2010 O’s Position-by-Position: Catcher
May as well grab the low-hanging fruit first, right?
It couldn’t be more simple: Matt Wieters is the man. He’s the can’t-miss prospect turned rookie sensation who, back on May 29, reminded us what it was like to feel the full force of a sold-out hometown crowd at Camden Yards. With all due respect to the other young players, it is Wieters who most embodies our hope.
It helps that he didn’t disappoint during his first year. Despite some growing pains he finished with solid numbers: .288 AVG, .340 OBP, 43 RBI, 9 HR in 96 games. He struck out way more than he walked (86 to 28) but that’s not so crazy for a rookie. Perhaps most telling, he hit .362 with three homers and 14 RBI in September.
What I loved most about him was his demeanor. The kid is already a pro — nothing rattled him all season. He goes about his business with seemingly little or no regard for the outside influences swirling around him. He’s polished, as you’d expect from a Boras client, but not so much so that it becomes annoying. Which is a polite way of saying he’s not Mark Teixeira.
My gut sense is that he’s similar to Nick Markakis. A strong presence on the team but someone who might not have the right personality to fully embrace being its face. That’s just a guess, though. We don’t have enough to go on. And since we already have someone developing into that role (more on that later), it probably doesn’t matter much.
Wieters is our catcher now and for the future, and every indication points to him becoming an impact player sooner than later. Muster all the excitement you want about his 2010 season. It’s justified.
Plenty of uncertainty remains in terms of who will back him up. The only other catcher on the 40-man roster right now is Craig Tatum. He was a waiver claim from the Reds back in November. Three other catchers — Michael Hernandez, Chad Moeller, and Caleb Joseph — have spring training invites.
I’d bet that Moeller has the inside track. He performed well enough as the backup last year and he’s already familiar with the pitchers. But, that’s what spring is for. Maybe someone else steps up and makes a case. I’m not too worried about it one way or the other.
I’m expecting something along the lines of .290 with 20 HR and 85 RBI from Wieters this year. I figure he’ll couple that with very strong defense and a good relationship with the pitchers. Barring injury (knock on wood), this position is locked in.
(photo via Keith Allison)
i’m sure none of you company men are paying attention to the wnst drama this week but it’s truly glorious. having been a real baltimore resident for a while i finally have a voice.
sweet God allmighty free at last
tequila does funny things.
Do tell? I heard Nestor isn’t on the radio anymore. I’m always interested in the children at NST.
I love that in Baltimore being a fan is being a company man. We can’t be optimistic about the Orioles? Please let me know when it’s ok to do that, I’d love to be a fan without being called names because of it. Apologist. Company Man. On The Payroll. Kool Aid Drinker. Come on.. if you don’t follow sports to be a fan, what the fuck are you doing?
http://wnst.net/wordpress/nestoraparicio/2010/01/29/my-last-day-on-air-at-am-1570-goodbye-to-radio-hello-to-the-brave-world-of-the-web/
Is there any way that this 5-part “mini series” isn’t just going to be 5 separate self-promoting, ego-stroking, go-down-swinging, bitch sessions about Baltimore media?
Sorry, had a moment of weakness there.
This thread was actually about the Orioles catching situation. I think those projected numbers for Wieters are on target, and I’m hopeful that he’ll learn more patience up there. He also should be more in shape and stronger coming in this year after a full offseason of real deal major league training. He’s definitely the most intriguing offensive player to keep an eye on. It’s pretty much gonna be, what do Jones, Reimold, and Wieters do?
As for backup, I like Chad Moeller for his calm veteran presence and his solid all-around game. He’s a good dude, real positive. That being said, I’d be excited to see one of the younger guys tear it up in spring training offensively and earn the spot. Doubt that happens, but it’s good to know we have a guy like Caleb down there who should be a solid backup to Wieters down the road.
Also, I wouldn’t count out Wieters as a future team leader just yet. He’s got some fire in his eyes, but we’ll see. I think he needs to be a little less afraid to go out to the mound if he needs to and once he starts raking, I think we’ll see some Mauer-like quiet-but-not-as-quiet-as-Markakis type leadership. But I think we all know who is going to try to be the leader of this team.
Just to get pumped…
From the right side: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6962849
From the left side: http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6663479
CRUSHED (with bonus expression on pitcher’s face): http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=6806507
Damn. There’s nothing else in the world like the ambient sounds of a ballpark in summer. That’s exactly what I needed.
@dan the man – The back-up catcher spot is like the lamest thing ever. Also there aren’t any “younger guys” to win the spot. Caleb Joseph won’t get it, and we don’t have any catchers more advanced than he is in the system.
