Orioles News, Analysis, and Thanks
Before anything else, I want to extend my thanks to Roch Kubatko for the shout out. That’s very, very cool.
On to some news and analysis…
The Orioles have made an offer to Brian Roberts, but aren’t close on an extension. I’d put the chances of him re-signing at less than half, but who really knows? Also mentioned in that article: no news yet on Markakis. That’s not a surprise, and I’m betting something gets done with him (even if it’s a solid one-year deal). No way they go to arbitration.
Keith Law has blogged that Koji Uehara might not do so well here in Baltimore. I think his analysis is solid. I also think it’s kind of irrelevant. Uehara is at least as promising as any of the non-Derek Lowe free agents. The fact that he comes with the added bonus of opening up the Asian market is enough to make it a solid move.
As far as pitching in general goes, here’s a thought: the Orioles might very well be done signing veterans. There could be a Redding or Looper to surprise us, but it looks like we might head into the season with Guthrie and Uehara as the only locks to make the rotation.
After that, we’re probably looking at Liz and Olson and Waters and Hendrickson as the favorites to fill it out. Sounds kind of iffy, right?
Definitely. I don’t feel good about it. But I see the logic. There are at least five guys who might make their presence felt within the next year: Hernandez, Bergesen, Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz. Feel free to add to the list if I’m overlooking someone.
My personal thought would be to sign a Lowe or a Garland (or whoever) to a two-year deal and allow those guys as much time as they need to mature. It seems, though, that MacPhail is going to hold spots open for the prospects and put them in an “if you earn a spot, it’s yours” situation.
Finally, I’ve been digging the work Wayward O has done on Teixeira. His statement that…
“there is NO MORAL COMPONENT TO FREE AGENCY!!!!! or IS there???”
…is interesting to me. I haven’t heard anyone else talking about that angle — just the usual “you would take those extra millions too!” platitudes.
Well, here’s the thing: I wouldn’t. Yes, yes, I know — “yes you would, Neal!” Listen: no I wouldn’t.
One note in the interest of fairness and full disclosure:
I’ve been on record in the past, particularly in my September post explaining why payroll and wins don’t correlate, as saying that the O’s “have to spend this offseason.”
I won’t back away from that. I meant it, and I’m disappointed that they haven’t gone out and filled more holes. All I can say is that I’m doing now what I always do: looking at the reality, filtering out the nonsense, and basing my analysis on available information.
The strategy seems to be one of deep investment in the upcoming prospects — deeper than we thought it might be. There are pros and cons to that approach, for sure.
The O’s do need to spend this winter…on Nick Markakis. If they don’t, this winter (and maybe this whole Plan) is a complete waste of time and a failure. It’s as simple as that. If Nick doesn’t sign a long term deal by Februrary, then we can all pretty much start measuring him for pinstripes on Valentine’s Day. And that is unacceptable on so many levels.
I read an interesting remark from Bill James about payrolls today implying that eventually the small amrket teams will realize that they can revolt and stop the competitive imbalance that comes with income (as opposed to payroll) imbalance. Interesting stuff, except that he wrote that in 2000 and things appear to be getting worse when you consider the obscene discounts the Yankees will get for making New Yorkers build them a new stadium. However, you can already hear teams whining and when the CBA goes up in 2011, there probably will be hell to pay.
Lastly, I suspect that before October we might see Matusz, Hernandez, and Bergesen in Baltimore, but I really doubt Tillman or Arrieta make it that far just yet.
It’s a great point, Andrew. When I say “deep investment in the upcoming prospects” I am counting Markakis, even though he’s no longer a prospect.
I was talking to a friend this evening about Nick and I said that a failure to keep him here might be the last straw for me. I can’t even fathom how much it would hurt if he doesn’t stick around.
I’d love to have a sit-down with him. Not an “interview” in traditional journalistic terms, but a real chance to pick his brain off-the-record. He is, in so many ways, the linchpin of this team. I really wonder how he feels about that, and what his plans are.
That said, not signing him long-term this offseason is OK as long as they don’t go to arbitration. If they do go to arbitration it will be very, very bad.
Has anyone else seen this?
It’s hysterical!
That Wayward O rundown of last season is awesome. Props to you, O, if you’re out there.
We can all agree on the Markakis thing. It’s the only thing that matters this offseason. Without him, the plan is almost completely dead. And it’s impossible to tell what’s in the guy’s mind. Obviously, he wants more money. Can’t argue there. But is he just holding out because he can, or is he another ballplayer in the vein of Tex? Does he care at all about being THE guy on the Baltimore Orioles, or is he just biding his time? He’s a quiet guy at least through the media, so it’s hard to get a gauge on whether or not he gives a shit about orange and black. We can only hope that the prospect of earning multi-millions RIGHT NOW beats going to arbitration and getting a couple million until free agency. Let’s just say I’m glad the dude just had his first kid, but let’s hope his wife isn’t the money-grubber that Tex’s was.
