Orioles-Red Sox: Expectations
So are we happy with taking 1 out of 3 from the Red Sox?
I think Dan the Man put things in perspective when he asked that question a couple of posts ago.
The Sox arrive in Baltimore at 46-29, good for first place in the AL East. They’ve won six of their last 10, and on the season they boast the third-best team ERA in the AL (4.07). Across the board, their numbers are decent or better. They may have some of the most obnoxious, front-running, no account fans in all of Sport, but they can play some baseball.
So am I happy with taking one out of three from them? Absolutely not.
Every time the O’s play the Sox (and, though to a lesser extent these days, the Yanks) it’s a measuring stick. It’s a time to say things like “Bergesen sure has looked good, but how will he do against the big boys?” It’s an opportunity to gauge one kind of progress (that which we can see day in and day out) against another (where do they stand in relation to the true contenders). As angry and as upset as I can get, these are the wins I want the most.
So it’s 100% correct to say that they’re probably only going to win one out of three. But I’m not going to be happy with anything less than a series win, and on some level — right now — I actually expect just that.
It will take our best baseball to do it, of course. While I’m pretty sure even Felix Pie could get a hit off of John Smoltz these days, both Lester and Beckett have been all kinds of tough lately. On the flip side, only Bergesen (game three) has shown any kind of consistency this year.
Still, I’m feeling good about this series. Maybe there’s no way to really back that up, but I’m sticking with it.
Up first: Jason Berken and the aforementioned Jon Lester.
Not that I think it will happen, but I’d say we have a shot at 2 of 3. I think we’re only gonna win 1 game, and our bullpen will make it a close game too. Smoltz is on his 2nd start, and I feel like we always play Beckett pretty tough. Might be my imagination, but I’d say we have a shot at 2 here.
I don’t think the question is how happy are you going to be, I think it is what do you expect will happen, and if we win once this week, how does that measure to your expectations. Nobody’s happy when the Sox beat the O’s (although there is the small consolation that every win the Sox get is one more game up on the Yankees in the playoff race).
And I think we win one of the last two games. I would be ecstatic with 2 wins, but I just don’t see it happening. But you’re right, this will be a fun way to see how the Orioles new players (Bergesen, Reimold, Wieters, and Berken) fare against the best team in baseball.
I can’t wait until we can say, “We need 2 out of 3 to stay in the Wild Card picture.” Wouldn’t that be different? I guess at some point, we should expect wins from our Orioles, but it won’t be until the starting rotation is SET and they start winning against clubs they should win against, like the Marlins.
Basically, when our rotation is Guthrie, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Bergesen, or close to that, the expectations will be higher. Right now, we kind of just hope that Berken doesn’t cough up 5 runs and Reimold, Jones, and Wieters knock in some runs. If that happens, it’s success at this point.
@dan the man – Sure. You’ve got to look at individual performance and not team performance when there are this many holes still. Of course, I still want to see the O’s land close to .500 as a team in 2009, but seeing the younger players develop is far, far more important right now.
@Andrew – I really feel like if (and I’m not really saying they should) this team decided to promote Tillman and, say, Matusz (again, obviously ill-advised), after the all-star break, we could make a legitimate run at .500 and probably get there. Of course, you don’t rush your prospects for a run at .500. It only just so happens that .500 means something to Baltimore because it’s been so damn elusive. I guess my point is that .500 is so close I can smell it. It’s right there, and all it takes are 2 more consistent starting pitchers. Guthrie, Bergesen, Tillman, and somebody else should be enough to get there, figuring that Tillman would have more success than Hernandez or Berken. And if that’s not enough to get us there, then we really are in the wrong division.
Side note: I’m more and more against trading Huff. I think he wants to be here and I don’t think it’s smart to count on Snyder to do anything in the big leagues. Why ship out a legit hitter when we might be a couple of solid starters away from contention? What would we get for him? A good major league-ready reliever and a PTBNL? Wouldn’t a couple of draft picks potentially be better than that if he decided not to sign an extension? I dunno… it seems to me that unless trading our veteran hitters means solving the 1B/3B problem, then we’re just trading for the sake of making moves. Baez, though, is a guy you trade to save a few bucks and because you can sell high and it’s Danys Baez. I’m all for that.
I’m not a big Huff fan and won’t be upset if he isn’t here in September let alone next year. Maybe if we had a legit third base power threat, but we don’t and instead Huff is billed as our clean-up hitter when he really, really shouldn’t be. We absolutely need to get better production at the corners to be a real disgustingly nasty, intimidating offense.
But there isn’t a damn thing coming on the free agent wire for a while in either category. And that makes the Huff thing tough – because there’s no way I want an aging Aubrey Huff playing first base for the next 3 years, nor Melvin Mora at third even next year.
But what are the options, really?
I still read your site everyday Neal. Sorry I haven’t been around much.
RE: Huff — I’m totally in favor of keeping him. It’s true that he’s better suited in the 5 or 6 hole than he is at cleanup, but right now he’s the guy with the best track record in terms of run production and there isn’t a markedly better option available. That and I agree with DtM that I don’t think he has much trade value.