Wieters will certainly be a guy to keep an eye on this year. Last year the Orioles scored 741 runs (which was last in the division, 16th in baseball, and 11th in the AL), and how much the offense improves will in large part be due to Wieters’ maturation.
Projecting or predicting young players like Wieters is Very Hard, so I’m not sure I can really give it an honest go. But if he can put up a WAR over 3.5, then I’d be thrilled. That would have led the team in 2009, by the way.
Honestly, that .288 average that he finished the season with always sort of surprises me when I look at it. Unlike Reimold, Wieters does not have the ability to pad his average by being fast, so he really did just get his hits. Being able to go the other way and do it with crazy power is also huge. I’m excited.
So close to spring training. So close.
If you all want some sobering thoughts:
http://camdencrazies.com/2009/12/01/2009-os-retrospective-matt-wieters/
@Andrew – Like I want sobering thoughts.
Patience is the big issue. Wieters did swing at a lot of stuff and he did have a loopy swing, but I think he’s only going to continue to improve. You can find sobering thoughts about almost any baseball player aside from the elite, in my opinion.
Our hero has arrived.
http://en.tackfilm.se/?id=1265220871023RA89
@Noah – I didn’t think anything could be worth waiting for that to load, but I was wrong. Very, very wrong.
Hilarious. Thanks for sharing it.
@Andrew – There’s a joke about advanced statistics in there somewhere…but I’m not making it.
@neal s – And there’s a joke about predicting RBI in there, too. But I think we’ve all grown up too much for that.
@Andrew – hahahaha indeed.
If Caleb Joseph is any good at playing major league baseball, he won’t be a backup for Matt Wieters. He’d be better traded for a sack of magic beans then having him rot away on the bench. You just don’t need a baseball player that plays every fifth day to be real good. You would do fine with an average replacement level guy that you don’t have to pay very much. I don’t think there’s a team in the majors that carries two good catchers.
However, there is also the scenario where one of the two catchers is able to be moved to first base or DH on a consistent basis, having the two split time in the lineup wouldn’t be a bad idea. I just happen to think the MacPhail would realize that trading one of two good catchers would likely benefit the organization better than keeping both would.
Yeah, solid points on Caleb.
Sarfate cleared waivers and got an invite to ST. I want to see one last time if he has anything now that he’s healthy, but I’m not expecting anything. But I’m not really expecting anything from Matt Albers, either.
Anybody see that Jones got pulled over while doing an interview with XM for having his windows tinted too dark? Ha!
@dan the man – Oh yeah, that’s the stuff.
Looks like Mauer is damn close to signing a massive extension with Minnesota, and that could not make me happier for obvious reasons. Better start drafting catchers, New York.
@dan the man – It’s a thin class at catcher after this season:
I can only assume that Victor Martinez would be the Yankees’ Plan B?
There isn’t a great place to put this, but a friend of mine spoke with Joe Girardi in a private session. Girardi stated that they didn’t resign Damon because he was asking for too much (duh), and they didn’t resign Matsui because they couldn’t trust he’d be healthy at any given moment (duh). However, the reason why they didn’t lay out the cash for Holliday this year is because the Yankees are going to drop a motherload next year on Girardi’s purported “favorite player”: Carl Crawford. I don’t know how ‘inside’ that information is, but just in case you were wondering who the Yankees are going to lay in the weeds over… he’s the guy.
@Greg – Heck man, I told my Yankee-loving girlfriend that last night. That shit is common knowledge. I wouldn’t be surprised if they went after Cliff Lee, too.
Carl Crawford? Color me unimpressed. We basically get the same production or better from Brian Roberts, minus 20 or so steals. But seriously, how much does a steal even mean in a Yankee lineup?
@dan the man – That’s not even close to true. Come on, man, I know its the Yankees, but be a little bit fair. And definitely hope that the Rays figure out a way to hold onto Crawford.
@dan the man – Interesting thought, Dan.
According to the Baseball Prospectus (who doesn’t have data published on their website from 2009 yet)Brian Roberts posted these VORPs:
2006 – 31.4 (2.8 WARP)
2007 – 44.6 (5.7 WARP)
2008 – 47.8 (4.0 WARP)
And Carl Crawford?
2006 – 40.5 (4.2 WARP)
2007 – 38.5 (2.9 WARP)
2008 – 7.9 (2.6 WARP)
So, yeah, for two of the three years that I can get stats, BRo was more valuable than Crawford.
