Xavier, Hoes
Xavier A
very was signed out of high school in the second round of the 2008 draft, behind the more popular Brian Matusz. Avery is one of the top athletes in all of baseball. Not only is he very, very fast, but he has also the more refined ability to run the bases, where speed will only get you so far. His defense projects to play well for a major league team in either left or center field. Everything sounds great about Avery.
Except. He spent his first year of pro ball in the Gulf Coast League, and he wasn’t any good. He showed no power, although, honestly, his power won’t develop for a few years anyway. But what hurt Avery was a wildly inconsistent swing that needs a lot of work and pitch recognition skills that are in their infant stages. The result was brutal: in 47 games of rookie ball, Avery struck out a Corey Patterson-esque 51 times and walked only 10 times.
So he’s very raw. And that’s ok: he’s only 18, fresh out of high school, and the O’s don’t need or want him to move fast. Look for him to work on his swing at Bluefield or Aberdeen this year.
L.J. Hoes has a lot of cool things about him: his name, being a hometowner, his crazy on base percentage (.416 in the Gulf Coast 
League), and he’s only 19 this March. He showed a remarkable amount of plate discipline for a high school bat and a decent ability on the base paths. He has by all accounts a great work ethic and a good attitude for baseball. And he’s another one of those athletic players that organizations like to mold superstars out of.
But the thing is, he doesn’t really have those superstar tools. He’s got good speed, but not great speed. He’s got no power (though he’s 19, so we shall see). He can’t field (15 errors in 42 games). He’s got a long ways to go if he’s going anywhere. He needs to learn defense if he’s going to be a middle infielder, and a little bit of power would help. That on-base percentage is tantalizing, but there isn’t much around it right now, but he has a lot of time to develop. Hoes will go to Aberdeen in 2009 and we’ll see what he does from there.
I like that the O’s are going after athleticism and pitching in the draft. It’s hard to really go wrong with that plan of attack, especially since they seem to also be really considering character under Andy MacPhail.
But you’ve said about all there is to say about these two dudes because there’s not much to be known yet. Avery is pretty much obsolete at the moment with the organization’s good depth in the outfield, but he should be ready right about the time we might need him. And it’s a little disappointing about a guy like Hoes that his defense isn’t good at this point. I’m more excited about that 16-year-old Dominican SS prospect we’ve got (can’t recall the name at the moment).
I think if you’re going to draft any player out of high school, you’ve got to be looking for raw athletic talent above all else. 5 or 6 years of coaching later, he’ll still only be 23-24 and you’ll know if you’ve actually got something.