Winning Orioles Baseball: Who, Why, and Does it Matter?
So the Orioles — the disappointing, disheartening, discouraging bunch that began this season with epic futility and forced us to question our notions of progress — now stand at 16-10 since Buck Showalter took the reins. They just swept the Angels on the road, a feat made even more impressive by the fact that it also represented a season sweep. Six games against Anaheim, six wins.
26 games isn’t a large sample size by any means but it isn’t a small one, either. It’s roughly 15% of the season and that’s enough to notice. I could be wrong but I don’t believe (going off of memory) that they’ve had another 26-game stretch this year where they played six games above .500. These are good times, well-earned.
I’d love to think that they could keep up the pace but they probably won’t. Beating up on the Angels is only just what it is. Not the same as running through the AL East. The September schedule is fairly terrifying.
Still, good things have happened to make for a 16-10 run. Stepped-up starting pitching. Improved hustle all around. Many of the same guys who failed earlier are succeeding now. Josh Bell appears to have settled in, and Brian Matusz looks good. Jeremy Guthrie looks like he could next year be the guy we thought Kevin Millwood would be this year. Brian Roberts appears to be strong. Brad Bergesen seems solid. Etc.
I wonder what Buck and Andy see in all of it. The month just passed and the month to come are all about evaluation and figuring out which current players deserve a spot next year. How much weight do they — and we — give this run vs. the rest of the season, and how much weight do we give the final month in light of it all?
Things might be a lot easier if they’d just continued to lose in spite of Buck. That they’ve stepped up a bit speaks to the notion that they underachieved for 2/3 of the season. Which counts more?
Or, to put it another way, who are these guys?
This upcoming 31 games will be the big test for this team. It could be the 31 most exciting games of the year, or the 31 most dissapointing. 24 of the games are games against teams we need to start beating if we ever want to stand a chance. The other 7 are the Tigers, no slouch there.
The schedule to end the season is much like the schedule to start the season. We will get a good sense of how far this team has come. If they hit a 2-16 stretch here again, then I guess you can chalk it up to these not being the right “nuggets” and they were just bound to have a good run. Then again, if we can keep the pace and finish 35-22 under Buck, proving we can hang around with the big boys, It gives me great hope for next season. If not, and they tank, I will have no hope.
What I want to see over the next 31 games, in no particular order:
1. Zach Britton with a winning record, and ERA under 3.50.
2. Nolan Reimold with a beter approach, 4 or 5 HR’s, hit over .300. Play him at 1st base, Give Wiggy some time off.
3. The bullpen to keep doing it’s thing.
4. SP’s keep racking up the quality starts.
5. A going away party for Crowley, Kranitz, and the rest of em.
6. An on field brawl in which A-rod and Texieria get beat to a bloody pulp.
7. Luke Scott to avoid the cold streak. stay hot, maybe raise that avg. over .300, and finish with 32-35 HR’s.
8. Win no less than 15 games. If we finish 15-16, then we finish 63-99. Did anyone think in June a 100 loss season was avoidable?
9. Ravens start 4-0.
I suspect it was merely a good run which every team sees at some point every year. The schedule lightens up a bit, the players run into some good luck. It happens. I guess Showalter’s presence made the team a little more focused (most teams see some kind of honeymoon boost in performance from new managers), but I don’t know if it’s some “turning the corner” watershed moment or anything like that. The Orioles had a 16-12 run last year at one point, which isn’t as good, but illustrates the point all the same: it’s a small sample size in the grand scheme of things.
They can prove me utterly wrong in September, though. What I’m looking for:
1) Reimold. I have no idea where they’ll play him (I’d bench Wigginton and put Scott at first and DH Reimold personally, but I don’t think they’ll do that). Nolan’s been playing a lot better recently (which makes you think that maybe his problems were mostly physical after all), and he’d be a tremendous asset going forward if he can come back.
2) The young pitchers to finish strong (though again, I have no idea when they’ll finish or how they’ll work in Chris Tillman who needs to be up here). I don’t expect to see Zach Britton at all. There’s no room for him and he frankly shouldn’t be called up so early.
I have the over/under on wins from here on out at 12.5. I’m taking the under. This is a brutal stretch run.
Over the past 30 days (basically August), the Orioles have the seventh best ERA in baseball. This is one of the reasons they have the third best MLB record for August at 16-11 (Reds and Twins are better with 17). Here are the Baltimore All-Stars:
Name IP ERA
Brian Matusz 31.0 2.32
Brad Bergesen 43.1 2.70
Jeremy Guthrie 44.0 3.07
Kevin Millwood 40.2 3.54
Jake Arrieta 30.1 4.45
Mark Hendrickson 5.1 0.00
Jim Johnson 1.0 0.00
Koji Uehara 12.0 0.75
Mike Gonzalez 8.0 2.25
Rick VandenHurk 4.0 2.25
Matt Albers 8.1 5.40
Alfredo Simon 10.2 5.91
Outside of Albers and Simon, nothing to complain about other than Arrieta’s K/BB ratio. Loving Koji as the closer; it took them a long time to figure that one out.
I’m going to the game tonight, if anyone cares to meet up and grab a drink, beat up some MFRS fans.