On the issue of the Yankees vs. smaller market teams, we can take some small amount of solace in this fact: the Yankees are really the only team to monopolize the market this year. It’s so jarring because they haven’t done it to this extent in a little while, but this year, even the Sox are settling for cheaper options like Baldelli, Smoltz, Penny, etc. and getting their bigger name players (Ortiz, Bay) through trades. Yes, they made their presence known with Dice-K, Manny, etc., but if we focus on this year, no teams have made a huge splash other than the Yanks. In fact, they have spent $423 million on free agents this offseason while all the rest of baseball combined have spent half that amount. There are teams that can throw their weight around, but no teams are willing to match New York’s disgusting willingness to buy players, which is a very good thing. It singles the Yankees out and makes their monopolizing ways more noticeable. Let’s hope it’s a step.
You say extra millions like he made a sacrifice to join the Yankees. He picked the team that has been the best franchise over the last ten years. Who cares about playing at home. It’s not like high school baseball has a cult following in Baltimore anyway.
@Tim T – Oh, when did he sign with the Red Sox? I thought he signed with the team that has spent the most in the last ten years, not the team that has been the best franchise in the last ten years.
I think the Orioles should sign Gregg Zaun, Ty Wigginton, and Braden Looper and then of course do something with Nick and Brian and call it a winter. The upgrades would be obvious where they exist (the rotation, as sad as it looks right now, is still distinctly better than the 2008 incarnation, and shortstop and catcher are big upgrades), and I would guess that that hypothetical team wouldn’t totally embarrass itself (I’d put a reasonable guess at around 75 wins or so…a ton of things would have to break right for them to get any higher than that).
Ty Wigginton is a little expensive. I still say you play Salazar there and invite a couple of guys to challenge him in spring training. You probably can’t just hand him the job. I see no sense in the Sexson thing unless it’s purely an invite. If only Montanez played a position that made more sense for the O’s, or if Luke Scott could play 1B.
What the Orioles need to be doing, especially in the infield, is finding guys with upside that have a good or better chance of sticking longterm. Salazar is not one of these guys. He’s a career minor leaguer who is an extreme long shot to turn into anything besides Crash Davis. Sexson and Millar are also guys with almost no upside to them, and signing one of them is basically saying “We can’t find anything this year…maybe next year we’ll find something”
If you’re not into Wigginton, that’s cool, I’ll throw out probably a better name as far as upside is concerned: Billy Butler. Young, punished AAA, hasn’t produced at the big league level yet but most likely will, and he’s losing his job in Kansas City.
MacPhail needs to start at least considering trading pitching prospects for infield prospects (like Butler). We have many pitching prospects. We have almost no infield prospects.
Aside from the few untouchables of course (there are only three in my opinion – Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman). All other pitching prospects should be fair game at this point if you can get a good, legit infield prospect.
@Andrew in Rochester – That’s a really “no duh” comment from you. Of course Salazar isn’t the answer, and the Orioles SHOULD be looking for a long term answer at 1B. Who is that person? We should obviously be signing him right away. Wait, what’s that? There aren’t any cheap young power hitting first basemen in free agency right now? Oh, that’s a shame. There’s always Eric Hinske and Hank Blalock! I’d rather have Salazar there.
@Greg – I was simply making the point that Wigginton and Butler are both considerably better options than Salazar from a rebuilding point of view. So I disagree with your estimate that there’s nothing out there and we’re best off with Salazar. I will agree that Salazar is a better option than Millar or Sexson, though. No doubt about it.
Ok. I want to try this football guessing game again, since I was shut down last week so very thoroughly. I’m picking:
Ravens over Titans
Steelers over Chargers
Eagles over Giants
Panthers over Cardinals
Is there anybody who doesn’t want to see Ravens-Steelers in the AFC Championship? What a title bout that would be!
OK, I’ll even pick scores too.
Titans 17 – Ravens 13 (Sorry guys. I’ll be happy to let you rub it in my face if the Ravens win. I just feel it. There’s too much general confidence in the Ravens to win this thing.)
Steelers 24 – Chargers 20
Giants 30 – Eagles 24
Panthers 38 – Cardinals 28
Raven 12 (no touchdowns), Titans 7. Just because.
I see no feasible way the Titans score more than 13 points on the Ravens, when nobody else could do it all season long and the defense is clicking so well. I also see little standing between the Ravens and scoring more than 13 points. True, the offense didn’t have a particularly great game on Sunday, but they still managed to basically blow out Miami.
You got it switched. Ravens 17-13
Ravens. Steelers. Giants. Panthers.
