Orioles: Offseason Expectations
This is a conversation I thought perhaps wouldn’t be necessary for a few more weeks. The Orioles‘ continuing run of second-half doldrums, however, has pushed it to the front of the queue.
Andrew brought it up in the comments on the last post, and Wayward O followed up strong. So, let’s have at it: what do the O’s need to do next, i.e. in the offseason, to stem the tide and reignite faith in the overall plan and direction?
On one hand there’s the argument (advanced by Andrew and O) that they have to bring in some top-tier veteran talent to complement the youngsters. The opposite of that is that they don’t need to do anything but make a few tweaks and let these kids grow and become a winning team together.
Neither side is exactly right.
Obviously, the first option (make big moves, become winners) is the better one. If the opportunity exists to do that, then they have to. Simple as that. Except that it’s not. Let’s break down why.
The glaring need is first base. The only real option in the system — Brandon Snyder — probably won’t be ready. Finding a power hitter who could lock down that position and anchor the middle of the lineup should be Job One for Andy MacPhail and his staff.
Take a look at the list of pending free agents, however, and the air comes out of the balloon a bit. The guy we need isn’t there.
Maybe we could find that guy to fill the second big need, at third base? I wouldn’t mind getting Troy Glaus, but he’s past his prime and has been hurt. Plus the trade for Josh Bell created an option in the system. Ty Wigginton can start capably at third next year while Bell gets ready at Norfolk.
DH could be an issue but, again, who’s out there? I don’t see anyone who could be counted on hit 30 HR and drive in 120. It’s probably Luke Scott‘s job.
At every other position, we’re set. We have four outfielders, a strong 2B-SS combo, and Matt Wieters. We’ll need to find a utility guy or two, but that’s a minor concern.
Which brings us to pitching. If there’s a big move to make, it’s here. Of the five guys currently starting, one major hole — Jason Berken — is already filled by Brad Bergesen. You could argue that David Hernandez needs a bit more seasoning, so let’s call that spot an opportunity to upgrade. Brian Matusz might likewise need some time, so there’s another. I think Tillman and Bergesen deserve to stay, and I think Guthrie probably does as well. However you break it down, there’s room to bring in a veteran or two.
The names that jump out are Rich Harden, Jason Marquis, Justin Duchsherer, and Jarrod Washburn. I’d take any one of them to complement the young guys and buy the prospects some time. They’ll all be in high demand, but I have to think we could get one or two of them. That’s on the wish list.
The wild card is trades. There’s no way to predict who’s available or what the asking price will be, but we’d probably all agree that it would be worth parting with some prospects to get the right guy. If the right guy is out there.
My hunch is that this will be a busy winter. I think there will be moves. That said, MacPhail has proven that he will take a measured approach and not make a Big Move just for the sake of making it. He’s all about value. It isn’t sexy, but it works.
In other words, don’t hope for a transformative veteran to come in and radically alter the fortunes of this team. If that’s the proof you need that they’re working towards building a contender then there’s a better than even chance you’ll be disappointed.
Nice win tonight, by the way. The breaks finally went our way. Mickolio is an absolute monster and I’m digging The Boat in his new role.
Also, on Mickolio: dude is from a place called Wolf Point, Montana. It seems pretty obvious that he is now Winston Wolf.
“You sendin’ The Wolf?”
“You feel better motherfucker?”
“Shit yeah, negro, that’s all you had to say!”*
*source if you didn’t know it, which is NSFW and potentially offensive if you’re the politically correct sort.
Where does Montanez fit into next year you think? Is he moved elsewhere? Sent back down? Shifted to another position? He would seem to be the odd man out in the outfield rotation. Kind of sucks in a way, he seems to have lost out due to injury. But I always had a feeling that only either he or Reimold would end up sticking around, not both. Seems like Reimold is the guy, assuming Pie sticks and judging how he is turning on, I would think he would.
