There’s info and speculation available at both MLBTradeRumors and Roch Kubatko’s blog.

First impression: let’s get this done.

I’m with JtG in thinking that it might not be a great straight-up deal, but I’d do it anyway. As much as I love Brian Roberts, there’s always a chance he won’t re-sign. That and the fact that he’s fully in his prime, meaning (a) his value will never be higher, and (b) his next long-term contract will include declining years. On top of that, I think we’d all agree that he kind of deserves a chance to play for a contender.

To get in return a quality young pitcher like Floyd — who just happens to have a similar pedigree to one Mark Teixeira — would be a giant coup for MacPhail and would go a long way towards solidifying this team’s competitive potential in the coming years. Roberts would absolutely not be easily replaced, but finding a second baseman is (at least in theory) easier than finding a guy like Floyd.

There has to be a way to make this happen, yeah?

Assuming it’s true, the list is now down to two teams who haven’t claimed to be out: Orioles and Nationals. The Yankees continue to lurk, but their role seems to be more about the needs of a hopeful media than anything else. The aforementioned Sox may or may not be out, but at the very least it’s clear they won’t be the team that outbids all others in order to make Scott Boras that much richer.

I become less certain each day that a huge bid for Teixeira is the best move. I would love to see him here, obviously, but the price is outlandish. There’s one point I come back to that makes me think it might be OK: while the price is ridiculous in 2009, it might look like a deal in, say, 2013. That assumes that (a) we’re in a position to contend in 2-3 years, and (b) MLB doesn’t experience widespread salary deflation.

Some folks assumed the Alex Rodriguez contract with the Rangers was a harbinger of continued escalation. In fact it ended up being the high-water mark from which everyone else subsequently retreated. That’s worth thinking about.

Risk/reward…risk/reward…risk/reward…

In other news, mercurial big man Daniel Cabrera has signed with the Nationals. I wish him well.

And (as the Sun notes in that Cabrera link), one of baseball’s all-time great characters has died. Dock Ellis will be missed. I once had a conversation with a director friend of mine about developing a screenplay based on Ellis’ life. It never materialized, but here’s hoping someone does it. There’s enough material there for something amazing.

Finally, the O’s are apparently in the running for both Braden Looper and Tim Redding. I’d have no problem with either one (or both), but I still think that making a play for Ben Sheets makes sense. Injury history be damned.

The two big pieces of news, as already discussed in the comments: AJ Burnett to the Yankees and the DC Cab to the free agency pool. Where to begin?

I’ll admit that the Yankees now look quite strong. But, I’m not that worried about it. The odds are that this spending spree will bite them in the ass. Maybe not before they win another World Series, but it will hurt them. I don’t have time right now to make a fully researched case (maybe I’ll try that soon), so what I’m really going on is the evidence of history. Teams that overspend to win rarely come out ahead in the long term. I’m fairly confident these Yanks will be no different.

As far as Cabrera, I’m cool with it. I like the guy and I actually hope he goes somewhere (not another AL East team of course) and does OK for himself. It was clear, though, that it wasn’t going to happen here. Best of luck, big fella.

As for the elephant in the room Mark Teixeira, I still think we have a good chance of seeing him in orange-and-black next year. I read somewhere (the Washington Post I think) that our offer was “low ball.” Total nonsense. We came in at one less year than the other teams, but the average annual value is right in line at $20-21 million. That’s highly competitive by any measure, and this idea that he’s a “long shot” is just lazy. It’s a process, and it’s still playing out.

Finally, here’s a funny nugget about the Ryan Freel trade, from this article about the Reds:

One fan got on Jocketty for trading popular outfielder Ryan Freel to the Orioles this week for catcher Ramon Hernandez.

“No. 1, we needed a catcher,” Jocketty replied. “Ryan has pretty much been hurt the last two years. I know it was not a popular trade but I think people will be happy with Ramon Hernandez.”

Keep telling yourself that, Walt.

Two things:

One, I respect Schmuck but this smells like the old-school newspaper columnist in him coming out. This is a half-sourced but extremely newsworthy claim, and there was a time when this was the kind of thing you’d do to “sell papers”. We’re in grain of salt territory for sure.

Two, even if it is true I’m still pretty impressed with the effort. Jury’s still out, though, until the rotation starts to take shape.

Totally unrelated, but anyone who’s ever been interested in skateboarding will want to check out my latest Examiner piece.

Hot Stove!

That’s a far cry, though, from the situation Hampton found himself in back in 2001, when he signed an eight-year, $121 million deal with the Rockies. Since then, he’s pitched more than 190 innings only once (2002), having been hobbled by a series of injuries. He did win 14 games in ’04 and 13 the next year — both for Atlanta — but never lived up to anything close to the promise of his hefty deal. By any measure, the past eight years have been a bust.

Regardless of whether or not Hampton regains his form and stays healthy, his career serves as a lesson for any team considering a long-term deal for a pitcher with injury history. A team like, I don’t know, the Orioles perhaps.

It’s hard not to think of Hampton when the prospect of a four or five-year deal for A.J. Burnett comes up.

Every pitcher is an injury risk. That’s the nature of the position, and also part of the reason that guys who happen to be durable tend to stick around even when their stats fail to impress. The question, then, isn’t one of avoiding risk, it’s one of how much risk to take on.

The more I think about Burnett, the more I think he’s probably not worth it. At least, not at four or five years. If there’s a way to convince him to come here for three years and maybe an option year, fantastic. I’d even overbid on the annual value in that scenario. But for a young, rebuilding team to guarantee four or five years (and, what, $17 mil/per?) to a pitcher strikes me as the kind of unwise allocation of resources that got us into this mess back in ’98-’99.

Then again, the O’s backed off of Aaron Sele because of injury risk, and I seem to recall him having some fine years after that.

In other words, I’m glad it’s not my responsibility.

Update: In news from the “unimportant and not unexpected” department, none of the O’s free agents (Millar, Payton, Cintron, Castro) have been offered arbitration. Odds are that none of them come back, although Millar is a possibility.

Also, Luis Hernandez has signed a minor league contract with the Royals.