No More Big Moves Left For the Orioles
During the course of this offseason there were only two “name” free agents I ever thought the Orioles might be legitimately in on: Prince Fielder and Edwin Jackson. The former I always considered the longest of shots, but the more time he spent on the market the more I thought, maybe. The latter, well, that’s a guy I figured they might just overpay for the hell of it. In both cases, though, I never really believed it would happen. They were just the two most plausible options in a group of highly unlikely possibilities.
Now that both players are off the market we can really and truly come to terms with the fact that there’s probably not going to be a “big” move for the O’s this offseason. There might be a trade, sure, but even if there is I can’t see it being a blockbuster. Rather, the legacy of Dan Duquette‘s first Hot Stove season is one of shoring up organizational depth, reconfiguring the front office, and making solid preliminary inroads to the international market. None of those things figure to pay obvious dividends at the major league level in 2012, although we might be pleasantly surprised.
Side note: there’s been chatter about Manny Ramirez but that comes from Ken Rosenthal and I trust his reporting on the Orioles about as much as I trust a Wall Street Journal editorial on economic policy. Which is to say I take it with a ten pound grain of salt.
So now, with Spring Training just about a month away, I have a question: how do we grade Hot Stove 2012? Are you satisfied, disgruntled, or something in between?
I have my thoughts but I’ll save them for the comments. Here’s to kicking off the season.
B
This is definitely a something in between year, but on the positive side of the divide. No blockbuster signs or big names coming in, nothing to be overly excited about. At the same time, nothing to be upset about. Scott is gone, but personally I was never a big fan and considering the rest of the outfielders we have I think he can be replaced.
What I like about this offseason has been the direction that has been set. For years the focus in the offseaon and the major pickups have been offensive. This offseason most of the focus seems to be on pitching. Albeit, most of the guys that have been brought in are toss ups. They could be good but very easily could be busts. Even if they all fail, the idea is there so that’s what encourages me.
Of course, if Rosenthal is correct and they do end up signing Manny then the grade drops to a D-. It would be as bad, if not worse, than the Albert Bell fiasco. Manny is done, has been done for a while and will contribute nothing to the team. Not only that, it would be a sign that the organization has learned nothing from this past decade of woes. Lets hope that this is just a baseless rumor that Rosenthal is perpetuating because it makes an easy article.
@ PW:
I agree. Grade is about a B. Love the focus on pitching depth and on international. I’m also not at all sad about Luke leaving. Just a frustrating player, really, overall. I’m into simply giving the LF job to Reimold for him to lose. Certainly nothing to get too fired up about, as you say. Just a pretty solid start to yet another rebuild.
The real test for DD is going to be whether the instruction, conditioning, and talent evaluation in the minors can be improved to the point that at least some of the “prospects” coming up don’t immediately flop or get injured when they hit the bigs. Also just getting some higher end prospects in there as well, of course. BA just rated the farm system #19, and that’s about the average rating I’ve seen overall. For a team that hasn’t won since 1997, that’s beyond atrocious, not that we all don’t know that already.
They won’t sign Manny, but if they do, well… shit. I’ll be speechless.
Sorry, it’s Sickels who ranked us #19, not Baseball America.
I have no idea how anybody can seriously give this organization anything higher than a C-. And a C- sounds awfully optimistic.
What have they accomplished this winter? Not much, just treading water. They aren’t rebuilding (I am starting to seriously believe they legitimately never will under Angelos) and they aren’t building meaningfully. They’re just treading water, after winning 69 games in 2011, and hoping that like 4 or 5 players take their first big and unforeseen steps forward towards being good.
@ Andrew:
Baby steps. This org is so fucked up that I am happy with any progress forward. And there is some progress forward. Not swift progress, but progress. I’m taking what I can get with DD. Do I think this team will be good anytime soon? Absolutely not. With that in mind, I look at the baby steps like a better international focus, seemingly better drafting this past draft, seemingly renewed focus on conditioning and instruction in the minors… Hopefully that stuff pays off down the road. Maybe it won’t and it’s all just window dressing. So be it.
You’re right though that they’re not doing the full rebuild. And they should.
@ Andrew:
With respects to the on-the-field 2012 product, probably a C, but only because of Chen. It should have either gone full on rebuild, or full on Throw Stupid Money Around. They did neither, but at least we’re looking at full seasons from Reimold and Davis, and the rotation isn’t just all Cavalry. There’s some depth there for once, if the Asian imports work out.
