as the rest of the available options. He could realistically be a .500 pitcher here, couldn’t he?
To the broader point, I’m not surprised that the free agent season is moving so slowly. If you toss out the marquee names as the outliers they are, you get to a fundamental truth: in the present economy, it’s hard to justify a big contract for a guy who might only be marginally better than a young player you’ll control for six years.
The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, or Cubs might take that gamble, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good investment.
Given his age, Lowe represents a question mark up to and until he stops being a guy who wants 2004 money in 2009.
@neal s – two things, real quick:
1) Who cares if Josh Fogg is a .500 pitcher anywhere? That wouldn’t necessarily make him better than Radhames Liz in 2009. Wins != The Whole Story.
2) The real fundamental truth, heretofore avoided by teams like Seattle (with Silva), is that it’s hard to justify a big contract for a guy who might only be marginally better than a young player you’ll control for six years in any economy. I guess it’s easier if you don’t care about the return you’re getting on your money, and in this economy everyone cares (except the Steinbrenners)…but really you should never be spending 100 million dollars on something you can get for 2 million dollars.
True on both points, especially #2.
The thing about Fogg — or Byrd, or whoever — is that he would likely be in the rotation with Liz, not coming in to replace him. We still need at least one more veteran, preferably two. I’m not advocating for Fogg (couldn’t really care about him either way) I’m just saying he’s a legit option that hasn’t been discussed.
Woops, I posted a bunch of Uehara thoughts in the Tex thread, but this is where people were talking about it.
Breaking News: The Orioles do something. Drew Forrester against it.
Why sign Josh Fogg?
We’re not trying to win now.
We’re rebuilding.
Bring up one of the kids and let him throw.
No need to spend money on Josh Fogg. He’s not going to be here in three years when we’re a contender.