There’s no harm in him sticking around while Reimold and Wieters mature into their roles. Indeed, the maturation of those two will only make Huff better if he’s hitting in front of them.
Berken, meanwhile, is pulling some serious Houdini shit tonight. He’s already at 72 pitches, two walks, and I think two hit batters with no outs in the fourth, and he’s only given up one run. Insane.
Then as I write that, there goes the second run. Paging Brian Bass, your table is ready.
@Greg – Thanks for checking in, man. It’s always good when you’re participating, but short of that I’m still quite glad you’re reading.
Sure enough, the wheels are off. Damn it.
…and I’m done with Berken tonight and forever.
About Huff, he’s 32, the classic end of a player’s prime (although Bill James proved that for most players the end is earlier, but that – and this is up on SI.com right now – 33 is the age of steep decline for many, many sluggers). I don’t see him extending for one year or even two years, and there’s just no way I want him here when he’s 35. A two year extension would be borderline foolish in my book.
I think that his career year last year is pushing across a positive vibe for him. This year he’s right back into his career norm: OPS+ of 107, which is basically what’s he done (outside of last year) since 2006. I don’t see him maintaining that production too much longer, and I don’t think that if he had put up an identical year last year as this year (if you follow), anybody would be talking about extending him.
But again, I do not know what the alternative is, because there aren’t any good free agent first basemen out there, and as of right now Brandon Snyder does not seem remotely ready to start everyday in the big leagues by next year.
@neal s – Yeah, after that last inning I thought, “Berken really needs to stop hanging out with Sherrill, he’s a bad influence.”
Also, don’t the Red Sox just make stealing bases look easy? It’s like I watch Ellsbury do it TWICE before the 5th inning, and I go “oh yeah, I remember those! We should totally start doing that!” Still confused at how fast so many of our guys are/can be and yet their SB stats are downright anemic.
Loved Jones stealing that YOUUUUUK homerun, especially that it took Gary Thorne half a minute to realize he caught it. LOL I love our announcers. One thing we can be happy about considering Yankees’, Angels’, White Sox’s, and (especially) Natinals’.
Well that’s the thing: no solid alternative. I’d be in favor of extending him for one more year, maybe with a club option and buyout for another. Clearly his skills will diminish, but unless someone better becomes available I don’t see him as a liability. Not yet, at least.
Waaaaaaait a minute, Berken is back out??
Trembley is either a genius or something I don’t want to say he might be, which is the opposite of genius.
Or maybe this is Trembley saying “suck it up, kid, we can’t tax the bullpen this early in the series, especially with no off days coming up. You gotta give us at least four or five.”
Honestly, that’s probably what I’d do.
Jon Lester just owns this team. Ugh.
Lester is 8-0 vs the O’s in 10 career games
Yep. Lester is pretty freaking great. Tomorrow’s a new day with John Smoltz. I can’t wait to hear about his career numbers against the O’s, as if he’s pitched against them since Cal Ripken, Jr. was playing.
Hard for me to get upset about this one. This is the classic “tip your cap and move on” scenario. Also Jason Berken has no business being in the big leagues right now. When Koji returns he has got to go back to Norfolk.
@Andrew – Agreed. Hernandez deserves his 5-10 starts now, while Berken needs time to take what he’s learned up here and try to refine his skills at Norfolk. We don’t know where either of them will end up, but the development curve favors Hernandez at this point. No reason to send him down.
That said, I’m pretty concerned about Koji. I don’t think he’s got what it takes to start, but I worry that putting him in the bullpen will send the wrong message in terms of both PR and international scouting. I realize that on-field results are paramount, but the Orioles can ill-afford to botch this one. Koji deserves and has earned respect.
The best move is probably to keep giving him every chance to start this year, then sit down with him and his reps over the winter and see if a bullpen move makes sense for everyone. The one thing the team absolutely cannot do — no matter what — is shift him to the bullpen without his explicit consent.
Not an ideal situation, but that’s how they have to approach it.
@neal s – As Clint Eastwood once said, “Deserves got nothing to do with it”. I do not believe for even a moment that the nation of Japan is going to freak out because the Orioles reconvert Koji into a reliever when a) he was a reliever in Japan, and b) he has shown that he can’t stay healthy enough to be a starter and throw even 90 pitches during the summer.
The real problem is that there is nobody to take his rotational spot if they put him in the bullpen in early July, since it’s too early for Tillman (in my opinion) and nobody else is really jumping out to be called up.
So again it’s a question of alternatives. And I will say this, in regards to Koji and Huff: just because you are in a tricky situation does not make doing something foolish worthwhile. I think we learned that with the great bullpen free agent extravaganza from three years ago.
@Andrew – Easy there, tiger. I can see that there’s a hint of ambiguity in what I wrote, so allow me to clarify:
The issue is not turning Koji into a reliever, it’s how they handle it. I believe that they absolutely must have his explicit buy-in and consent. He needs to stay happy. Doing things otherwise might not cause “the nation of Japan” to “freak out,” but it will probably sully the team’s reputation among scouts and agents who work with/for Japanese players. Why take that risk?
