Now that both players are off the market we can really and truly come to terms with the fact that there’s probably not going to be a “big” move for the O’s this offseason. There might be a trade, sure, but even if there is I can’t see it being a blockbuster. Rather, the legacy of Dan Duquette‘s first Hot Stove season is one of shoring up organizational depth, reconfiguring the front office, and making solid preliminary inroads to the international market. None of those things figure to pay obvious dividends at the major league level in 2012, although we might be pleasantly surprised.

Side note: there’s been chatter about Manny Ramirez but that comes from Ken Rosenthal and I trust his reporting on the Orioles about as much as I trust a Wall Street Journal editorial on economic policy. Which is to say I take it with a ten pound grain of salt.

So now, with Spring Training just about a month away, I have a question: how do we grade Hot Stove 2012? Are you satisfied, disgruntled, or something in between?

I have my thoughts but I’ll save them for the comments. Here’s to kicking off the season.

But there’s good news. We are now in the heady territory where we start to pack up the Hot Stove and turn our attention in earnest to that most lovely moment when pitchers and catchers report. February 18th for the Orioles if you don’t already have it marked on the calendar.

I’ve been kind of hands-off this year with the Hot Stove because, to be honest, there hasn’t been much to say. I do appreciate that Duquette has made strides in the international market and I like that the team appears to have more depth than at any point in recent memory. The problem is that today — before anyone takes the field — there’s no clear logic to how the 2012 team will be significantly improved from the one that let us down in 2011.

Perhaps that’s not fair. There is actually a clear path to improvement, it’s just not necessarily a likely path.

If one or more of the young pitchers finally emerge, and if Markakis rebounds, and if guys like Hardy and Wieters stay strong, and if Reimold finally gets a chance and cashes in on it, and if…you get the idea. If a lot of things happen, this team could surprise a few people. Maybe even us.

It’s not even crazy to think those things might happen. But I was hoping — still am — for something this offseason that would help tip the scale. Shoring up the foundation is great but it only goes so far.

That said, it’s not even February yet. A lot can and will happen between now and Opening Day. Whatever those moves end up being, I’m starting to feel that familiar and welcome excitement about spring and the return of baseball. Because, truly, that’s a great thing no matter the win-loss expectations.

Reason being, I’m not sure what I’ll have to add this time around. I’m kind of in “wait and see” or, more accurately, “wait and hope” mode. Every move they’ve made so far this offseason amounts to fiddling around the edges. I like that they’ve added depth and revamped some of the front office positions but I’m not going to lie to myself or anyone else and claim that there’s tremendous reason for excitement.

Nevertheless, I’m always grateful to the team for the chance to offer my two cents in a public forum. If you’re down at the convention center today, my panel starts at 5:25. Stop by and say hi — should be a fun time.

Indeed, it’s within that constant push and pull that something akin to life happens.

Where we tend to get trapped, and where this idea becomes difficult to truly embrace, is in perspective. Timeframes can be distressingly long and outcomes can seem impossible in the face of process.

Take the Orioles for example. We’re so deeply embedded in the down part of their cycle that it’s easy to forget how good they once were, how they once stood among the elite of the American League. I’m sure nobody thought in, say, 1984 that the same franchise that just won the World Series would eventually go on a streak of 14 straight losing seasons (and counting). It’s not even a matter of that notion seeming impossible at the time; rather, who would have thought to consider it?

Yet here we are. And right now, the notion of them ever winning another Series probably seems far enough away that nobody is seriously considering it.

Similarly, I doubt many folks thought in 2006 that our country’s long-held notions of economic stability and what it means to be employed would soon be shaken so badly that we’d have to spend years rebuilding them.

And on we go. And as we go, we must remember the cycle. No matter how abstract a concept it might seem.

I had a hell of a Q4 in 2011. It started when my car blew up. It continued with the transition to a new job, which involved both placing my own small business on hiatus and also leaving the family business I’d helped out with for years (no small matter). I took major steps toward buying my first house. And got a new (to me) car. And confronted, engaged, and/or embraced dozens of other, somewhat less significant considerations.

Including, of course, my ongoing remake of what The Loss Column is and means. I said in a previous post that my goal was to post less but post better. Having no designs on competing with sites like Camden Chat that do such a good job of covering the Orioles day-to-day, I wanted to return TLC to its roots as a hub for longer-form thought pieces and good conversation, while simultaneously broadening the coverage to include more sports and more culture.

I feel good about where that effort is headed. I do, however, need to post more often and that’s what you’ll see in 2012, especially as spring training and baseball season itself get going.

Up, down, up again. As ever.

2012, my friends, is going to be an interesting year. Of this I am certain. I know it will be for me and I know it will be in general. I hope that translates into good things for all of you.

Be focused, be steadfast. And as far as this place goes, remember that your contributions and your time spent reading are the reason TLC exists. As long as you’re here, I will be as well in one form or another.

Cheers.

PS — I also want to invite you to visit my new(ish) site, which includes a link to my personal blog, as well as a link to a 2012 project that I’m extremely stoked about, Confirmed Stock.

Even knowing that a big splash like Prince Fielder was off the table from the jump, I’m finding it hard to muster any real enthusiasm for the first few weeks of Dan Duquette‘s tenure. Now, you could say, “What did you expect? It’s early.” and you’d be right. I’m not indicting Duquette or the offseason. Not yet and probably not ever. I’m prepared to give the guy more than a few months.

Rather, I’m just kind of looking at the Orioles and Duquette right now and wondering if we’re going to see any obvious improvement between now and April. I feel like the best case scenario is probably a few more marginal/potentially decent moves (like the Tsuyoshi Wada signing) and behind-the-scenes improvement to the way the organization scouts and develops. That’d leave us in better shape for 2013 and beyond but looking at more or less the same team in 2012 that we had in 2011.

I think we all need to come to terms with that as our ceiling for now. Which is kind of a bummer, yes, but in the full analysis it’s probably better than living through another cycle of the broken hope like we did with Andy MacPhail. Different prism.

Still…I’m jonesing for a big move and knowing that I likely won’t get it means this time of year just isn’t as fun as it should be. Am I alone in that?