The Elephant In the Kitchen
Hot Stove season is nigh, and with it comes Andy MacPhail’s most challenging set of tasks since joining the Orioles. I expect he’ll leave no stone unturned in his effort to field a competitive team next year, but there’s at least one thing he can’t control. One thing that will affect every move the O’s make or don’t, but which will probably go largely ignored or downplayed by most fans and pundits.
Put simply: there are free agents who will not sign here. Not because of money and not because of how close the team is to competing. Rather, it’s a sad but unavoidable fact of present-day MLB free agency: some players don’t want to compete in the AL East unless they’re wearing pinstripes or red socks.
You can call me an apologist if you like, and you can say I’m making excuses. Whatever. I’m telling you what I know. It is a fact that some players will not come here — nor would they go to the Blue Jays or the Rays — barring a deal that literally breaks the market.
For example, we can cross John Lackey off our wish list. It’s not happening. Not because the O’s don’t want him and not because they’re unwilling to pay him market value, but because he doesn’t want to face the AL East.
I bring this up because it’s important to understand the true shape and scope of Andy MacPhail’s task this offseason. He has committed to putting a solid team on the field, but he knows that some moves are non-starters. We need to recognize that and formulate our expectations accordingly. If we enter this offseason expecting Big Names we will probably be disappointed.
Instead, we need to enter this offseason expecting two things: intelligence and creativity. We should expect moves that improve the team, even if they don’t seem like red meat. We should expect a shift in culture and expectations, even if it doesn’t always look like Christmas morning.
I’m not saying this to set us up to where we can say “well, he tried.” Quite the opposite, in fact. MacPhail’s challenge is greater than it would be if he could simply buy a winner. He has money, and he has the green light to spend it. That does him little good. He has to be better and cleaner than the other guys. He has to be persuasive and he has to find diamonds in the rough.
It’s not fantasy baseball. It’s going to be a hell of a lot harder than that.
I don’t know about that. I mean, yes I am sure there are some guys who just want to play for the Yankees, but I don’t know that there are guys who specifically don’t want to play against the Yankees outside of financial considerations.
But that’s kind of the rub, isn’t it? I believe the Orioles could get John Lackey to come here, but since his market value is probably around 80 million over 5 years, it would probably take closer to 100 million to bring him to Baltimore, and I’m not sure how wise that would be (on a number of different levels). But I don’t see Lackey turning down a huge payday just to have the luxury of not facing the Yankees and the Red Sox.
And another thing…I don’t think it’s fair to lump those two teams together. In the grand scheme of things, it’s the Yankees versus everyone else. Name me one free agent who the Yankees went after but didn’t sign with them (actually I can name exactly one: Greg Maddux. Give me another one). Meanwhile, plenty of free agents have turned down the Red Sox over the years for one reason or another. They really aren’t in that different a boat from the Rays or Jays or O’s.
Now I’m going to duck before you all throw heavy thinks at me.
I’ve said it 8 million times and one more time won’t hurt: we could have thrown $210 million at Tex and he wouldn’t have come here. Why? Because he’s still playing baseball on Halloween like he knew he would be 9 seasons out of 10 as a Yankee.
But Neal is right. Not only does Lackey most likely not want to face the Yankees and Red Sox as an Oriole, but he’s tasted the playoffs year after year as an Angel. I don’t care if you’re making 10 extra million a year on your next deal as a free agent, once you’ve been a perennial big-game pitcher in the playoffs, you’re not going to go play for a rebuilding team when you can get equal money to play for a contender.
The hard fact is that the Orioles are going to have to show the baseball world that they can’t compete with the “big boys”, and they’re going to have to do it without the benefit of being able to attract big name free agents. That’s the thing that’s not understood… all these big name free agents that people think we can just overpay to come here (we can’t) are the people we need to show proof to that we can be a decent team. It’s a catch-22.
Like Neal said.. we have the money and the OK to spend that money, and in the end that will get you a lot of players here, but probably not the big names because those guys want to be in the playoffs and they know who can get them there the fastest.
Good luck, Andy.
@dan the man – I don’t think that it’s not that they won’t come here regardless of the money offered, but I do think that if the Orioles had a winning foundation like the Red Sox or the Yankees do that it would be cheaper and therefore smarter and easier to sign the big names.
But come on, you guys are deluding yourselves if you think that 98% of the time it isn’t just about money. Why did Gil Meche go to Kansas City? Why did Adam Dunn go to Washington? Why did A-Rod go to Texas? Why did Carlos Lee go to Houston? Or Beltre to Seattle? I can go on for an eternity. Money talks an overwhelming amount of the time.
@Andrew – I’d say two things on that.
One, all of the names you mentioned are second-tier guys. Good players for sure but not on John Lackey’s level.
Two, you’re right that money talks but I know for a fact that some agents have told the Orioles not to bother because their client(s) won’t play here, and the reason is the unbalanced schedule against the Yanks and Sox.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a theoretical number where these guys would be so blown away that they’d put their objections aside. That number, though, would be so far above reasonable that it wouldn’t make sense to do it.
I think Andy can and will get some good players here. Some guys, though, are going to be off-limits. Dan’s point about the catch-22 is exactly right.
startin’ to look like i won’t have to worry about that game 7. neat.
So sad, yet so true.
@neal s – Well, you could certainly make the argument that if a player is too chicken to play against the Yankees then fuck ‘em. Also do you have proof that John Lackey (the ONLY top tier player the Orioles should target* this winter) is such a player?
What a refreshing football game. The Ravens looked like a team that was out to prove a point and the fans fanned the flames right out of the gate. The whole team just looked fast and fired up, and clearly played with more intensity than Denver all four quarters.
The blitzes didn’t result in the secondary getting beat down the field and we actually tackled today. And then just when you thought this would be a “classic” Ravens defense-only game, the offense stepped up. Rice is the shit. And it was nice to see McClain finally get a few carries. Huge huge win.
if the ravens play like that the rest of this year they can beat anybody.
it’s pretty evident that greg mattison used the bye to figure out what all us fans knew all along.
BRING THE PRESSURE STUPID
i mean, look what pressuring the qb did for the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad defensive backs that couldn’t make a play this year.
also officiating is a fucking JOKE. luckily it didn’t cost the ravens but it sure as shit cost the jets.
can’t wait until the refs figure out that the ravens’ aren’t really bullies anymore because they sure throw the fucking flag WHENEVER ASKED.
seriously, the jets season could be over because of that bullshit phantom “illegal shift” call. when are these assholes going to lose their jobs?
I know Lackey has said he will go to highest bidder…
Where did he say he doesn’t want to face AL East?
It was delightful to see the Ravens finally go out there and shut us up and save their season. Unfortunately, the work is really just getting started because they could really, really use a win in Cinti if they want to make the playoffs. And they clearly do.