As for nobody to take his spot, I know you’re a Hernandez Hater but the guy at least deserves some starts to show what he can (or can’t) do.
@neal s – The way I see it, the rotation ought to be at this point (when Koji’s back) Guthrie-Bergesen-Hill-Hernandez-Uehara. If Koji goes to the bullpen, then there is nobody to take his spot except for Berken, who shouldn’t be starting in Baltimore right now.
On the other topic, I think the Orioles have gotten a lot of goodwill out of Japanese players because they were, as I recall, the only team that wanted to even try Koji as a starter, which is why he signed here in the first place. Just because it isn’t working out, for either party, doesn’t make it a bad move to put him in the bullpen, even if he says he wants to be a major league starter.
But generally I agree, it would be much better if he were to agree to a bullpen move; we just cannot be held in check by a single player’s wishes when those wishes go against improving the team.
Sorry haven’t chimed in much lately.
Anyways, I think today is the best chance to score a run this series.
I mean, to Win A Game this series…
If you can’t hit hard a 43 year old coming off major surgery, at your home park, then something is Wrong…
Which brings me to my next point. Somewhere the Sox deserve credit for pulling all these people to opposing stadiums. Counting the Orioles, Devil Rays, Blue Jays and Nationals (this year) the Sox will have had virtually 100 home games this season.
General Manager? Saavy ownership? Marketing?
Is this just a testament to “winning”? Or to the 500 sellouts and ridiculous prices at Fenway?
@Joe the Guy – That last one. Also, as far as the BosWashington Megalopolis is concerned, there’s a lot of transplanted New Englanders, which helps, too. But it has to be the winning, more than anything else.
Or does it? Looking back at the attendance numbers at OPACY shows distinct spikes in attendance for Red Sox games from 2002 until present day (before that most games, regardless of opponent, were getting the good attendance numbers). Of course, Boston starting winning a lot in 2002, but they wouldn’t have the bandwagoners until ’05. And we don’t know the fan affliations of those attendance numbers, and we can’t remember that far back anecdotally.
Results: inconclusive.
It’s a combination of management putting together a good team, jacking the prices at Fenway, and winning 2 championships in the last 4 years. I hate them because they are better than us.
I agree on Berken. He’s got good stuff, but he makes at least 1 really bad “mistake” pitch per at bat and major league hitters will kill you on that pitch 9 times out of 10. If you can’t control your fastball, you aren’t going to make it. I don’t mind giving Koji one more shot in the rotation, and sending Berken back down. No real indication of how many more starts Hill will get. I suppose if he keeps mixing in good starts, they’ll let him pitch all season. But you have to think that as soon as more than 1 of these starters starts to really become ineffective, it’s Tillman time.
I am confident that we will score runs tonight. If the Nats can do it, we can do it. Although we tend to always miss the bad starts and catch guys like Smoltz when they’ve made adjustments and pitch well. So. I dunno. The Red Sox piss me off so much.
Another one they touched on AM radio up here recently:
30,000 people at OPACY on a monday night ain’t happening unless the Sox are in town.
So do the Sox deserve 10% of the gate?
The Sox don’t deserve dick. Thanks for the money, it’ll help pay for Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and the rotation that will beat them in the future.
When the O’s beat the Sox in the playoffs, I’m going to write a thank you letter to Red Sox Nation and send it to the Boston Globe. Or the Herald – they’ll print that shit.
Yeah, that’s pretty asinine to even consider wanting part of the gate. I can’t imagine any right-thinking sports fan would agree with that position regardless of the stadium or opposing team.
It’s not about “wanting” it.
Gather Round! Let’s re-read my original question:
So do the Sox “deserve” 10% of the gate?
Any “right-thinking” mathematician or businessman knows the answer to that.
@Joe the Guy – Fair enough.
I’ll say no, but only because of this important factor: if the Red Sox are getting part of the Orioles’ profits, shouldn’t they then have a say in how the Orioles are run? And that would be collusion, which is against the rules.
But, through my teeth, yes the Red Sox and Yankees certainly do deserve part of those profits, because like it or not they bring business up everywhere just by being there. But it would asinine for anyone to really consider it a serious option.
I thought the topic was interesting and worth posting here BECAUSE of that exact connundrum -
it’s not a serious option, however, you can’t deny that in theory, it’s a “just” and “fair” proposition.
Related sub-question:
Do the O’s jack ticket prices for Sox games?
The Rays certainly do.
Which makes sense.
MUSIC CLUB XXX is free for “open mic poetry” on thursday nights but charges a cover for the JONAS BROTHERS On friday night.
That makes sense. So does Winning Percentage Ticket Escalation.
Right?
i’ve said it before; i’ll say it again:
the presence of Fed in area is main reason for huge amount of local Boston fans
it’s just a quirk of History / geography
The Orioles do charge more for tickets to see the Sox and Yankees. This is the second year they’ve done so. They ought to, too. Take advantage of the marquee matchups and out of towners.