The Cavalry Comes Correct
If it’s true that the Orioles‘ season effectively ended today in the eyes of all but the most loyal fans, the kids sent it out on a high note.
The bare facts:
Chris Tillman (age 21) and Brian Matusz (age 22) made their Yankee Stadium debuts in back-to-back games as the Yankees stand best in the league, on the way to a likely division title.
Tillman: 5 IP, 9 hits, 4 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, W
Matusz: 7 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, W
Look here: the future was on display these past two games and it looked damn good. Damn good.
Tillman’s line was a little shaky but those 8 Ks jump off the page and the offense had his back in a big way. Matusz was basically dominant in delivering the series win.
These games were for us. The stalwarts. I suppose there’s a chance that some of the naysayers and haters watched, and perhaps they even took a small measure of enjoyment. But they don’t really understand. They can’t, because most of them have lost the ability to simply enjoy a baseball game and say “That kid looks pretty damn good. I can’t wait until these September games matter more than they do now.”
If you can still do that — and feel it without an immediate “yeah, but” follow up — then, well, you just saw a couple of great games. Take it for what it’s worth.
(Photo? Keith Allison again)
This is weird: the last two teams to win two in a row at Yankee Stadium are these Orioles and the Nats earlier this year.
whats the evidence supporting the theory that throwing 180 innings will hurt a young pitchers arm? This is valuable experience for these young guys facing all these playoff bound teams here in sept and they want to shut them down? I disagree. Let them pitch. I would have 0 reason to tune in if matusz and tillman are done for the year.
@Dan H – It is widely known throughout baseball that (and this is dumbing it down quite a bit) for pitchers 25 and younger, throwing over 30 more innings than they have previously in their careers leads to serious arm injuries (some of which are never recovered from…see Fausto Carmona) at an alarming rate.
I heard Roch saying how it looked like Matusz was just getting warmed up and it is unforunate to have to shut him down since he isn’t fatigued, but it isn’t necessarily how he looks now…it’s how his arm bounces back next year.
Besides, this whole “get experience against teams in a pennant race” is hooey. It’s not like the Yankees weren’t playing good baseball in June, or even better baseball in June.
@Andrew – I’m all in favor of shutting Matusz and/or Tillman down if the people who actually know about such things claim it’s the right move. But, don’t tell me that there’s no benefit to a young player experiencing late-season, playoff-caliber baseball in Yankee Stadium. I guarantee you it’s a completely different atmosphere than June, and while the (ahem) stats may not reflect it, you’re somewhat out of your mind to claim that the experience isn’t valuable.
@neal s – How is it any different? You could even argue that this year, with these races already sewn up like they are, that the “playoff atmosphere” doesn’t even exist, because the games really don’t mean anything. And what is that play-off atmosphere, anyway? Is it cold weather and lots of cheering fans? Because that’s how it is in April in the Bronx, too. Seriously, it’s just one of those memes that really, really, really don’t make any sense to me (like, oh, “pitching to the score” or “playoff experience”). It isn’t playoff baseball, it can’t be a playoff atmosphere, and everything I’ve ever heard from an athlete suggests that they don’t really ponder the crowd that much during the games anyway.
And yeah, anyway, there’s just no question that it’s the smart thing to do to shut them down. I’m quite happy that the warehouse isn’t pushing them any farther than they’ve already been pushed.
@Andrew – I suppose that’s a fair enough point. The biggest difference, I’d say, is that they’re pitching against a playoff team. Against guys that are proven, battle-hardened, and ready to compete in October, as opposed to guys that are just assumed or projected to be that good.
Regardless, no question that if shutting the pitchers down is the right move in the eyes of the experts then go ahead and do it. Sucks a little bit for the fans, but I’ll take it over inviting the possibility of catastrophic injury.
@Andrew – ok stat guy, put some stats up. show me the alarming rate.
@Dan H – Sigh. Ok, let’s do this. And by the way, I’m not being argumentative this time – I just really don’t get the whole “make them pitch longer so they become better” school of tought – I’m certainly open to a good idea, but you have to explain it better.
Anyway: I picked up the idea from Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated who claimed at the start of the year to have flagged 24 pitchers in the last 3 years (that is, 2006-2008) because they were 25 or younger and threw 30 or more innings than their previous career high. Of those 24, 16 got hurt in the season he flagged them. Only 1 pitcher of thee 24 stayed healthy and lowered his ERA.
In 2008 he flagged Ian Kennedy, Fausto Carmona, Tom Gorzalleny, Ubaldo Jiminez, Chad Guadin, and Dustin McGowan to match up with Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Anibal Sanchez, and Adam Loewen(!) as pitchers who got serious arm issues / large ineffectiveness issues (except for Jiminez). This year he got Mike Pelfrey and Dana Eveland.