I am extremely concerned about this game because picking the Ravens now seems to be the popular pick. Ask Atlanta how that worked out for them. I’m also salivating at the idea of a Ravens-Steelers AFC championship game. Only problem is too many players would be hurt/emotionally drained to play the superbowl in 2 weeks.
Chris Gomez is baaaaaaaaaaack after we dumped him for nothing a few years back. Yay? The bench is looking…well..it’s looking like this:
Salazar
Freel
Gomez
Montanez
That could be a lot worse, but really I only have faith in two of those guys.
Ahh, Chris Gomez. The best Randy Travis lookalike in baseball.
In other news, Jon Heyman thinks it’s down to the O’s and Mets for Tim Redding. Which basically means that the two teams he absolutely won’t be signing with are the O’s and Mets.
The Tim Redding ship sailed for me the minute I heard the name Uehara. If we spend our winter buying Hendrickson, Uehara, and Redding I’m wondering “why?”. Yes, yes, we don’t want to see Dennis Sarfate and Chris Waters again, but I think the depth provided by these other guys covers that. At this point I want to see a guy who could not only not embarrass himself but also potentially thrive in Baltimore. I don’t have a problem with Uehara or Hendrickson, per se, but they’re stopgaps: we’d be thrilled if they throw up league average numbers and don’t get hurt, but to expect anything more from them is probably folly. Redding would be just a third guy like that, probably cementing the Orioles into a “solid” 75 win, fifth place team with another top ten pick in 2010.
I do love Chris Gomez. Now, can we get Reboulet back?
Andrew, I completely agree about Redding. The guy struggled for the Nats and they didn’t want him back. He will be average at best (and that’s being very optimistic) in the AL East. There’s no reason to take up another roster spot with him, given the foregone last place finish in 2009.
@Andrew in Rochester – You need a catcher.
Moeller/Zaun (before and after Wieters)
Gomez (backs up SS, 2B)
Freel (backs up LF, CF, 2B)
Salazar (backs up 1B, 3B)
Gomez makes Donnie Murphy unnecessary, Freel makes Montanez/Reimold unnecessary. Salazar makes the bench unless they decide to start him.
The addition of Gomez might have something to do with the status of Brian Roberts, but that’s pure speculation.
@Greg – I like having an infielder, an outfielder, a catcher, and one other guy on my bench. I completely forgot that the Orioles don’t actually have any catchers on the roster right now (oops!), so we’re probably looking at:
Montanez (outfielder)
Gomez or Salazar (prolly Gomez for infielder)
Freel (can play anywhere)
catcher
Whoops. Although, really right now Salazar is the starting first baseman or Montanez is the starting left fielder, depending on where you put Huff and Scott.
I generally like to see catcher, outfielder, middle and corner infielder on my bench.
Word has it that Trembley really wants Wigginton.
Then today I learn that Tim Redding is from Rochester, NY and suddenly I think I’d be kinda cool to have him on the team. Of course he stinks, but it’d be a little cool for me.
Strangely enough, I’ve met or run into easily around 2 dozen other Oriole fans who have lived in Rochester all their lives. They got to grow up and see Ripken, Mussina, Palmer, Roberts, and all of those famous guys just down the road, so I guess there’s still a bunch of fans in waiting around. It’s very strange.
@Greg – Is Wigginton a switch-hitter? He’d certainly be better than some of the old dudes out there, and he can play 3rd, too, I think.
I’m annoyed that Salazar and Montanez and Reimold are going to get the shaft this year again. I really don’t get what the big deal is about Montanez’s defense – he would play left fucking field, land of Jeff Conine. I’m sure he’d be fine.
I was checking out the O’s depth chart on ESPN.com – It’s not up to date yet.
So I updated it with my own thoughts. I realize it’s a bit useless before things are wrapped up.
But I want to know how y’all feel about this (both my ideas and the current state of the team in general):
Huff (1B) BRob (2B) Izturis (SS) Mora (3B) Quiroz (C) Freel (DH)
Scott (LF) Jones (CF) Markakis (RF)
Reimold or Montanez (4th OF)
Rotation:
Guts, Koji, Hendrickson, Waters, Albers
Pen:
Liz, Olson, Walker, JJ, Sarfate, Miller, Ray, Sherrill
@Joe the Guy – Well, one of my many issues with your roster breakdowns is the catcher, and Schmucker says the Orioles are on the verge of signing Gregg Zaun to be the starter. So *today* it looks like:
C – Zaun
1B – Huff
2B – Roberts
SS – Izturis
3B – Mora
LF – Montanez/Reimold
CF – Jones
RF – Markakis
DH – Scott
bench: Moeller/Quiroz, Murphy/Gomez, Freel, Salazar(?)
No way Freel is a starter, much less the DH. Scott’s approach to hitting and the negligible defensive difference between him, Reimold, and Montanez suits Luuke to be the DH.
Then there’s still the problem with your pitching staff, but I can’t really work that out in my head today.