First of all, “top-tier veteran talent” in no way equals Aubrey Huff. Not saying you were saying that, Neal, but I’m not sure how the Huff trade was, in O’s words, “ill-conceived”. How? Huff was a free agent at the end of the year, with steeply declining numbers (last year’s fluke aside), a severe power drop-off, below average defense, PLUS the chance that we could always sign him again anyway, probably for cheaper. So not only do we get a nice relief prospect (we weren’t going to get anything better, and he would have accepted arbitration so forget the draft picks), but we clear the roster of a guy who is really not as productive as he seems. 13 home runs? Reimold’s got 11 in half as many at bats and Roberts has 12. Not to knock Aubrey because I love the guy and he was a good soldier for the O’s, but if we want veteran talent (which I agree that we would do well to find), we can do a lot better.
Montanez is an interesting question. If Luke wins the 1B job, Reimold could DH, Pie could play LF, and Montanez could be the extra bench outfielder.
I love The Wolf, by the way. Mickolio is the man. Easiest damn 95mph fastball I’ve ever seen. Delivery looks nice. We’ll see if he can keep it up because he did give up some runs in the minors.
As far as next year and free agency, a big bopper at the corner would be nice, and some starting pitching would be good. But I’m not going to jump ship if Andy doesn’t go out and sign Tex 2.0 when Tex 2.0 probably doesn’t want to come here. I’ll be disappointed if we don’t get some pitching, but that’s it.
Now that I’m back, I’ll go ahead and admmit that, probably like the rest of you, I’ve been watching the O’s less and less. But after the initial anger wore off after watching more losses, I’ve settled into a nice “just watch the kids play” kind of state where I’ll tune in and out. Catch some highlights. Pay more attention when Matusz and Tillman pitch. You know.
People are getting all worried that our young talent doesn’t equal a team of Evan Longorias. But we have to understand that that is the exception. I’m excited to start fresh next year after our young squad has some games under its belt. They’re tired, banged up, getting pitched to better as the league gets scouting reports. The pitchers are learning how to get the best players in the world out in the AL East and they aren’t melting down. Giving up runs, yes. Melting down, no.
The Rays didn’t suddenly start winning in the early years of Crawford, Kazmir, etc. It took time, it took tinkering, adding and subtracting pieces, finding a guy like Pena, trading for Bartlett and Garza, playing together as a team for awhile. Shields didn’t immediately become the shutdown pitcher he is now.
We’re in that part of the season where we should be half paying attention and just thinking about the kids getting experience. The offseason will be huge, for sure, but until our pitching comes around, it won’t matter if we sign 5 Teixeiras if our young pitching isn’t there yet.
@MarkH – That is a really good question. To be honest, I didn’t think about Montanez once while writing this. I see Pie as a great option for fourth outfielder, and Reimold has earned a chance to be the incumbent. Add Luuuuuuke into the mix and I don’t see any room for Lou. Maybe Andy can move him for a middle-tier prospect to a team where he’ll actually get ABs.
Glad you’re back, Dan.
To say that Hernandez needs more seasoning when actually he done better than Tillman is pretty idiotic. He’s had a few rough starts but he has 5 quality starts and 2 starts he was an out away from having 2 more. He has nothing to prove down at AAA and he’s learning real quick in the ML. I also say you better off with Matusz here also. A rotation of Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, Matusz and either a quality starter or Guthrie will start the season off in 2010 amd then maybe Arrieta replace Guthrie.
Let’s just say that if we go into next season without some sort of upgrade to the offense (either at first or third), it won’t be the worst thing in the world – especially given the meager free agent crop and high price in prospects for a trade for a guy like Gonzo – but I will be disappointed. This is, as currently constructed, a middle of the road offense which should see improvement from many key players (Markakis, Wieters, Jones, Reimold) but lacks a real slugger and also features a hole in the lineup (Izturis). I’m not sure who the O’s should be targeting, but if the Warehouse is just hoping that Brandon Snyder and Josh Bell can come up and fill in those holes…I’m not really on board with that strategy.
Nor am I in favor of Huff-esque signings.
