The Futures Game and More
The Fremulon Insurance Prospect of the Week
Brian Matusz finally had his extremely impressive scoreless streak broken yesterday at the Futures Game, where he looked nervous and decidedly not like himself in his single inning: bunt base hit, steal of second, walk, steal of third, run-scoring ground ball double play, ground ball. Additionally, his performance prompted John Sickels to remark “Frankly I thought he looked smoother in college. His delivery is concerning me for some reason…looks stressful on back and shoulder“. I take away little from seeing a single inning, but neither Matusz nor Chris Tillman looked at all comfortable in the All-Star spotlight, which is strange, based on what I’ve heard about their supposedly terrific mental makeup. At any rate, Matusz did continue his reign of terror over the Eastern League this week, throwing eight innings of one-hit ball with no walks and eleven strikeouts against the decidedly weak Harrisburg Senators (WAS). He has given up a grand total of one run at AA so far in four starts.
Norfolk Tides: 50-38 (1st IL South)
In the comments last week, Dan the Man pondered briefly about Brandon Snyder and his AAA scuffles. Snyder has dropped his AA OSP of 1.018 in 228 PA for a AAA .612 in 88 PA. Looking more deeply, Snyder’s Ks are up (23% from 20%), his walks are way down (6% from 12%), and his power has disappeared – although the word is that Harbor Park in Norfolk will do that to you, provided your name is not Nolan Reimold. I think that this is basically normal adjustments that Snyder has to go through in order to develop into a major league quality hitter (not sure he’s going to ever be a major league quality fielder), and I expect Snyder to eventually make those adjustments. But we might not see Snyder in Baltimore until next September. He has a lot to prove.
Bowie Baysox: 50-40 (3rd EL South)
Good news: Baltimore native (and top ten Oriole prospect) Brandon Erbe has been reinstated from the 7-day DL. Bad news: He twisted his ankle after a couple of so-so innings. I guess that angry voodoo witch doctor got bored after Hayden Penn was traded and has moved on to Erbe.
Frederick Keys: 9-7 (2nd CAR North)
This past week I read an interview with Caleb Jospeh, catcher extraordinaire. In it, he made an interesting observation on walks and walking, wherein he said ostensibly that he doesn’t have the ability to take borderline pitches like leadoff hitter Matt Angle does. Daniel Moroz took that idea and riffed on it, saying (among other things), “Caleb doesn’t walk enough right now (and so likely won’t in the future) to be an impact player in the majors, but he has other skills that will still allow him to be a contributor at that level“. So, devoted readers, I put it to you: Acknowledging that we’re talking about high-A ball, which of these players has the best chance to be a productive major league hitter:
Joseph: 80 for 234 with 16 doubles, a triple, 7 homers, 12 walks, and 37 Ks (.342/.378/.509)
Angle: 85 for 300 with 8 doubles, 3 triples, no homers, 40 walks, and 39 Ks (.283/.369/.330)
Delmarva Shorebirds: 6-10 (6th SAL North)
Earlier in the season I talked about four pitchers making names for themselves as the “Third Tier” in Delmarva, speculating that we could be seriously thinking about Rick Zagone, Nate Nery, Cole McCurry, and Oliver Drake in a few years. Since then, Zagone and Nery have been promoted to Frederick after outstanding campaigns in the Sally League, but McCurry and Drake have been left behind. If you’re looking for a reason, it’s easy to point to their “struggles” since June 1st: Drake is 3-4 with a 5.66 ERA and McCurry is 0-4 with a 5.09, and both are averaging about 5 innings per start. But in reality they are both pitching pretty darn good and have cases for being called promotion snubs. In that same time period (since June 1), Drake has 9 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, and a 3.14 FIP. McCurry has an even better (despite the record) 9.17 K/9 and a 2.58 FIP. With the terrible Shorebird defense behind them, it’s no wonder their ERAs are so high.
(photo via)
Hey, thanks for link. I never meant to imply that Angle would end up as a better hitter than Joseph (nor do I mean to say that you’re accusing me of that). In fact, I think Joseph has the better chance of being a successful hitter at the highest level, though more Ramon Hernandez than Brian McCann or Mike Piazza (ie, contributor – not impact player). As long as Angle shows absolutely no power, there will be nothing stopping major league (or Triple-A) pitchers from just challenging him all the time – that will make it harder to keep walking so much, even with a great eye.
@Daniel – It’s also worth noting that Angle is 9 months or so older than Joseph, though both are currently 23 years old. I don’t think that the power is going to come to Angle suddenly at this point.
I certainly don’t consider Angle more offensively valuable at all compared to Joseph, but it’s mostly based not on walks at all but rather on strikeouts. If all other numbers were equal, but Joseph struck out considerably more than Angle (as it is, it’s 11% to 15% of all plate appearances, which isn’t nothing, but a 15% K rate is acceptable), that would be a big red flag.
But if Angle can’t hit then his ability to walk will only take him so far, and the ability to hit will take Joseph farther. It reminds me of JoePo talking about Andre Dawson or Jim Rice or someone and mentioning OBP not being valued properly because “walking wasn’t important” and Joe countering with, sure, but most of OBP is not walking – it’s hitting.
———————————–
Anyway, on this break day number 1, I am counting my blessings that the Orioles aren’t run by Dayton Moore and the rest of the KC staff, who are easily the worst front office anywhere – and I’m probably underselling how incompetent they are. Thank Goodness for Andy MacPhail.
Oh, I kind of lost my point about the strikeouts in my head while typing. Oops.
