Not Much (In Many Ways)

With a couple of (frustrating) games between us and the end of Spring Training, we can look back with a nostalgic eye for the days when we were gnawing our teeth about the  struggles of some key players like Matt Wieters, Kevin Millwood, Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold, Jeremy Guthrie, and Nick Markakis. Markakis in particular got some venom for his appalling zero walks…but then showed us how foolish we all were by taking three already in the first two games. And once again we learn the important chronic lesson that Spring Training obviously counts for nothing.

We Might Have a Roberts Problem

Players with Brian Roberts’ composition generally don’t age the way you wish they would, and with Brian starting a big contract at 32 I was moderately concerned. That was before Roberts was sidelined with a back injury which he reportedly still hasn’t completely healed from. There’s no way to know how it’s going to affect Roberts in the short or long term, but the risk in his big contract (not to mention the risk of losing his production) just crashed through the roof.

Felix Pie’s Growing Up

The position player who looked by far the best in Spring was none other than the same guy who once forgot to throw the ball back into the infield. Yes, no matter who you ask everyone seems to think that Pie just looks like a baseball player ready to start to meet some of his great potential this season. With Nolan Reimold gimpy and not playing the best left field at the moment, Pie has the opportunity to put a deathgrip on the everyday job. Now, if only he could stay healthy and start to hit left-handers…

Brian Matusz is the AL’s It Boy

He doesn’t quite have the hype of Jason Heyward or Matt Wieters, but the national story about the Orioles was Matusz’s absolutely sensational spring, putting him into the unlikely positional of AL East pitcher as Rookie of the Year favorite. He certainly has me eating crow about opposing his promotion last fall, and I’m more excited to see what he does tonight in the Trop than I was even for Opening Night.

Tejada’s Working Hard

Miguel Tejada’s first tour of duty in Baltimore was, as they say on the Facebook, complicated. There’s no reason to get into the past, but how refreshing has it been to hear about Tejada working his tail off at third base getting ready for his most challenging season yet? I’m not sure what his defensive year is going to look like when all is said and done, and I suspect that none of us are going to be willing to accept that it was less than outstanding after we’ve all seen the sweat poured into the job, but I am cautiously confident that Tejada can and will put up some solid objective numbers.

Beautiful Sarasota

Finally, even I – who was admittedly an icy curmudgeon all spring – can’t help but admit that the move to Sarasota has all the workings of a beautiful friendship. The staff, media, players, minor leaguers, and fans were all absolutely ecstatic and with good reason. And with the very talented Janet Marie Smith working to put up something truly beautiful, the Orioles are finally, truly trending upward in Florida. Will it help on the field in the regular season? Will it help bring in big time free agents? I can’t say, but I also cannot deny progress when I see progress, and I see progress.

(photo)

I figured, I can write about whatever the heck I want. So let’s talk about Zach Britton, the up-and-comer who could very well be the face of the farm system in one year. The 22 year old lefty hasn’t gotten a ton of ink (and almost none from yours truly) just yet, but we’re probably on the teetering cusp of rapid change in that particular field.

So who is Zach Britton? In four years of steady progression in the farm system he has shown an increasing ability to strike batters out while struggling somewhat with the walks. He’s making the big jump to AA Bowie this year (often called the hardest and most important jump in the minors) and it will be interesting to see if his strong but unpolished fastball/slider/change repertoire can improve over the course of the year.

And – oh, yeah – the sinker. Britton has a power sinker that gave him a 3.38 GO/AO last year (over twice as good as Brad Bergesen!) and which more than anything else gives me supreme confidence that this kid can be real successful in cozy Camden Yards against the home run offenses in the AL East. And I think that Britton is just the prototype for the kind of pitcher the Orioles want to build a collection of because of the aforementioned ballpark and competition issues.

Consider that of the ten pitchers drafted in 2009 who saw mound time (including Matt Hobgood), only one of them (David Baker in the GCL) had a GO/AO ratio under 1.00, and as a group they gave up 0.3 HR/9. Are the Orioles making ground balls a priority when it comes to their pitching? I believe they are. We’ve heard all spring long about how certain guys need to “pitch down” and how important it is “not to elevate the ball”. And everyone in the organization has to be thrilled with Brad Bergesen, whose success is at least 50% his ground ball inducing ability.

A pitching staff that can limit home runs in the AL East is something that I have naughty dreams about. I really, truly believe that that would be just the kind of advantage that could propel the Orioles to the Promised Land, and Zach Britton is the living incarnation of that potential advantage.