With respects to the organization taking steps that even Andy MacPhail didn’t put in motion, I’ll give it a B+.
You can’t simply disregard the changes to the organizational structure – they appear to me to be real and sweeping. Yes, Angelos will drag this team down as long as he’s here. But under DD, there are things that haven’t Ever Been Done in this organization, and they’ve been put into place in a matter of a few months.
MacPhail was coming from a model in Minnesota that happened to work for him, and it looks like he did a poor job of implementing it here. Duquette is coming from the Red Sox and it’s probably painfully apparent how far behind the O’s are compared to that organization.
I’m still bullish that this team could surprise people, and it’s all about Jake, Zach, and Brian. As usual. But this time it doesn’t have to be all 3 of them at once.
@ dan the man:
I think the most important thing here is that the success of the team doesn’t hinge on a prospect or two. Instead it hinges on a few of the prospects out of several panning out. Before we would be talking about a pitching prospect or 2, and if they had good seasons then the team will be successful. Now there are several prospects and we need one or two to have a good season. The key is about depth. For once the Orioles are starting to build a little of that.
That all having been said, the O’s are still a long way from contending and being good consistently. But hopefully this is an indication of good things to come.
At least Duquette has a clue about scouting the international market. We will see if it pays off, but it will take several years to know for sure.
Please god do not sign ManRam. Save the too much money it will take to sign him and get Cespedes. He can play OF, Reimold can DH cause his arm sucks. Or Reimold can play 1B, Reynolds and Davis can switch between 3B and DH.
Also, add another arm on the cheap. Rich Harden and Jon Garland are out there. Probably passing their prime. But you never know. The more competition the young pitchers have this spring the better. Guys like that given one more shot could do special things. That theory doesn’t apply to ManRam though. Fuck that guy.
I’d even say give Brandon Webb the league minimum, with a chance to make the team, and a very very incentive laden contract.
I’ll go to Yoenis Cespedes t-shirt night. Never would I go to ManRam t-shirt night.
Hard to grade an offseason until it plays out, but I’m thinking D. F If they get Manny, C if they get Cespedes.
Well, that was just a bad trade.
Guthrie for Hammels (a lamer Guthrie) and Lindstrom (a reliever). Uhhh… what?
@ dan the man:
Garbage trade. Makes no sense unless it’s somehow leading to something else.
Seriously? They couldn’t have made Guthrie a deadline deal during last season, or this season where we could get something useful in return from a buying team? Unless they’re clearing up room to buy Cespedes, WTF! Stupid.
On no level do I understand this Guthrie move. Except, I guess, to point out that this is the Duquette I was worried we might be getting. Out of touch, ineffective.
@ sci:
I have to say that seems unlikely. It seems like this was a move to tinker with the 25-man roster, and probably aided by the upcoming arbitration hearing.
@ Mike R:
They’re only saving like $2 million or something like that, and they were interested in Fielder, so you have to think that doesn’t matter.
What are we even doing exactly? I just praised Duquette for his organizational moves, and I stand by that. But his lack of direction on the field has been seriously weak.
This doesn’t even really make sense for the Rockies, either, who gave up a GB pitcher for a FB pitcher in Coors Field.
@ dan the man:
That’s exactly right. There’s no direction in the roster-building.
I think the yahoo sports blog sums it up best, “the Baltimore Orioles took the easy way out with Guthrie.” They should have paid Guthrie or gotten younger prospects. Instead, they did neither and moved laterally (if not back). Don’t like this move at all.
@ dan the man:
Sorry man. They were in no way interested in Prince. They said they were, but then again who wasn’t interested in him, for the right price. They never even met with Boras, nor had plans to. They like Prince like I like Wizards tickets. I’d never pay for em, but if they came free in the mail one day, I’d take em.
I figure Cespedes will probably get In the 5 year, 40 mil range. If they needed to clear 2 mil to get 8 mil to cover him, then ok. If they need to clear 2 mil to give Manny 6 mil, I probably won’t set foot in the yard this year.
Actually, they are paying slightly more for Lindstrom and Hammel than they would with just Guthrie. This wasn’t just about not paying one player that much money out of principal, almost.
I dunno. The dark ages continue, apparently.
*wasn’t = was
extra letterssssss
About to sign Nick Johnson. Who said there are no more big moves left?