While Joseph doesn’t strike out a lot at this level, I worry a lot about his admitted weakness in determining borderline strike/ball calls. Sure, right now he’s making contact and hitting the ball, but you have to figure that as he advances through the minors, those pitches are going to be become more commonplace, and much harder to hit, and the K-rate could soar.
On the other hand, a guy like Angle, who’s great asset is having a strong feel for the strikezone, could become more valuable (albeit without the power, although there are certainly roles for those types of players on major league squads) as those pitchers become stronger because his K-rate should (in my opinion) not rise as high or as fast as Joseph’s.
So, I guess I’m saying I don’t know which is more valuable – a contact hitter with pop or a plate discipline guy without pop but with speed (26 for 35 SB is above the break-even point), nor which will develop better. But I wouldn’t exactly bet on either of them.
I might be going to a Shorebirds game this weekend. Looking forward to hopefully seeing some of these kids, instead of reading about them and listening to the games on the radio. Hopefully it works out.
The Futures Game struggles of our two guys is enough for me to back off the “call up Tillman” bandwagon – at least for awhile. It will be an interesting thing to watch. Certainly you can’t take a whole lot from an inning or two in an exhibition game, but there’s not a whole lot for Tillman and Matusz to be nervous about at this point.
Regarding KC, um… yeah… Betancourt? For two young pitchers? It makes absolutely no sense. Betancourt isn’t going to help you with the bat or glove, he’s kind of expensive, and he’s not young enough. Bizarre. Same goes with the Pirates, who just continue to purge their roster of good, young players and are not getting much in return. You have to feel bad for their fans. I mean, they had McClouth, Nady, Bay… talking about trading Sanchez, they traded Morgan (good deal for the Nats, by the way). It’s like, well, what the hell is the plan exactly over there?
@MarkH – If you do go, please chime in on what you saw. It’s always good to get that kind of perspective that the rest of us can’t always get from the box scores.
@dan the man – A single inning should give you basically nothing. I highly doubt the Orioles’ plans have changed because Tillman wasn’t sharp on Sunday.
In regards to the Pirates…I actually think they’re on the right path trading Morgan, Bay, Nady, and McClouth, since they’ve gotten a ton of useful parts for those four guys, and none of them were helping them win, and none of them were young, and especially the Nady deal looks just terrific for them.
But boy am I glad the Orioles are supposedly further along the rebuilding path than Pittsburgh.
@Andrew – I see what you did there.
MLB OF Nate McLouth 27yo
MLB OF Xavier Nady 30yo
MLB OF Jason Bay 30yo
MLB OF Nyjer Morgan 28yo
MLB 1B Eric Hinske 31yo
MLB RP Sean Burnett 26yo
MLB RP Damaso Marte 34yo
for:
A OF Eric Fryer 22yo
A RP Casey Erickson 22yo
A+ SP Jeff Locke 21yo (#9 top prospect for Pirates)
A+ SP Bryan Morris 22yo (#8 top prospect for Pirates)
AA OF Gorkys Hernandez 21yo (#5 top prospect for Pirates)
AA OF Jose Tabata 20yo (#3 top prospect for Pirates)
AAA SP Daniel McCutchen 26yo
MLB 3B Andy LaRoche 25yo
MLB OF Lastings Milledge 24yo
MLB OF Brandon Moss 25yo
MLB SP Charlie Morton 25yo
MLB SP Jeff Karstens 26yo
MLB SP Ross Ohlendorf 26yo
MLB RP Joel Hanrahan 27yo
MLB RP Craig Hansen 25yo
(rankings from ScoutingBook.com, seemed most up to date since trades)
They got 4 good prospects plus some young filler that could turn out okay for three good MLB players and change. Maybe it’s not so bad?
I tell me Yankee-loving girlfriend all the time (she spends a lot of her time rolling her eyes…like 84% of her standard day is just rolling eyes) that the Yankees really fucked the dog by trading Tabata, Karstens, Ohlendorf, and McCutchen for Nady (didn’t help them last year, career threatening injury this year) and Marte (didn’t help them last year, hurt and ineffective so far this year).
The Pirates front office has been getting a ton of flack for their moves, but it’s basically the equivalent of trading Tejada and Bedard (without the massive win return or fan support). Burn that forest so it can regrow stronger.
Anyway. I should’ve also pointed out, for anyone who didn’t watch the Futures Game (shame shame shame), it was raining while Tillman was pitching and then there was a four hour delay before the game continued, so conditions were less than ideal. Still, a couple of guys pitched really well (Drabek and Feliz stand out) despite the conditions.
If the Pirates think they can get a solid outfield out of Milledge, Moss, Tabata and Hernandez in the next two years, it may have all been worth their while.
Keith Law on Chris Tillman’s poor outing from the Futures Game: “I’ll forgive him…It was raining pretty hard…the conditions were not good…It was almost as if the the first pitch and then boom…it went from zero to pretty hard over the course of maybe 4 or 5 pitches. So I’ll cut him slack…He showed some depth on the curve ball. I have seen him better in the past, there’s no question, but the package is still there…I thought the delivery was the same, body’s great obviously, gets good downhill on the fastball; I have seen him throw a little bit harder in the past, but I’m willing to forgive him that because the conditions were not great.”
Nothing groundbreaking there, but it’s good to know that his delivery wasn’t affected by whatever else was going on. The diminished velocity that I’ve heard about could very well be from slippery mound conditions, and there’s no reason whatsoever to think that he failed miserably in his big test.
I predict Tillman debuts on August 10th (or thereabout) against Oakland at home.
@neal s – Sure thing Neal. I live near by, but don’t get to enough games like I wish I could nowadays. Looking forward to taking in the game.