It isn’t an exact science, and it relies on body types and stressful innings and such that don’t get recorded by the mainstream (Verducci though had a great article recently about how Joba Chamberlain is going to be at a serious risk next year), but I can tell you this: the lower your age, the more at risk you are, and we’re talking about a 21 year old and a 22 year old.
I’m certainly not a pitching coach or a team trainer, so I guess my opinion really doesn’t matter, but innings to me equals experience. Young pitchers need to gain experience learning how to pitch in the bigs. You learn the hitters, you learn the umps, you learn the ball parks. You learn what works, what doesn’t. You learn how to get hitters out. You learn how to keep your pitch count down and get deep into games. You learn “what it takes” (oops there’s that vauge umbrella phrase you don’t like) to win baseball games. The more experience (innings) you get the better you will be. Why not get as many innings as you can now so that these pitchers are that much better next year, when we are closer to these games counting for something.
Don’t shut these guys down because were all afraid of something that is so inexact and in all likelihood a STATISTICAL anomaly of the last 3 years. Cuz we all know there is a plethora of historical pitchers that racked up innings at a young age and felt no ill effects whatsoever.
@Dan H – You really think that subjecting a young and fatigued arm to the unnatural and obviously elbow shredding activity of pitching is a good idea so that they can get some experience, which is gonna come next year anyway?
I mean, okay, the experience angle makes sense…but if the Orioles are betting their entire future on these two pitchers (and they more or less are, right?) I would think that if there is even a moderate risk of losing them for all of next year to TJ surgery, when they would lose out on a lot of experience…well, look, I want them to pitch as much as possible, but within a certain amount of risk.
Maybe it is a statistical anomaly of the past couple years, and yes, many great pitchers threw a lot when they were young (before we developed many of our modern sciences with labrum tears and TJ surgery and so on…), but how many pitchers that could have been great were destroyed by that process and never made it in baseball? Heck, Sandy Koufax was the best pitcher of his time, but his arm was in constant pain for the last two years of his career and he was retired by 33. Nowadays, guys are just getting started at 33 (or they think they are, anyway).
So, yeah, I dunno. But if it looks like a risk, then we’re much, much better off avoiding it and erring on the side of caution. These guys are literally the future for us and we NEED them.
Yeah, you can bet at least one of the young crop of pitchers that we are bringing up is going to have TJ surgery sometime within the next year or two. It’s almost a damn given these days. And we are extremely, extremely screwed if that person is Bergesen, Tillman, or Matusz.
Which is why Guthrie is important, and that’s why we need to get a FA pitcher who is a proven workhorse.
Shut them down.
I dont buy it. Injuries are like death. If it’s gonna happen, then it’s gonna happen. There isn’t a whole lot you can do about it. Whether it happens Sept 29th or May 18th. Some players are more susceptible to injury than others and I don’t think kid gloves is going to help.
@Dan H – I don’t know, man, I have to side with Andrew. These kids are the future of the team, and if medical science (which, I hope, is what the trainers and team doctors will rely on) says to rest them, then the only thing to do is rest them.
Or to put it another way, what’s the point of actually inviting injury? I get your point that there’s only so much you can do, but shouldn’t you do that much?
@neal s – This is like Magneto and the X-Men teaming up. Or Hitler and Churchill. I can’t remember which. Anyway, it’s weird.
@neal s – Yea, I get it. If the guy says hey my arm is tired, sure shut him down. But the whole thing pisses me off. Teams take it way too far these days and its mostly about money, which is another problem all together. All this money invested in somebody’s arm. It just seems like bullshit to me. I get it cuz its pointless to risk them cuz were 500 games out of first. But then its like why not shut down every other valuable piece of our season next year. No sense in Kakes laying out for a ball and breaking his wrist or Roberts sliding into home and tearing an ACL. Reimold is already playing with an Achilles thing, shut him down, too. Awards are pointless anyway, right. It makes no sense in playing too hard and getting hurt. Let’s bring up every player who is not a prospect from AAA and field them. Gotta protect what’s valuable in these meaningless last few games.
It’s an utter exageration, but that’s what that says to me.
@Dan H – Pitchers with only a small amount of professional experience are a special case. The game is pitching, period. You just can’t risk a prospect like Matusz if/when the medical expertise says it’s smart to rest him.
Remember that there aren’t any discussions about sitting Wieters or Reimold. The team isn’t being overly conservative, they’re just being smart.
I get your point, though. You want to see the team play baseball and put their best players on the field every night. I want that, too, right up to the point where it becomes dangerous.