What If the Big Three Stumble?
Orioles fans have been justified in pinning many of our hopes for the future on Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Jake Arrieta. We’ve seen what it means to have overrated prospects (Matt Riley? Sean Douglass?) and it gives us enough perspective to understand that these guys are different. For the first time in years, experts outside of Baltimore actually agree. These guys really do have all the potential we say they have. Imagine that.
They are so touted, in fact, that we’re willing to deal with the possibility of a Mark Hendrickson or a Danys Baez — two gentlemen with no business in a major league rotation — making starts in an Orioles uni while we await their arrival.
One consideration that maybe gets glossed over, however, is that potential is just that. Not one of the Three has yet thrown a pitch in AAA, let alone the major leagues. As impressive as they’ve been (Matusz was arguably the best pitcher in spring camp), they have a long way to go.
So the question might be: what happens if they don’t all work out? What if (knock on wood) two of them get injured and one just isn’t any good? Or what if all three end up being #4 or #5 starters in the bigs? What if…?
It’s a possibility. Not saying it’s likely, not saying it’s even 50-50 (I don’t think it is), just saying it’s a possibility.
That said, here’s why I’m not too worried: depth. In the form of Bergesen, Erbe, Hernandez, et al.
While none of our other names are as heralded as the Big Three, the landscape is not completely barren. We have enough stock to deal with maybe one guy stumbling a bit or another one missing six months with an injury.
I mention this because it’s important to remember that we’re not just sitting around waiting for deliverance, or that we’ll be caught short if it doesn’t come. I actually think the system is deep enough and well-managed enough that we’ve got the wiggle room to weather a few surprises. Surprises which are, of course, inevitable.
But maybe I’m wrong? What do you think happens if the Big Three don’t all pan out?
(photo via Flickr user Hoodwinks)
You’re forgetting something important: the system is going to keep refreshing itself. Ideally, that is if Andy MacPhail et al.’s plan comes totally into fruition, the Orioles will be collecting more strong prospects every year from the draft, international scouting, trades, and free agency. It’s how Billy Beane got it done for a while, and its how the powerhouse machine that is the Boston Red Sox get it done – constantly churning up new, good prospects to replace those that graduate to the big league club or stumble and fail.
So I’m not worried. Because in a few months, it’ll probably be the Big Four. At least.
Excellent point.
It would totally suck for that to happen, but at the same time just about every club has these fears too (maybe not the Mariners because we have AJ). But this is something that everybody has when they have prospects, not just the Orioles.
I agree with Andrew. And there’s kind of that feeling like these guys are different. Even if they don’t pan out to be aces and #2′s and such, there’s a feeling that they’re damn well going to be better than Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn. No one was ever holding a place for Hayden Penn with a guy like Danys Baez. Our pitching prospects are far more legit these days.
And now we’re bringing everyone up through AAA rather than AA, which is a good thing. DT even mentioned recently that he’s not fully discounting Bergesen from the rotation. He just wanted to get him more innings by sending him down. The whole plan is just so much better. I think we can expect Matusz and one of Tillman/Arrieta to be solid starters. If they get injured, we have some other options. Matusz is already far more polished than “ace-potential” Adam Loewen ever was.
If they all simultaneously tank, we’re in trouble, there’s no doubt. And Andy will have to think long and hard about free agent pitching talent (REAL free agent pitching talent) because he’s been telling everyone to wait until these guys come up, essentially. If anything, a plan B needs to be in place just in case.
Well, its like the idea goes: you take your top prospects, cut them in half, and that’s how many will probably pan out. Or at least, that’s what you plan for. The Orioles will certainly benefit greatly from the last couple years of rebuilding. It’s a question of when and how much, not if.
Injuries/not panning out are huge concerns. The good thing is that the Orioles are picking at the top of this June’s draft and probably next year’s as well. Hopefully, they can land two more aces in those drafts.