Projections for 2010, you ask?
BRo projects to 28.3 VORP, Crawford for a VORP of 26.8.
Huh.
@Andrew – Not even close to true, dude? Look at the stats! Carl Crawford hits about 15 homers, drives in about 60-80 runs, and hits about .300. That’s pretty much exactly what Brian Roberts does.
I’m just saying Carl Crawford has never struck fear into my heart when I see him come up to the plate. He’s not an easy out, but he’s not somebody I’m going to get all worked up about if the Yankees acquire. He’s a speedy outfielder with a solid bat. Whatever.
@Andrew – See my above post comparing VORPs. Roberts was better than Crawford in 2007 and 2008. I suspect Crawford had the advantage in 2009, but not by much.
@dan the man – VORP doesn’t include defense. Crawford plays a well above average left field and Roberts plays an (at best, if you believe the metrics) average second base. Also Crawford is younger (feels like he’s been around forever, doesn’t it?), and besides all of that:
Dan said “Carl Crawford? Color me unimpressed.” and then Miles shows that Roberts and Crawford have similar offensive production estimates for 2010. So if the Yankees picked up Brian Roberts, our team leader, would you be unimpressed then, too? Are you unimpressed with Brian Roberts?
That’s a really interesting back-and-forth in light of our ongoing push/pull regarding advanced stats. When I read Greg’s post about Crawford my first thought was “Crawford?” In my mind, from having watched him plenty of times, he’s a good but not scary player. I read Dan’s point and, without looking at any numbers, thought “sounds about right.”
I expected, though, that someone would bust out numbers suggesting the many ways in which Crawford is much more valuable. Miles’ post surprised me.
Sometimes — maybe not always, but it happens — what’s there is actually there.
You want defense numbers?
You got defense numbers.
Crawford’s FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average)
2006: 4 (add that to his VORP to create 44.5)
2007: -8 (reducing his VORP to 30.5)
2008: 14 (adjusting up to 21.9)
Brian Roberts:
2006: 1 (VORP hybrid of 32.4)
2007: 6 (VORP hybrid of 50.6)
2008: -11 (VORP hybrid of 36.8)
So, even taking one defensive metric into account… um… huh.
@Andrew – I see your point, and yes Crawford is younger, but is left field really a more important defensive position than 2B? I guess you could argue he would play CF for the Yankees, to be fair.
I’m not unimpressed with Brian Roberts. I’m very impressed with Brian Roberts, mainly because he’s a second baseman putting up those numbers. But I’m unimpressed with Carl Crawford The Left Fielder being the alleged marquee player the Yankees would try to acquire. He doesn’t hit for enough power for a left fielder and I don’t think he’s as good defensively as people think he is.
Plus, shit, Matt Wieters threw him out stealing twice in one game.
Neal, I’m not really sure what you mean. And again I say, if we assume Brian Roberts and Carl Crawford give similar production, then why aren’t you scared of Crawford? Roberts has been the Orioles’ best player for several years now…I would like to think that if I were a Toronto fan, I’d be scared of Brian Roberts.
@Andrew – Pretty much what Dan said. It’s not that I don’t think Crawford’s good, it’s that it’s all relative. Carl Crawford to the Pirates is a massive deal. Carl Crawford to the Yankees is just them signing a very good free agent.
@dan the man – All I can say is that I’d much rather see the Yankees not get a guy who is still young, trending upwards, who can put up a wOBA in the high .360s. And you know, I feel like I’ve heard a lot of Oriole fans saying we don’t necessarily need power at first base because we have Matt Wieters who can be our power hitter. Well, New York certainly has enough power hitters that they can afford to have a strong defender in left who gets on base and steals a lot of bases.
Anyway, this is a dumb conversation. We’re talking about the Yankees here people! I thought we were going to go through the Orioles starters and talk about our team!
On another note, I’m pumped for the snow. I guess it’s leftover from childhood, but seriously what does winter have to offer after the holidays if it’s not snowing? BRING IT.
Plus it’s a good excuse to be a PJ-clad LUMP this weekend.
1. PJs.
2. Hot chocolate.
3. Snuggles.
4. PS3.
5. Movies.
6. Booze.
7. Board games.
8. Reading.
9. Job-hunting. (we’ll see if I have time…)
10. Tea.
11. Snow Angels.
12. Repeat.
Feel free to add.
Bedard has agreed to terms with the M’s. This will ultimately be a good thing, I tell myself.
Also, Blue Jays sign Kevin Gregg. I also believe this to be a good thing. The guy simply cannot close ballgames.