Pitching-wise, they absolutely need somebody good. egboyz might be fine with basically keeping the roster as is, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in David Hernandez – and using his or Chris Tillman’s major league track record as some sort of proof is a bad way to prove anything. Again, I don’t know who to target, but if the rotation IS Bergesen-Guthrie-Hernandez-Matusz-Tillman, I’ll be disappointed, even if it isn’t the worst thing in the world.
But what I think we can all agree on is that if no major changes are made to the organization over the winter, we’re looking at a best-case scenario of 4th place and upper 70s wins next season, right?
Also: Kam already has a nickname: The Almighty.
The biggest question for next year’s rotation has to be Guthrie. He deserves to earn a spot out of spring training, but I’m not sure he should be guaranteed a spot.
@Andrew – John Sickels, right? Arrruuddicacacaa!!!
Lou Montanez was not effective in his brief 2009 with the Orioles. He’s certainly not better than Reimold or Pie. He will likely replace those Guzman/Diaz characters and join Gathright and Fio roaming the OF in Norfolk. Not a bad trio to have in AAA if you ask me.
How are we looking at Third and Shortstop. Is Josh Bell the prospect we are looking at there? What about SS? I alway thought our three biggest holes were 1st, SS, and 3rd.
@Swint – Josh Bell, it seems, will get a chance to be the answer at third. That’s why they brought him in despite not wanting to trade Sherrill. Problem is, he’s probably not going to be ready next year. We’ll probably see either Wigginton or a veteran for a season or two depending on how Bell develops.
SS is a good question. In the short term, Izturis is the guy. He’s a nasty fielder and he’s still relatively young (he turns 30 in February). But they definitely need to find someone who can eventually take over that role and stabilize it for 4-5 years. Right now, I’m not sure that guy is in the system.
So, I of course love CamdenCrazies and the former frostking baseball site, and he was recently talking about – as most of us have, I would think – perhaps trying to trade for Adrian Gonzalez (who is having a better year than a certain dickhead in pinstripes) and how it’s probably a bad idea for the Orioles to give up the farm for him. At first I thought it was a good idea to maybe do it, but his analysis was solid and partially convinced me.
Then this morning I was riding over to the Rochester Public Market and chatting about Cy Young candidates with my Yankee-loving girlfriend and that turned into a conversation about how the Red Sox were trying to trade for King Felix which got me thinking:
There have been dozens and dozens of big-time blockbusters where a Superstar is traded for a bunch of prospects, and of all of those, I can only think of a fraction of such deals that worked out for the team acquiring the Superstar.
Consider this:
Bedard to the Mariners, big win for the Orioles.
Teixeira to the Braves, big win for the Rangers.
Nady to the Yankees, win for the Pirates.
Davis to the Orioles, win for the Astros.
Johnson to the Yankees, win for the Diamondbacks.
Gagne to the Red Sox, no decision.
Willis and Cabrera to the Tigers, looking damn good for the Marlins.
Pierzynski to the Giants, big win for the Twins.
Colon to the Expos, huge win for the Indians.
Mulder to the Cardinals, big win for the A’s.
Beckett and Lowell to the Red Sox is pretty even.
Anyway it goes on. Your counter-examples of good trades:
Schilling to the Red Sox was really, really, impossibly good for Boston.
Schmidt to San Francisco is totally unbalanced against Pittsburgh.
Beltran to Houston isn’t totally unbalanced, but you gotta think the Astros would do that millions of times again and again.
Brad Lidge to Philly looks pretty dumb on Houston’s part, and the Tejada deal wasn’t the smartest move ever (nor was it particularly bad, though)
Maybe if I spent more time on this I would find that these things have about a 50-50 chance of not blowing up on the Superstar-acquiring team…but it sure feels like when it blows up, it REALLY BLOWS UP right in your face (see the Bedard deal, the Davis deal, the Teixeira deal, the Colon deal).
My point? The asking price for a premium middle of the lineup bat like Gonzo would basically be every good prospect in our system, and we couldn’t do it without including one of the Big Three and probably Bell, too – and the odds of it blowing up on the O’s don’t make me feel good about it at all.
So, back to square one: how in the world are we supposed to improve the team this winter?