As I mentioned, the move to AA is considered the most telling promotion, where guys with questionable command get found out by batters with better approaches. Walks have been the ivy holding Britton down so far in his career, so there is some potential for disaster this year, but the overwhelming ground ball rate and ability to miss bats with left-handed velocity and movement already makes Britton a relatively good bet to really make his mark this year.

We measured the Hot Stove moves accordingly. Kevin Millwood, Mike Gonzalez, and Garett Atkins all arrived in town with a charge to keep. Young players like Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and Brian Matusz (among others) enter the new year with the training wheels off and expectations raised accordingly.

That’s the idea, anyway.

The path from here to there remains clouded by reality. The Orioles still have holes to fill, and a lot of cards need to play right in order for 2010 to look and feel like a step forward. The process gets started Tuesday in Tampa Bay, and continues with a grueling first month schedule. The large task begins immediately.

As we wait, a question: what does Meaningful Improvement say to you?

Does it mean noticeable steps forward from the young players? Improved consistency? Avoiding a late-season collapse? Or does it mean significantly more wins? Do they need to sniff .500 for this season to be considered a success?

“All of the above” is the easy — and probably correct — answer, but I want to get specific. For me, that means wins.

2010 cannot be considered a success unless the team takes a significant step forward in the win column. I don’t see this as Lost Season III, and I don’t see it as a developmental year. I see it as the first year of the next era of Orioles baseball. Like any new venture, there will be struggle and hard times. They won’t compete for a playoff spot and probably won’t fare too well against the elite teams. But they must play better. That means more than 64 or 68 wins (’09 and ’08, respectively).

The last time the O’s won at least 75 games was 2004, when they reached 78 (they also came close in ’05 with 74). The last time they finished fewer than 20 games out of first was 2000 (13.5 games back). It’s fair to expect them to get back to 75 wins and finish less than 20 games out in 2010. Indeed, I actually expect them to do a little better than that — 78-80 wins wouldn’t surprise me at all.

I still care a great deal about continued development of young players and overall consistency. I’d even go so far as to say that those things matter more than wins. I think, though, that wins should and will come as a result. If they don’t, we’ll have some hard questions to ask.

This is a big season in Birdland. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous. I’d like, then, to get a full picture of the “pulse of the fan” as Opening Day approaches. Fire away with your expectations for the season and what Meaningful Improvement will look like to you. I’m eyeing benchmarks here. Let’s define our tools for measuring 2010.

If nothing else, we’ll need something to abandon if things don’t go according to plan.

(photo via Keith Allison)

In the interest of main page posterity, though, let’s take it from the top.

Two bits of news leaked out today regarding the eventual shape of the Orioles‘ 25-man roster:

– Craig Tatum beat Chad Moeller for the backup catching spot
– David Hernandez beat Chris Tillman for the fifth starter slot, with Jason Berken heading to the bullpen

The catching decision is somewhat odd, but only because we all assumed it was Moeller’s job. In reality it hardly matters, and if DT thinks Tatum is the guy then, hey, Tatum’s the guy. Fine with me.

As you might guess, I like the Hernandez decision. Not because I don’t believe in Tillman, of course, I just think Hernandez is the better choice right now. Maybe that’s no longer true come May. We’ll find out. Depth is always — always — good.

Roch also has some notes on further cuts but none of them are newsworthy. We’ve got a pretty good picture now of which 25 will go north.

Which begs the question: what do you think? Enough firepower to survive that grueling first month?

That’s the word via Britt Ghiroli, echoed by Roch. An impressive performance by David Hernandez today (five shutout innings versus the Red Sox, including escape from a bases-loaded, no-out jam) put the heat on Tillman, who struggled Friday. Jason Berken has stayed strong, as well, and remains in the mix.

DT says they’ll keep the competition open as long as possible and that no decision has yet been made. Don’t be surprised if it goes down to the last day of camp.

If you want the “best five” opening the season, you go with Hernandez. He’s got better stuff than Berken and has performed better this spring than Tillman. Given that all three were more or less the same in big league time last year, he’s got the edge. He’s also a few years older than Tillman and has more overall experience. It’s in the minors, yes, but he’s faced more batters.

That’s the way I’d go, and part of the reason is I’m not sure that handing Tillman a spot is the right idea. I don’t think it sends the right message to say “you were second, possibly third best in camp, but you’re our guy so you get the job.”

Looking at it another way, try to take Tillman’s pedigree as a top prospect and set it aside. Try to imagine that he came into camp as Hernandez’ equal. If that’s the scenario, who earned it?

Tillman will get his shot. We all know that. There’s no reason to force it, especially considering that we also know the O’s will need more than five starters this year. Let him head to AAA and continue proving he’s ready, then give him a spot when the time (inevitably) comes.

In the meantime, why not see what we really have with Hernandez?